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Theoretically you can keep betting the £10 until you lose a bet (can make a fair bit of money like this!) in which case you don’t lose it as it’s risk-free. If you do lose your first bet, you can simply withdraw your £20 straight back with nothing lost.
This site does not require ID verification.
submitted by Jem451 to beermoneyuk [link] [comments]

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Hey guys, this one is nice and simple. Sign up for Kwiff using this link ( and deposit £5, and you'll receive a random £10 bet. The odds are usually favourable and you can withdraw your £5 immediately after receiving the bet, so it's a no cost shot at making anywhere from £20-£60. After signing up with a referral you can invite others too for another free bet. Definitely worth a go guys, made me an easy £60.
Non-referral link is, but if you choose to sign up without the referral code you won't be entitled to any free bet.
Good luck guys!
submitted by EmbersToAshes to beermoneyuk [link] [comments]

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PCG, a second shot at riding 11->18+ on bankruptcy exit

PCG, a second shot at riding 11->18+ on bankruptcy exit
Hey all, here to share the last chance you have at getting PCG cheap before all the catalysts the next two weeks make it run like Usain Bolt to the mid-high teens
This past week there’s been a few good posts on PCG—thanks u/veritasinvestments and u/hjkoivu. Credit to mgr4 and others who helped contribute to this DD through discussion and research
I’m sure most of you degenerates are too lazy to read them, much less figure out what’s going on, so feel free to skip to the tl;dr. But for those of you who care, here’s my take on things. I wanted to post because this is a rare good opportunity on WSB, and also because it needs to be explained more simply, with greater examination of the details, so that my fellow gamblers can understand.
I told people to buy PCG back in December almost six months ago when it was under 10$ and looked like a potential bankruptcy exit was possible. It ran to 18$ by February on the idea that PCG would exit bankruptcy and made mucho tendies. If you played this and made money, great, if not don't fret, you got another shot rabbit, don't choke this time
Just this morning Barclays upgraded to overweight, earlier UBS upgraded to 15$ PT based on exiting bankruptcy likely
Today we got a once in a lifetime do-over thanks to COVID where we are at the final precipice of bankruptcy exit, its priced at 11$ (and rising with upgrades each week), the final votes are the next two weeks and things are all looking positive.
TL;DR PCG going towards 20$ by end of June, Shares = free $$, 5/29 calls near 14.50/15 are high risk targets, 6/19 calls towards 15$ are less risky and mucho money, september 20C are free money, buy, sell on run up next 6 weeks and IV spikes
PCG - A Load of Hot Shit
PCG is a CA power company that did a bunch of naughty things and some homes / people burnt up (CA is a tinderbox come summertime). This resulted in PCG having to account for huge insurance claims, which obviously sent them into bankruptcy. The share price understandably plummeted:
Now, the more observant among you may also note rather large spikes in volume in Jan 2019 and December / Jan 2020, followed by the share price rising significantly. What caused these spikes, you may ask? Well, the chance that PCG could come out of bankruptcy in a manner that would be beneficial to the shareholders of PCG’s equity. However, both times the plan was delayed, resulting in lower confidence and the share price dropping.
Clearly, if these had been actual exits, PCG would have skyrocketed—we’re seeing the price hit $17-20+ on proposals and rumors alone. That’s because PCG is monopolistic in California, and would be an absolute beast given two things: 1. It could exit on semi-favorable terms and 2. It could ensure, in some way, that it wouldn’t get fucked over by a fire yet again through enforcement of measures to reduce risk (and a nice tidy 20B+ wildfire fund that the state provides to help utilities reduce the burden of paying for fire liabilities).
Simply look at the following screenshot of its income statement these last few years, and imagine what it would look like if “unusual items” (give you one guess as to what those are) were removed:
Good news, degens! The bankruptcy exit plans are underway again, and they do the two major things mentioned above. PG&E is allowed to remain solvent and continue generating huge revenues ($4.3 billion + in Q12020 and even more in Covid times as people stay home). Second, assuming PG&E exits by June 30th—a provision designed to help speed the process along—they’ll have access to $20+ billion in protection from a CA fund for future wildfire liabilities. So why will the bankruptcy exit occur now, when it didn’t in the past? Well, as Sir John Templeton once said when noting the four most promising words in investing, “This time it’s different!”
A Phoenix from the Ashes
For detailed past context on this whole process, read this article, it's great
Here’s a timeline of the bankruptcy exit process. The two key dates are today, the 21st, and the 27th, which are when the victims' votes and the CPUC approval vote will be in, respectively, and when judge will confirm bankruptcy exit plan assuming everything positive. I’ll explain these terms soon, but just know that if both of these pass, PCG will almost certainly exit, resulting in mucho (California term) tendies when judge confirms bankruptcy exit:
What are the chances of these votes passing? I’ll address the CPUC vote first. The California Public Utilities Commission is basically in charge of regulating utilities like PCG and therefore of approving bankruptcy exit. They are influenced mainly by their commissioner and by the governor. Gov. Slickback (Newsom) has already approved of the current proposal, and will urge the CPUC to approve it. In fact, the previous Gov. was largely ousted in part because of how he handled the PG&E situation. The CPUC commissioner also approves, and CPUC members are doing everything they can to see that this passes, including waiving a $200 million fine against PG&E. They’ve essentially approved already. Basically, if the people vote yes, CPUC will vote yes too.
