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[MOD POST] 2019 STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS

It is that time of year again, where we mods descend from the heavens to address the...common folk
House Keeping
Every year this ends up being a major part of our annual pre-season post and this year is no different. A lot of the discussions we have in the premium mod lounge relate to the behaviour of the users in /NRL. We are always striving to locate where and when issues arise and when they do, how do we address them?
One of the biggest complaints we get is that /NRL has changed. That we should take it back to what it was. We have grown a lot in the past few years, and I remember a time where I could recognise 90% of regular posters and a match thread was easily readable. Those times have changed, and we must realise that with growth comes change.
The mate’s in a pub vibe will always be the cornerstone of this sub and as such we would like you to consider how your interactions with other users would be perceived in that pub setting. We know that this saying is often mocked within the sub, but we really do believe it is the best way for us moderators to keep things in perspective.
How do we do that? If you are in a pub and acting like a dick to other people IRL, you can expect repercussions. If the bar staff don't pull you in line the other patrons will. Excuses like “I’ve been drinking here for years”, "they just need to get used to me and how I act" do not give you a free ride to be an arsehole.
In the past, we have been guilty of letting users that have been around for longer get away with things that we would not accept from new users. This has inadvertently created a double standard and we are looking to correct that this year. We all know the rules of the sub are in the sidebar and we all know what they are. Old or new, if you break the rules do not be surprised when the mods get involved. P.S Surprisingly enough, much like a bar, if you don’t heed advice or the verdict the first time around and come back screaming and yelling at us, we are less likely to re-review the situation. It’s always better to let cooler heads prevail.
Keeping your identity safe
We have noticed an alarming trend of users reporting that they have had their identity "exposed" and that they have been harassed by other sub-members both on other websites or even in real life. If you feel that this is happening to you, please let us know as soon as possible.
We will come down on this sort of behaviour swiftly and harshly, in the few rare occurrences in which this sort of thing has happened, the offending user tried to make it out like it was a funny joke, and was just having some fun…that is not funny and not fun, if you think it is, perhaps this sub isn’t for you?
Summary
In short, be kind to one another, everyone is a real person behind that computer screen or phone. This subreddit is a place for us all to enjoy when we want to talk some footy, escape the real world or just have a break when real life is getting us down.
Transitioning into the new season
With pre-season rapidly approaching the regular season rules will be coming back into effect. We will be monitoring shit-posting much more diligently from now on and while we don’t have the time to message each shit poster individually to explain the reasons why your “What if Corey Norman was allowed to snort rack BUT in exchange was only allowed to grubber?” post has been removed. The regular footy threads will still be posted for all that hard-hitting discussion. The same goes for editorialising titles, as with Shit Posting, too many strikes and you are outtahere, to use an American Cricket Ball term.
Baiting
We already touched on poor behaviour, but we will just stress this again, baiting other users into a fight or rehashing the past just to get a rise out of them, will more than likely see you sit some time out from the sub, we are getting to the point that especially if you have been around for a few seasons, you have seen this sort of post before and have no excuse for it.
Sub Changes
We are going to keep the regular threads that operate now, please always bear in mind, not every question needs a stand-alone post, especially ones about creating a team based on X attribute. If you have a question that you think only requires a definitive answer or is extremely open-ended, it probably is better in one of the regular question threads.
Big Chat Tuesdays, this will become a twice a month post, the reception has been great and I think those who use it either as a person saying something or someone handing out advice, everyone is getting something out of it.
Punting Thursdays, this will make a return, as always, we do not condone standalone threads about bettering or gambling, save it for the match thread, off topic and this thread. The concept is the same, just tell people your bets and why you think they will come off. HOWEVER we will remove any posts leading to pay-for-tips/bets services, if your bets are that good, you can give them out for free, your obviously making enough off them if that is the case.
DRUMROLL PLEASE
We are looking for a new mod, holy shit, someone in this cavalcade of ugly, UGLY Redditors will ascend to the god’s domain. If you honestly believe you are capable and willing (and let's face it none of you are, scum) please message us outlining why. We will take into consideration time and activeness within the sub, as well as your history as a contributor, bet ya wish ya didn’t spew in the bathrooms now hey?
Secondly, we are looking for a CSS guru or capable user, someone who can help us re-design this sub’s look, you will probably not have full moderator access, to begin with, but in all honesty that may be nice, you bunch are a fucking chore. However, you probably will be elevated to ~god~ mod status at some point if you aren’t a cunt.
Anyway, welcome to the 2019 season, we hope you enjoy your stay here, be nice to the newcomers, and don’t feed the Goobs or pet the Tones. You are all a bunch of good eggs (I don’t see you as people, merely sustenance for my continued survival).
P.S As the missus’ says “It’s just a game” don’t get upset if they lose 😉
submitted by aces_of_splades to nrl [link] [comments]

NRL Betting & Tipping Value Finder - Round 16

NRL Betting & Tipping Value Finder
A quick note about me: I'm a semi-professional NRL gambler, and as a result I do a lot of statistical analysis, some of which I've started to share with this sub.
The main reason behind this post is to try and provide some objective team rankings, as well as an accompanying discussion which can be used for anyone who enjoys a casual bet, or to help with tipping.
I'm more than happy to answer any questions about the data that goes into forming these rankings, or any other gambling/tipping questions.
 
Performance so far this year
If you had an initial investment of $100, and bet $10 per game:
Best Value
You would have an ROI (return on investment) of 18.60%;
Team Odds Outcome Stake Win Running Balance
Rabbitohs (Rd 6) $3.20 WIN $10.00 $32.00 $122.00
Bulldogs (7) $2.70 LOSE $10.00 $112.00
Eels (7) $2.35 WIN $10.00 $23.50 $125.50
Dragons (8) $1.81 WIN $10.00 $18.10 $133.60
Panthers (9) $1.82 LOSE $10.00 $123.60
Bulldogs (10) $2.00 WIN $10.00 $20.00 $133.60
Warriors (10) $1.75 LOSE $10.00 $123.60
Rabbitohs (10) $2.40 WIN $10.00 $24.00 $137.60
Broncos (11) $2.40 WIN $10.00 $24.00 $151.60
Storm (11) $1.47 LOSE $10.00 $141.60
Raiders (12) $1.73 WIN $10.00 $17.30 $148.90
Knights (12) $2.70 LOSE $10.00 $138.90
Cowboys (13) $2.05 WIN $10.00 $20.50 $149.40
Knights (14) $3.20 LOSE $10.00 $139.40
Knights (15) $3.82 LOSE $10.00 $129.40
Bulldogs (15) $1.69 LOSE $10.00 $119.40
Samoa Line (Rep) $1.92 LOSE $10.00 $109.40
QLD Line (Rep) $1.92 WIN $10.00 $19.2 $118.60
Worst Value
You would have an ROI of -62.7% ;
Team Odds Outcome Stake Win Running Balance
Sharks (Rd 6) $2.55 LOSE 10 $90.00
Broncos (6) $2.55 WIN 10 $25.50 $105.50
Panthers (7) $1.49 LOSE 10 $95.50
Knights (7) $2.60 WIN 10 $26.00 $111.50
Sea Eagles (8) $1.60 LOSE 10 $101.50
Cowboys (8) $1.42 LOSE 10 $91.50
Eels (9) $2.20 LOSE 10 $81.50
Sea Eagles (10) $2.58 WIN 10 $25.80 $97.30
Raiders (11) $3.25 LOSE 10 $87.30
Cowboys (11) $2.05 LOSE 10 $77.30
Eels (12) $2.70 LOSE 10 $67.30
Titans (12) $3.60 LOSE 10 $57.30
Tigers (13) $1.80 LOSE 10 $47.30
Sea Eagles (14) $2.30 LOSE 10 $37.30
Sea Eagles (15) $3.25 LOSE 10 $27.30
Broncos (15) $2.50 WIN 10 $25.00 $42.30
Fiji Line (Rep) $1.92 LOSE 10 $32.30
 
The Ratings in this table are an objective measure of each team. The numbers equate to how many points (per game) a team is above, or below average at a neutral venue. The metric uses a few different variables to calculate a teams rating, but are largely a measure of a teams performance this year, taking into account the strength of their opponents and the difference between home/away games played. The ratings are also weighted to place an emphasis on more recent games, to provide a more accurate prediction of a teams current performance.
Rank Team Rating
1 Dragons 9.78
2 Rabbitohs 8.99
3 Roosters 4.60
4 Storm 4.55
5 Panthers 4.24
6 Sharks 3.32
7 Raiders 2.87
8 Warriors 0.34
9 Broncos -1.64
10 Titans -3.13
11 Cowboys -3.49
12 Bulldogs -3.58
13 Tigers -5.17
14 Knights -5.86
15 Sea Eagles -7.03
16 Eels -8.85
 
Last Week
I had QLD as the value team in Origin, which was correct, although the line of +8.5 was the safest option and I’m glad my action was tied up outside of H2H markets. Realistically QLD played well enough to win however their handful of offensive and defensive lapses proved costly. History will remember this series as redemptive series for NSW, but, regardless of the result of the 3rd game, I’m not convinced NSW were the better team overall but rather some small moments leant in their direction. Something to remember for next year; assuming NSW will remain largely unchanged they will canter into the series as short favourites, yet this will not be indicative of just how close this series was.
Also, to kick off Rep Round I had Fiji (line) as the worst value team which was probably the worst value bet of the whole season. Also, I had Samoa (line) largely because of their halves quality in comparison to Tonga. I am guilty of being a little too cute with some tips and forgetting how impactful a dominant forward pack can be on a game. That was one of these times.
 
Best Value
Sydney Roosters
Catching $2.20 at a neutral venue (Adelaide Oval) is a very nice price for a Roosters team which despite underperforming to begin the season, has continued to improve. Teams who are integrating important members of their play style will usually struggle initially, yet with continuity comes improvement – and their first few games are not an indicator of the Roosters quality.
Odds: $2.20 V Storm; Line: +2.
Gold Coast Titans
The Titans have progressed nicely through the last few weeks, and while most of their trundling of the Bulldogs has been blamed on the Bulldogs, the Titans were very good. After finally having consistency within their team in basically every position, they have improved, and catching >$2.50 against the Tigers is a nice place to be.
Odds: $2.65 @ Tigers; Line: +6
 
Worst Value
Brisbane Broncos
Despite playing at home; I would not have the Broncos as a shorter priced favourite against a Raiders outfit who are charging.
Odds: $1.65 V Raiders; Line: -3.5
submitted by cookedcowboys to nrl [link] [comments]

NRL Betting & Tipping Value Finder - ROUND 10

NRL Betting & Tipping Value Finder
A quick note about me: I'm a semi-professional NRL gambler, and as a result I do a lot of statistical analysis, some of which I've started to share with this sub.
The main reason behind this post is to try and provide some objective team-rankings, as well as an accompanying discussion which can be used for anyone who enjoys a casual bet, or to help with tipping (which is quite the rollercoaster at the moment).
I'm more than happy to answer any questions about the data that goes into forming these rankings, or any-other gambling/tipping questions.
 