And the people of California have been voting overwhelmingly in favor of the plan—we’re talking around 97+% of the votes that have been cast are “yes” votes. The plan needs only 2/3rds of those who bother to vote to vote yes. Further, the votes mentioned below account for a huge portion of those who can possibly vote (~70k max claimants and far fewer than that will vote). If you aren’t grateful for me wading into 60 pages of legalese to find this, fuck you (and yes, I didn’t just trust the seeking alpha article).
Additionally, in this video, a lawyer representing several thousand more claimants mentions that his clients' votes are overwhelmingly in favor of the plan.
There’s only one issue in all of this, and it’s not even a real problem. A man named William Abrams is essentially alleging that a small proportion of the votes are invalid for conflict-of-interest reasons; Abrams wants these votes to be thrown out or wants the lawyers involved to initiate a re-vote with more disclosures. The WSJ picked up on this, causing algos to drop the PCG share price earlier this week.
The motion can be read here and is, in my opinion, largely BS. This is true on a purely mathematical level. From what I understand, the total debt owned by wall street firms is around $20 million dollars out of a $100 million credit facility. This hardly seems a conflict of interest when the facility is fixed-rate, and the creditors to Mr. Watt’s law firm have no say over him. Further, Watts’ law firm may make up to $1 billion from settlement, which is not considered by the court to be an issue (after all, contingent settlement fees are what align clients and attorneys’ interests, allowing victims to get compensation in the first place)! The $20 million pales in comparison and is a red herring.
Abrams actually has an alternate motivation himself: to get PCG to admit liability for the Tubbs wildfire, which destroyed his home. This is blatantly obvious when you consider the letter he filed to the court in August of last year. Abrams has a totally understandable motivation, but his claims are not legally legitimate. Further, he’s positioning himself as an advocate for victims, whereas in reality he’ll be screwing over the only company which could provide them with remuneration, as well as causing payments to be delayed by years and years.
Take a look at the response which was filed to Mr. Abrams’ motion: short, no-BS, and compelling. It doesn’t seem like the big boys think he’s worth worrying about.
Also worth noting is that the Judge, Dennis Montali, really wants this thing to go through. He’s taken Abrams’ claim “under advisement,” which essentially is necessary for PR and optics, but is largely ceremonial. If he was keen on delaying the vote he’d have done it at the hearing on the 12th. Since then he's moved forward with confirmation protocol and vote staying same. Consider the advise, dismissed.
Lastly, Governor was supportive if the CEO steps down as well as the BoD is replaced is stepping down mid-June, his job was to navigate bankruptcy exit, he's done that, time for new CEO
BoD is being replaced except 3 people
So who else knows this?
I’ve done enough DD for you already. Go look at the involved players betting on an exit: Centerbridge, Elliot, Apollo, etc. Serengeti Asset Management is a bankruptcy focused hedge fund that often profits when firms exit bankruptcy, and they have nearly 10% of their portfolio in PG&E. More will pile in once the bankruptcy exit is confirmed, and still more when the company emerges from bankruptcy (many institutional investors have mandates to hold off until such things happen). There's over 80% tute ownership, billions in a company in Ch11 currently. What happens when they exit and have liability protection for future fires and can truck on to a proper PE valuation? Big money inflow is what
Further, dark pool data shows buying at every slight dip:
For Dark pools, read this article
Because of the aforementioned issues, PGC’s stock price has been depressed. While I’m not going to lie and say that I could accurately value it going forward, I will note that a ~3x NTM PEG is standard for utilities. If you want to compare metrics further, Edison International is the closest peer at 2.7x. In any case, the process of PCG’s depressed stock price recovering towards a more normal ratio should begin this month, and rapidly accelerate. I’ve seen longer term targets from $15 (UBS just raised their target to this, and they’re definitely still being conservative because of the hearing) to $25+. See below for a lazy comp set, and mess around with the numbers yourself:
There are two bear theories that are uncertain.
  1. Fires can happen in summer. If this happens PCG sells off just by fear of fires. My play involves selling before end of june on run up and then just wheeling PCG. Definitely not holding through entire Summer
  2. August 29th according to settlement plan is when PCG must deposit settlement money which is half cash and half issued as new equity. How much dilution will occur is uncertain as it must add up to 6.75B, but the idea is that this is undervalued and will normalize to 20s when exiting bankruptcy and be less dilution than expected. It'll get into a trust that sells shares in 18 months to return victims money.
Ultimately, the point is that smart money is betting on this play. Because we’re all single minded degenerates, that might be a turnoff, but it’s a vital piece of the puzzle.
There are other attractive things about PCG, too, particularly in this environment: it’ll actually be helped by more people staying home, it has no chance of falling in recession as utilities are safe havens (and this is massively undervalued), etc. But I’ve written enough. I’d encourage you to do your own research, and to look into all these interesting points.
TL;DR for you illiterate fucks.
PCG go up. Call good. PCG May 29th $15 Call (13-14.50 if you want to play it safer), June 19th 15$ Call, Sept 18th $20 Call. Enjoy IV kicks along the way up until the ruling on the 27th.
Also literally first time in 2 years Barclays made it a Buy vs a Hold
My Positions
I hope to exit some of it near term positions around 14$ next Friday else on IV spike near judge ruling, depends how catalysts make it run next week
I also have around 90K in shares on PCG
submitted by cpgupta561 to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