Performance so far this year
Although we are working off a very small sample, so far this year:
If you bet even stakes on my best value teams you would have an 52.67\% ROI (return on investment)
If you bet even stakes on my worst value teams you would have a -26.43\% ROI
 
The Ratings in this table are an objective measure of each team. The numbers equate to how many points (per game) a team is above, or below average. The metric uses a few different variables to calculate a teams rating, but are largely a measure of a teams performance this year, taking into account the strength of their opponents and the difference between home/away games played. The ratings are also weighted to place an emphasis on more recent games, to provide a more accurate prediction of a teams current performance.
Rank Team Rating Change
1 Dragons 16.00 +1
2 Storm 10.68 -1
3 Rabbitohs 7.64 --
4 Warriors 6.49 +1
5 Panthers 1.25 -1
6 Raiders 0.95 +4
7 Broncos 0.49 -1
8 Bulldogs -0.23 +3
9 Roosters -0.60 --
10 Sharks -0.91 -3
11 Tigers -2.41 -5
12 Cowboys -3.03 --
13 Eels -5.99 --
14 Knights -6.12 --
15 Titans -8.44 --
16 Sea Eagles -12.47 --
 
Best Value
Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
The Bulldogs have been unlucky so far this year through both schedule disadvantage (only 3 games so far at home) and close losses (2 points Panthers, 4 Points Rabbitohs, 2 Points Broncos) and track as a much better team than their wins suggest. Surprisingly they head into their match with the Eels as outsiders, and represent some extreme value.
Odds: $2.00 Home V Eels; Line: +1.5
New Zealand Warriors
The bookies have had a difficult time valuing the Warriors so far this year - but that's what a history of wild inconsistency will give you. The Warriors are clearly one of the best 4 teams in the league this season, and as seen in the rankings above - there is a vast distance between the top 4, and the rest of the NRL. This week they face the Roosters at the recently invigorated Mt Smart, and at only slight favorites - they are in value-town.
Odds: $1.75 Home V Roosters; Line: -2.0
Late mail: South Sydney Rabbitohs
 
Worst Value - Keep Away
Manly Sea Eagles
The Eagles are at 'Home' this week against Brisbane at Suncorp, so basically - they are playing an extra away game. Manly have been clearly the worst team in the league so far this year, are playing away against the 7th Ranked team, and bizarrely head in as only 5.5 point outsiders. I'm not actually sure some bookies are aware that the game is at Suncorp and are mathematically considering the Sea Eagles as the home team. Either way - I would avoid putting a cent anywhere near them.
Odds: $2.58 Away @ Broncos; Line: +5.5
submitted by cookedcowboys to nrl [link] [comments]

The Punters Club Grand Final Edition: Brisbane Broncos v North Queensland Cowboys

G'day folks and welcome to the last NRL based punters club of the year! What a ride it's been so far this year and as for the future that'll be up for discussion next week.
The only certainty in the first all-Queensland Telstra Premiership Grand Final is that at the end of 80 minutes two great warriors who happen to be close friends will find each other out and share an exhausted embrace.
For Justin Hodges or Johnathan Thurston it will be a moment of sheer elation and the realisation of a truly unique achievement; the other will be left in tears barely able to lift his head.
The 'not guilty' verdict delivered by the judiciary on Tuesday night affords Hodges to at least lead the Brisbane Broncos out for one more time in his 251st and final match with the possibility of ending his career in a manner few are privileged to experience.
For Thurston, his burning desire to deliver North Queensland a maiden premiership that formed part of the reason he stayed at the Cowboys would elevate his standing in the game to a level few in history have ever reached.
One of many other intriguing sub-plots surrounds the two coaches: the master and his former apprentice.
Paul Green worked as a halves coach under Wayne Bennett at the Broncos from 2005-2008 before he was promoted to an assistant coach in 2009 under Ivan Henjak. He took Wynnum Manly to back-to-back Intrust Super Cup titles before joining the Roosters, where he coached the under-20s team to a Preliminary Final and served as an assistant in the NRL team's premiership.
And then there's Wayne.
After six years south of the border Bennett's return to Brisbane could barely have been scripted more perfectly with the master coach shaping a competitive team in 2014 into one with an almost unbreakable resolve.
Since Round 5 the Broncos have been permanently situated in the top three on the NRL table and are now 80 minutes from delivering the club's seventh premiership and an eighth for Bennett.
Sentiment has been running almost exclusively the way of the Cowboys but with big brother Brisbane standing in their way will it ultimately prove to be a fractured fairytale?
Watch Out Broncos: Not only is the left side of the Cowboys attack their most effective weapon it is also their most secure, having scored 45 tries and conceded just 19 over the course of 2015. The addition of Lachlan Coote at fullback and Johnathan Thurston's combination with Gavin Cooper allows the Cowboys to throw good attacking shapes at the opposition defence with options short, long or out the back. Antonio Winterstein's 16 tries is the best single-season haul of his career, Kane Linnett has scored 10 tries for just the third time while Cooper's two tries against the Storm took his tally to 11 for the year. Of the 68 tries the Broncos have conceded this season 22 have come down the right edge of Matt Gillett, Ben Hunt, Justin Hodges and Jordan Kahu and they'll need to be on song on Sunday.
Watch Out Cowboys: Momentum is everything in a grand final and scoreboard pressure mounts earlier than normal which is why the Cowboys can ill afford to give the team that misses the least number of tackles any kind of a head-start. In the opening 10 minutes of their games this season the Broncos have scored 11 tries and conceded just two but the figures read vastly different on the North Queensland side of the ledger. The Cowboys have conceded 14 tries in the opening 10-minute period of their games this season, the worst period of the game for them defensively. Besides their 39-0 win over the Sharks in Week Two of the finals the Cowboys have conceded the first try in every one of their games since Round 21; a dangerous habit to be in heading into the premiership decider.
Key Match-up: Ben Hunt v Johnathan Thurston.
As the two favourites for the Clive Churchill Medal it is clear these are the two men with the fortunes of their respective teams resting squarely on their shoulders. Following a breakout season in 2014 Hunt has formed a halves combination with Anthony Milford the envy of almost every other team in the competition but the numbers show why Thurston remains the master for now. Where Hunt excels in taking the line on himself (10 line breaks and 12 tries) Thurston is the master puppeteer, orchestrating 33 line-break assists and 33 try assists compared to Hunt's tally of 15 and 16 respectively. No two players have kicked the ball more in general play in 2015 than Hunt (354) and Thurston (296) and it could be that area of their game which is most telling under the greatest pressure.
History: Played 42; Brisbane 29, Cowboys 11, Drawn 2.
Having lost the previous three finals encounters against the Cowboys the Broncos scored one for the southerners when they won the Qualifying Final at Suncorp Stadium 16-12 in Week One of the finals series. The home side has been victorious on each of the three occasions they have met in 2015 which counts for exactly zero when they meet on neutral territory for the first time on Sunday. Of the four finals the Broncos have played at ANZ Stadium they have won three and lost one while the Cowboys' finals record at ANZ sits at two wins and three losses.
Did You Know: Broncos forward Sam Thaiday stated early in the week that the Cowboys bring the best out in Brisbane and the numbers show that is the case for both teams. When compared to their season average the Broncos perform better against the Cowboys in completion rate, dummy-half runs, line breaks, penalties conceded, errors, kick metres, offloads and effective tackles. For North Queensland, their numbers improve against the Broncos when it comes to completion rate, errors, penalties conceded, kick metres and effective tackles. Two of the best teams of the season at their best on grand final day is a mouth-watering prospect for all footy fans.
What Are The Odds: Broncos $1.88, Cowboys $1.96. There has been twice as much money wagered on the Broncos in comparison to the Cowboys as far as head-to-head betting at Sportsbet is concerned. Brisbane by 13+ is the most popular option in margin betting while Ben Hunt is the best backed player in the first try-scorer market ahead of Broncos teammate Corey Oates. Latest odds at Sportsbet.com.au
Match Officials: Referee: Gerard Sutton; Assistant Referee: Ben Cummins; Touch Judges: Brett Suttor and Steve Carrall; Video Referees: Bernard Sutton and Luke Patten.
Televised: Grand Final Day coverage starts on Channel Nine from 10am and in HD on Gem.
How We See It: There will come a time late in the game when a moment changes the course of history. Every indicator suggests this is not a game that will be decided with a few furlongs left to run but one in which the winner won't be clear until the shadows of the finishing post. A final masterstroke from JT; a slice of Milford magic; a try-saving act of desperation from Parker; an inspiring charge from Scott that gets his team moving forward as his teammates struggle to find their feet. It will come down to a moment and when that moment comes it will join a pantheon of grand final heroics frozen in time for eternity. Broncos by four points.
submitted by DreadlockedAussie to nrl [link] [comments]

A 3-Fold $20,000 Multi [Mat's Big Bets]

It’s time we upped the stakes for a multi that can double your money. Straight up we have a $20,000 3-fold multi which last I checked was paying $2.02 & I'm giving you an 8 hour advance warning before the first bet starts seen as a lot of people have said that they always miss my posts. Screenshot: http://i.imgur.com/GjWpvHM.png - the reason they're split it up is because the odds change during. The multi consists of both NRL & the NBA, both of which I follow religiously. The multi is:
These are in chronological order so if you're against multis you can individualize the bets. Do note that the NBA bets are outrights meaning if they do get up, they wont pay out until the last 1/2 weeks of this month.
NRL - Australian Kangaroos vs New Zealand Kiwis - PICK: AUSTRALIAN KANGAROOS (edit: Australia wins)
First off we're touching the NRL Test Match which kicks off tonight at 8pm AEDST (around 7 hours from now). The Kiwis are playing away from home and without a lot of star players such as Kieran Foran, Tuivasa-Sheck, Kenny-Dowall along with a whole list of others. Basically they're understrengthed and their star players who are in the team are out of form such as Shaun Johnson whereas the Kangaroos are full strength. I like the Kiwis forward pack but their halves are just outclassed. Johnson vs Cronk. Smith vs Brown. Thurston vs Tohu Harris, LOL. The Aussies have lost 4 straight and will be looking to make a statement against a Kiwi team which is out of form, out of class and missing key players. I'm confident Australia will win.
NBA - Eastern Conference Winner - PICK: CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
To make the Eastern Conference Finals, the Cavs need to win the series against Atlanta where they're currently 2-0 up after beating them twice by a combined 36 points. Both games haven't even looked close. I'm not even going to go into detail about this series because I see the Cav's extending this 2-0 lead and winning this series in 4/5 games.
In the Eastern Conference finals they'll take on either Miami or Toronto. They're locked up at 1 game a piece at the moment. A lot of people have tipped Miami to win the series but either way, I think the Cavs can easily beat both teams. For this particular bet, I do hope Miami wins as their record is worse than Toronto's and I think an easier team to beat.
NBA - Western Conference Winner - PICK: GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Currently without Steph Curry due to injury, the Warriors are still 2-0 up on Portland. They struggled in the first 3Q of the 2nd game, but came flying home to take the 2nd game by 11 points after at one stage being down by as many as 18. If Portland had any shot at winning this series they had to take a game at Oracle but they just couldn't do it. For those unaware, this 2015/2016 Warriors team is literally the best NBA team ever. Their record this year was 73 wins, 9 losses which surpasses Michael Jordans 95/96 Bulls team. You think the best team in history will lose a series against the 5th seed who went 44 and 38? I don't think so.
After this series, we have either the Spurs or the Thunder & Steph Curry should be back by then. I'm honestly not sure who I'd want to verse in the WCF. Spurs are the best defensive team in the competition and my personal favorite team; I wear my Patty Mills jersey every game but I don't think they can beat the Warriors in a best of 7. OKC has KD & WB who can go off at any given night, but consistency is key & doing that over a 7 game stretch? Again, I don't think so. The only concern for the Western Conference Finals is if Curry re-injures his ankle and can't play. Can the Warriors beat either of those teams without him? It'll be really tough, but I still give them the edge of 7 games.
Overall
I haven't gone over every individual stat, player or record in this post as it's just getting too long but believe me when I say that I did my research before putting this $20,000 multi on. My confidence level is around 80% at the moment, if/when the Kangaroos win tonight, it'll jump up to 90%. Also don't forget that you can cash out at any time, so if/when the Aussies win tonight, you can cash out your winnings. If Steph Curry comes back and goes off, you can expect the Warriors odds to drop from the current $1.50 to around $1.35/$1.40 which again, you can cash out on.
I'm also happy & more than willing to answer any questions about the multi, clear anything up etc in the comments.
EDIT 1: Australia just beat New Zealand 16-0. That's the first leg of the multi winning. I'll be constantly updating this thread.
EDIT 2: Cavs just beat Atlanta in Game 3 which puts them up 3-0 in the series. 1 more win & they advance to the ECF.
EDIT: 3: Cavs just beat Atlanta @ Atlanta which means they've just sweeped the series and advance to the ECF. They'll take on either the Raptors or the Heat who are tied at 2-2 in the series. Some good news is that it looks to go the distance so the Cavs will get a bit of time off. In other news, Warriors are still leading Portland 2-1, Curry isn't back yet, and is "doubtful" for Game 4.
EDIT 4: GSW just beat Portland @ Portland in OT to lead the series 3-1. They'll now go back to Oakland where they'll have the chance to close out the series. Steph Curry put up an amazing 40-9-8 including 17 points in OT indicating he's definitely back. He started out pretty rusty (I think he went 0-10 from 3 at one point?) but finished strong. He should be fitter for the next game. The Warriors if they can close it out at home would most likely get a bit more rest than SAS or OKC as they're locked up at 2-2 and look to go 7.