The Premier League is back this weekend, which means a resurgence in Match Betting. Here is my 3 Part Mega Guide to making £500 for several hours work, and then making £500- £1000 on a monthly basis.

So a lot of you will know that I regularly post guides and tips about match betting, However since the same questions always come up in the comments, I decided to make one big, very thorough Mega Guide in order to eliminate as many doubts as possible for you guys. Like I said before, This guide is a handy way to sort out a month's rent for 5 or 6 hours work, so I really hope it can be of use to someone. Anyway, Here it is:
Having done my research and having been able to turn a really nice profit in such a short time, I wanted to make a short guide to eliminate people's doubts and simplify things a little. Since it really doesn't take a lot of time to hit that £500 profit mark, it's a shame not to try it out. Anyway, Here it goes:
I was sceptical as hell about Match betting because a friend showed me the Facebook groups and it just looked like a giant gambling pyramid scheme. It turns out there is a decent chunk of change to be made from it, you just need to follow the guides and never ever actually gamble with your money.
Never ever Gamble? Yes That's right, you are going to be using Gambling sites to complete the various offers, but the whole idea behind match betting is that every time you "make a bet", you match that same bet on the exchange. So for example, if I bet £10 for Real Madrid to Win on the Bookie Site at odds of 2.5, I then also make a Matched bet on the Exchange (This is a separate site such as Smarkets or Betfair) where I bet for Real Madrid not to win at odds of 2.5 (or as close as I can get to those odds). In this way I am covered in all outcomes, and it allows me to fulfill the requirements of the bookies offer (For example Bet £10 and get £30 in Free bets)
What's the difference between the Bookie Site and the Exchange? On the Exchange Site you are basically being the Bookie and just like a Bookie, you have liability. If I bet £10 and my bet wins at odds of 2.5 then I win £25, so the bookies liability for this bet is £15, the extra money that they would have to give me if I win. There are calculators on the Match betting sites which you can use to calculate what Liability you need to enter on the exchange each time you make your matched bet. There is also software to help you find what games have the closest odds on both the bookies and the exchange, which is very important.
What do I do when I get my free bets? It's the same process again, You find a game that has very close odds on both the bookies and the exchange ( You can do this by eye or by using odds matching software. A good site with this software is called OddsMonkey). Only this time when you use the calculator to work out your liability, you will set it to "Free bets SNR" so it knows you are not using real money. It will tell you how much Liability to use in the exchange and off you go.
How does this make me money? The fact that you have a free bet to use is what makes you money, For example a £30 free bet at odds of 5.5 in the bookies will win you £135 (30x 4.5, because the original free bet stake of £30 is not returned to you). Now let's say that the closest odds I can find in the Exchange for the same game are 6.0, I will need a liability of £112.50 to match my free bet in the bookies ( I use the calculator on oddsmonkey to work this out)
£135- 112.50 = £22.50 in Profit.
Alternatively if my bet on the exchange wins, I will lose the free bet of £30 (but it's not actually a loss to me because It's not real money) and I will win £22.50 on the exchange. Either way, I make a Profit of £22.50
What about providing card details? You can use a separate, virtual bank account for all your match betting, In this way your main banking information is not shared with any of the sites you sign up to. A good one to use is Monzo, the app is easy to use and it only takes 5 minutes to open an account. It's free to open an account and last I checked they actually have a referral scheme where you get £5 if you sign up through a referral link.
Non Referral here:
Where can I learn to do it? There are some sites that you have to pay a monthly subscription to but I found one called Team Profit that is free and has a full guide of all the different offers you can complete.
I worked my way down through the list of offers, nice and handy, and having completed 20 offers at 15 minutes per offer, I came out at £470 for 5 hours total of work.
If you are new to this site and are opening a free account I would really appreciate if you use my Referral (£10)
Here is the non referral link to the page with all the offers:
TLDR: You do not need to "gamble" to match bet, in fact by definition, the bet you make is "matched" on the exchange, so it is not a gamble in any sense.