EDIT 4.5: As of today, I could Cash Out for a profit of $1,183.46 however I'm in this until the end.
EDIT: 5: GSW just beat Portland to take the series 4-1 which means they advance to the WCF. Cavs have also advanced so the multi is still going strong, both teams into their respective finals. Cavs are looking likely to face the Raptors (up 3-2 with the next game in Miami & then if needed, the last game in Toronto). Warriors are looking like they'll face OKC who are up 3-2 and will play tomorrow at home. In terms of cashing out, I wont be doing it but at the moment I could cash out for a $3,605.80 profit. I'm still really confident in the bet.
EDIT 6: OKC just eliminated Spurs so we have the WCF matchup of GSW vs OKC. The odds for the Warriors to win the West have dropped to $1.24. Yesterday I could have cashed out for a $3,605.80 profit. Today I could cash out for a $5,728.80 profit.
EDIT 7: The Raptors just beat Miami to win the series so we have the set up ready for the conference finals. It's Warriors vs OKC, Raptors vs Cavs. I'm still extremely confident about this multi which is why the Cash Out offer right now could give me $7,739.29 but I'm not taking it.
EDIT 8: So OKC beat GSW today. Warriors were up by 13 at the half, but struggled in the 2nd half. It's a setback, but this is a best of 7 so it's not all doom & gloom. I don't think anyone was expecting this series to be easy so despite what you'll hear, all of the overreactions etc, this multi is very much alive - the Warriros are still favorites to win the series & the Championship. Cavs play tomorrow.
EDIT 9: Cavs just destroyed the Raptors 115-84. Held DeRozan to 18 and Lowry to just 8. Starters were good & the bench was really productive. Cavs also outrebounded Toronto 45-23. I'm honestly not worried at all about this series, the only one to keep an eye on is GSW vs OKC which play Game 2 tomorrow. I could also cash out today for a profit of $2,268.52 even though GSW lost Game 1 but yeah, I'm not going to do that.
EDIT 10: GSW just beat OKC by 27 points in Game 2. I can cash out right now for a $8,939.92 profit but that's not going to happen. I trust in this multi & these teams. A lot of people overreacted after Game 1, I could have as well & taken the $2,268.52 profit but I didn't.
EDIT: 11: OKC just returned the favor and beat GSW by 28 points in Game 3. It's concerning & Game 4 will be huge for this series, either OKC takes a big lead at 3-1 or GSW break back to level it at 2-2 & become huge favorites again. Warriors have never lost back to back games this series but Draymond Green might be out for the next game after kicking Steven Adams in the balls. We'll have to see whether or not he gets a suspension. Game 4 for the Warriors is a must win. If they lose it, I'll be worried & I don't seem them winning the series. I'm not even worried about the Eastern Conference Finals, Cavs are up 2-1 & will win. As of today I can still cash out for a $2,524.22 profit but I wont be touching that. Riding this all the way.
**EDIT 12: So OKC blew out GSW again. Not good. My last edit said that if the Warriors didn't win, I'd be concerned & I definitely am now. Can't change any decisions from the past, so just have to look forward. So here's the play I'll be doing from here. At the moment I can cash out for $10,949.89 which is a loss of $10k. I wont take it just yet. What I'll do is stay all in until the Cavs vs Raptors game is finished tomorrow and hope that the Cavs win. This will take there odds from the current $1.07 region to closer to $1.02/$1.03 if it's a blow out. After that, I'll be keeping it all on the line the next day for when the Warriors take on the Thunder at home. Here we'll be hoping that the Warriors win which would reduce their odds again. From there, I'll take the cash out which could be maybe $12-$15k depending on the score. I've lost faith in the Warriors winning at OKC. After that, I'll work a few more bets to break even but again, this is providing that Cavs beat the Raptors in Game 5 at home and Warriors beat the Thunder at Game 5 at home. If either team loses than that's this multi over & done with.
To anyone concerned about me: you only bet with what you can afford to lose. I only gamble with my own money & can more than afford to lose this amount, so don't send me any concerned PM's.**
EDIT 13: GSW wins at home. I now have the opportunity to cash out for $15,182.30 which I will be taking. Why not wait until tomorrow after the Cavs vs Raptors game? Too risky. There is very little for me to win by letting that game go. If Cavs win, it will add like $200 to the total, if Cavs lose, it could be a thousand or more gone from the cash out offer. I don't think the Warriors can win at OKC. Even playing at Oakland, KD & RWB combined for 71 points. I'm also worried about Draymond Green. Something is up with him. OKC was so close at the end of the 3rd & unfortunately I see them taking this series. Best for me to get out now, own my $6k loss (better than losing $21k) and move on to the next bet. Like always, you win some, you lose some.
EDIT: Successful cash out: http://i.imgur.com/FZW2fKa.png - stress free weekend!
FINAL EDIT: Warriors win. The multi was successful, but I cashed out early. Ugh. MRW the Warriors win the Western Conference Finals after cashing out early.
submitted by MatHatesGlitter to puntersclub [link] [comments]

Subreddit Stats: nrl top posts from 2016-09-28 to 2017-09-26 13:50 PDT

Period: 363.18 days
Submissions Comments
Total 1000 87141
Rate (per day) 2.75 239.31
Unique Redditors 365 3168
Combined Score 64485 611652

Top Submitters' Top Submissions

  1. 4052 points, 46 submissions: ScaredOfGreatness
    1. Cronk's kick for Holmes (294 points, 102 comments)
    2. TPJ flick pass for James Roberts try (263 points, 49 comments)
    3. Johnston's foot race with Vunivalu (217 points, 56 comments)
    4. Michael Morgan's match winning field goal (154 points, 66 comments)
    5. Vunivalu's full length try assist for JAC (150 points, 36 comments)
    6. Dugan makes a try saver after Tedesco beats 3 tackles (144 points, 41 comments)
    7. Rabbitohs score on the last tackle after 2 kicks, 3 offloads & 50m (140 points, 24 comments)
    8. Jason Taumalolo finding a gap (124 points, 47 comments)
    9. Cameron McInnes finishes a Dragons team try (123 points, 11 comments)
    10. Ruan Sims picks up & dumps Karina Brown (108 points, 34 comments)
  2. 3936 points, 23 submissions: NRLgamethread
    1. 2016 Grand Final - Melbourne Storm vs Cronulla Sharks | Match Discussion Thread (1081 points, 4897 comments)
    2. 2017 State of Origin - Game 1 | Game Thread (905 points, 5458 comments)
    3. 2017 State of Origin - Game 2 | Game Thread (513 points, 5818 comments)
    4. 2016 Grand Final | Post Match Discussion Thread (192 points, 910 comments)
    5. 2017 Origin Series - Post Game Thread (149 points, 1854 comments)
    6. AFL Grand Final Thread - Bulldogs vs Souths (147 points, 731 comments)
    7. 2017 State of Origin Game 1 - Post match Thread (137 points, 964 comments)
    8. 2017 State of Origin II - Post Game Thread (128 points, 1711 comments)
    9. 2017 Auckland Nines Day 1 - Discussion Thread (72 points, 4007 comments)
    10. State of Origin - Game 2 | Pre-Game Discussion Thread (59 points, 644 comments)
  3. 2818 points, 52 submissions: Aussieguy727
    1. Beau Ryan being a legend (181 points, 89 comments)
    2. Laurie Daley sacked (177 points, 137 comments)
    3. 'I'm coming home': Marshall signs deal to return to Tigers (155 points, 102 comments)
    4. Class act by Paul Gallen (119 points, 78 comments)
    5. Wests Tigers announce Ivan Cleary as Head Coach (83 points, 129 comments)
    6. This really hurts (76 points, 42 comments)
    7. Kenny Edwards likes to train like its game day (72 points, 8 comments)
    8. Parra fan at WWE Raw (63 points, 71 comments)
    9. Luke Lewis re-signs for 1 more year (62 points, 39 comments)
    10. Josh Reynolds tells team mates he's off to the Tigers (60 points, 143 comments)
  4. 2673 points, 44 submissions: AutoModerator
    1. 2017 State of Origin - Game 3 | Game Thread (506 points, 5293 comments)
    2. State of Origin - Game 1 | Pre-Game Discussion Thread (139 points, 996 comments)
    3. 2016 Grand Final Pre-Game Mega-thread (123 points, 385 comments)
    4. Preliminary Final: Storm vs Broncos | Discussion Thread (82 points, 2882 comments)
    5. Test Match - Australia vs New Zealand | Discussion Thread (78 points, 2196 comments)
    6. Round 2: Broncos vs Cowboys | Discussion Thread (74 points, 2819 comments)
    7. Preliminary Final: Roosters vs Cowboys | Discussion Thread (71 points, 2299 comments)
    8. Round 25: Broncos vs Eels | Discussion Thread (65 points, 3031 comments)
    9. Elimination Final: Sharks vs Cowboys | Post Match Discussion Thread (64 points, 563 comments)
    10. Preliminary Final: Roosters vs Cowboys | Post Match Thread (60 points, 602 comments)
  5. 2562 points, 43 submissions: himynameiskurt
    1. Cooper Cronk to leave Storm at the end of the season (168 points, 456 comments)
    2. Taumololo ran for 209 metres, more than JWH, Liu, Guerra, Napa and Watson combined (138 points, 99 comments)
    3. Vunivalu flying knees into Guerra & Watson (132 points, 87 comments)
    4. Knights sign R.McDonald - Set to be the biggest signing in Rugby League history (119 points, 44 comments)
    5. Josh Dugan Clutch Kick (101 points, 43 comments)
    6. Matt Gillett charge down and pass to James Roberts to score the game winning try (88 points, 63 comments)
    7. Knights team song (yes we have one) (79 points, 32 comments)
    8. Lote Tuqiri has changed his name to Lote Land (72 points, 18 comments)
    9. Kiwis' captain Jesse Bromwich, player Kevin Proctor allegedly bought cocaine after Anzac Test, Canberra man charged (71 points, 176 comments)
    10. Matty & Finchy Interview Corey Norman & Clint Gutherson (69 points, 18 comments)
  6. 1199 points, 20 submissions: ReggieBasil
    1. Gambling advertising to be banned between kickoff and final siren in NRL games under new Scott Morrison backed proposals (162 points, 123 comments)
    2. Tui Lolohea tries out for the 49ers with a stunning pass (113 points, 35 comments)
    3. TBT: JT in training (104 points, 33 comments)
    4. The classic, the legend. The one, the only. Enchanted. Glossy. Flamingo. (103 points, 36 comments)
    5. Barba released from Sharks contract. (90 points, 221 comments)
    6. Alex McKinnon will sue the NRL and Melbourne Storm player Jordan McLean personally, over tackle that left him paralysed (55 points, 291 comments)
    7. TBT: What you get is what you see (1989 NSWRL promo) (55 points, 41 comments)
    8. Rare footage of an incredible finish to a rugby league game, I thought you'd all enjoy (45 points, 11 comments)
    9. LAST MAN STANDING - Vectera is the WINNER of LMS 03!! (43 points, 25 comments)
    10. The Footy Show just won the Best Sport Programme Logie. Lol. (43 points, 78 comments)
  7. 1131 points, 14 submissions: deesmutts88
    1. 7 News Melbourne get a lead on a story. (325 points, 124 comments)
    2. Facebook user alleging that Fox Sports used old footage to fake larger crowds at the game. (132 points, 90 comments)
    3. There has been a fatal Shark attack. (124 points, 29 comments)
    4. Semi Radradra climbing a tree to get coconuts. (72 points, 17 comments)
    5. Mods are asleep. Post shirtless Jarryds. (69 points, 27 comments)
    6. Americans don't get it. (66 points, 23 comments)
    7. The NRL is baiting fans on Twitter (53 points, 32 comments)
    8. Matt Geyer was thrilled for Luke Lewis. (50 points, 14 comments)
    9. A trip down memory lane, starring Todd Carney. (46 points, 82 comments)
    10. PSA - The first game today is on at 4pm. (46 points, 23 comments)
  8. 1065 points, 15 submissions: shorrrno
    1. Thurston Breaks Neck In 32 Places At Training, Availability In Question For Game II (173 points, 36 comments)
    2. Vu-ni-va-lu? (107 points, 20 comments)
    3. Andrew McCullough Ankle Tap TRY Saver (102 points, 45 comments)
    4. Freddy serenading Jack Bird during ad break (89 points, 28 comments)
    5. Edrick Lee bombed try vs Wests Tigers (ISP) (82 points, 58 comments)
    6. What's going on with Mitchell Moses socks? (63 points, 29 comments)
    7. 'I was going to fake an injury': NRL referee Matt Cecchin opens up about mental health (61 points, 33 comments)
    8. Coen Hess Nails Mitchell Moses (54 points, 68 comments)
    9. PNG Hunters have qualified for their first ISC Grand Final (54 points, 9 comments)
    10. McCullough re-signs with Broncos for 4 years (53 points, 124 comments)
  9. 933 points, 19 submissions: comradepartypanda
    1. Some Wests fans have made the trip up to Newcastle to celebrate Robbie Farahs 250th game (107 points, 64 comments)
    2. For the very first time, all 16 Clubs will be wearing an #NRLIndigenous jersey during Round 10 this weekend! (79 points, 53 comments)
    3. Just bought a piece of history: the Souths Nameplate from the old Jubilee Oval Scoreboard! (72 points, 32 comments)
    4. Broncos ROBBED Of A TRY (57 points, 84 comments)
    5. Rabbitohs And Michael Maguire Agree To Part Company (52 points, 91 comments)
    6. Sharks superstar Ben Barba in cocaine crisis just days after 2016 NRL Premiership win (50 points, 121 comments)
    7. The story of Balmain player Robert Lulham and one of the greatest scandals to ever happen in rugby league (49 points, 19 comments)
    8. Purchase of the week: a 1950 NSW 1STS jersey and boots! (48 points, 22 comments)
    9. #FOXLeague will launch a virtual 10 metre line during games to catch players offside (47 points, 90 comments)
    10. On the 6th day of Christmas Comrade showed to you: a Russian National team jersey from the 1995 Emerging Nations Tournament (44 points, 15 comments)
  10. 776 points, 14 submissions: orru
    1. The Canadian women's team have the best logo in rugby league by far (117 points, 26 comments)
    2. Channel 9 blasted for ‘bias’ and ‘disgraceful’ NRL commentary (91 points, 113 comments)
    3. We've reached peak Queensland (73 points, 30 comments)
    4. Katter Begins Pre-Match Mind Games By Firing Adler Shotgun Into Shopfronts In Bondi (64 points, 17 comments)
    5. Clusterfuck at Lang Park (62 points, 40 comments)
    6. Big crowd at Melbourne v Warriors at Kawana last night (60 points, 10 comments)
    7. PNG Hunters could help attract biggest Intrust Super Cup grand final crowd at Suncorp Stadium (47 points, 17 comments)
    8. SP PNG Hunters Return to Overwhelming Homecoming (44 points, 19 comments)
    9. Rabs being Rabs (41 points, 20 comments)
    10. Cronk, Thurston call for Perth NRL team (38 points, 47 comments)

Top Commenters

  1. Tony_AbbottPBUH (12356 points, 1394 comments)
  2. theplanetofthecrepes (11570 points, 1051 comments)
  3. deesmutts88 (10987 points, 738 comments)
  4. a_BIG_willie (8476 points, 1285 comments)
  5. Aussieguy727 (7664 points, 783 comments)
  6. adomental (7063 points, 710 comments)
  7. insty1 (6460 points, 577 comments)
  8. DeffsNotACop (6379 points, 707 comments)
  9. thril_hou (6161 points, 627 comments)
  10. TurboooTurtle (6136 points, 872 comments)

Top Submissions

  1. 2016 Grand Final - Melbourne Storm vs Cronulla Sharks | Match Discussion Thread by NRLgamethread (1081 points, 4897 comments)
  2. 2017 State of Origin - Game 1 | Game Thread by NRLgamethread (905 points, 5458 comments)
  3. 2017 State of Origin - Game 2 | Game Thread by NRLgamethread (513 points, 5818 comments)
  4. 2017 State of Origin - Game 3 | Game Thread by AutoModerator (506 points, 5293 comments)
  5. 7 News Melbourne get a lead on a story. by deesmutts88 (325 points, 124 comments)
  6. Congratulations, /NRL! You are Subreddit of the Day! by SROTDroid (320 points, 145 comments)
  7. Here is my Pa and Nan, aged 17, before his first first-grade game for Manly in 1945. Legend. He passed away yesterday peacefully in Wollongong, RIP Ronald George Rowles. by bonjourmr (307 points, 41 comments)
  8. Cronk's kick for Holmes by ScaredOfGreatness (294 points, 102 comments)
  9. Jason Taumalolo celebrates a Paul Gallen knock-on by LateRegg (294 points, 69 comments)
  10. QLD Police calling it straight. by KSI82 (273 points, 28 comments)

Top Comments

  1. 299 points: truflebuta's comment in 2017 Origin Series - Post Game Thread
  2. 282 points: Fairtobantz's comment in Alex McKinnon will sue the NRL and Melbourne Storm player Jordan McLean personally, over tackle that left him paralysed
  3. 257 points: deleted's comment in Roosters star Shaun Kenny-Dowall arrested for drug possession at Sydney nightclub
  4. 246 points: StreamHero69's comment in Unhappy Future of Streams
  5. 217 points: ornateplacebo's comment in 2017 State of Origin Game 1 - Post match Thread
  6. 209 points: shinobiJP's comment in 2017 State of Origin II - Post Game Thread
  7. 206 points: EastAfrica1's comment in Unhappy Future of Streams
  8. 195 points: lockforward's comment in Mullen suspended for four years
  9. 190 points: comradepartypanda's comment in 2017 Origin Series - Post Game Thread
  10. 182 points: Abenator's comment in Brett Morris has retired from representative football
Generated with BBoe's Subreddit Stats (Donate)
submitted by subreddit_stats to subreddit_stats [link] [comments]

NRL - Round 13

So a great week last week, although we only had the 2 H2H bets - 2 from 2 is pretty decent, especially when one of them was paying $4+ (Cheers Tigers!) - you can check out our history here.
As for this round, we again only have the 2 H2H bets:
Gold Coast $2.41 (51% prob)
Cronulla $1.89 (69% prob)
We have a few other novelty bets here and a State of Origin write up here.
With the State of Origin we don't see too much value, but you could take advantage of some specials (e.g. Sportsbet and Crownbet both have offers on) if you want to have something on the line.
Good luck with all your bets
submitted by tipbetpro to sportsbook [link] [comments]

What is Line Betting? NFL Week 16 Odds, Betting Lines And Predictions Nrl records pt1 Throwback Stories with Dave Cokin: 1970's Horse Racing and the Fix Is In Online Sports Betting - YouTube

NRL 2009-present This data set dates back to March 13th 2009. It provides historical match results along with bookmaker odds for those fixtures. Help for Odds Archive page: This page serves to display archive odds / historical odds of NRL which is sorted in Australia category of OddsPortal odds comparison service. Find out what chances and odds the teams had in historical matches, browse through historical odds archive of previous matches in NRL. NRL Line Betting and Head To Head Markets. Head to Head markets and NRL line betting markets are two of the most popular ways to bet on NRL matches. Head to head betting is when you back either team to win the match outright. Line betting gives the underdogs a points advantage. So, if you fancy a team to win big and their head to head match ... View the latest odds on NRL Matches & Bet with Sportsbet. Join Australia's Favourite Online Betting and Entertainment Website. NRL ROUND 2 BETTING PREDICTIONS Canberra Raiders vs New Zealand Warriors. The lone New Zealand team in this competition is at a severe disadvantage after being forced to stay in Australia ...

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What is Line Betting?

NESN.com's Michaela Vernava and OddsShark.com's Jon Campbell discuss NFL Week 16 odds and betting lines, and give their advice on some of the can't-miss matchups. The best online sports betting system to help you make precise predictions on your sports betting picks. It grabs data from all the bookies online within sec... The St George Illawarra Dragons were down 34-10 against the Sea Eagles midway through the second half and managed to pull of one of the most remarkable comebacks in NRL history. Moneyline betting is one of the simpliest ways to bet on sports and here we teach you how to both read and bet the moneyline odds. Find out everything you need to know to start winning today. Dave Cokin is a sports betting legend and WagerTalk.com, TV host Kelly Stewart sits down with him to go back in time and relive some of the amazing stories from back in the day. About Dave Cokin ...

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