You may sometimes see people commenting saying they have made a lot more money since finishing the welcome offers, £1000-£1500 a month and such, but never saying exactly how...
Personally I have made a lot more profit every month since I finished the welcome offers, Usually around the £1000 per month mark.
People say that Match betting drys up once you finish the welcome offers but this is simply not true, it's a matter of being more organised and checking your email for new offers, while also checking the Reload Offers section on Team Profit every morning (Takes literally 5 minutes)
Below is an Example from last month where I made £300 in one week. Bare in mind that the amount you make weekly will vary with the amount of sport that is on, but as long as there's sport, you will always be able to earn. This example is simply to show you the potential Match Betting has long after you've completed the Welcome offers:
Here's exactly how I did it:
Coral: Money back as a free bet up to £50 if your team is ahead in the first half but doesn't win the match in the end: Matched 5 Premier League games, 3 were successful. I received three £50 free bets which I matched and turned into £130 profit risk free. £130 in 30 minutes
William Hill: Money Back as Cash if your horse comes 2nd- 2 of the 6 horses I matched came 2nd, I was also able to make a profit by just matching the bets because my odds were higher on the bookies side by using the Happy Hour odds (between 12pm-1pm, 3 horses with enhanced odds) and also the 3 daily bet boosts on Horse raising( to boost my odds on another 3 horses). £20 in 5 minutes
Paddy Power: Money Back up to £10 if Horse comes 2nd 3rd or 4th, Matched the horse with the lowest odds and sure enough it came 3rd, got my £10 free bet. £8 in 3 minutes
Skybet: Money Back as cash up to £10 if Horse comes 2nd 3rd or 4th, Matched the horse with the lowest odds and sure enough it came 3rd, got my £10. £9.50 in 3 minutes
Skybet: Wednesday Super odds: Matched the three super odds on the exchange and due to the difference in odds (If the odds on the bookies are greater than those for same bet on the exchange you are automatically profiting). £10 in 3 minutes
Boylesports: £10 Free bet if your bet loses(Premier League Match): £8 in 3 minutes
Paddy Power 2up: An offer where you get paid out early if your time goes up by 2 goals, the profit varies depending on what the odds on the exchange are when you back the team you orignally lay against, but this offer can make you a lot of profit (You will need to download the team profit calculator app and use the early payout calculator). Last week it Made me £35. £35 in 5 minutes
Novibet: Deposit £100 and get a £50 free bet. Very easy because you just have to deposit the money, get your free bet, withdraw your £100 straight away, then match the free bet on the exchange. £40 in 5 minutes
Coral: Bet 3x £5 in play and get a £5 free bet-Availble everyday. Just match these at half time so the odds are stable, Make sure you also place mug bets every couple of days if you do this one a lot, I would reccomend doing it 5 times a week tops. £20 in 30 minutes
Paddy Powe Skybet Bet clubs: Bet 5x £10 bets in a week to get a £10 free bet with Paddy Power. Bet £25 in a week to get a £5 free bet with Skybet. £10 in 30 minutes

Above you can see the reality of making profit long after you've finished the welcome offers, but it comes down to organisation.
So in Summary, these are my 6 Rules for making a monthly Profit:
(1) Check your email daily for offers, many times bookies will send you personalised offers just for you, and these can be very VERY generous.
(2) Check the Reload Offers section on Team profit every morning to see what offers are available that day.
(3) Offers change all the time- Don't let this put you off. There are always new offers to replace the previous ones. There are also Weekly/Daily offers ( Coral £50 free bet, Paddy power refund if 2nd 3rd 4th, William hill money back if second, Paddy Power 2up, Bet clubs etc) which are constantly available when sport is on.
(4) Make Mug bets ( Explained more in PART 3)
(5) It all adds up. Don't think "It's only a £5 free bet, not worth matching". I get around 15 £5 free bets every week, If I ignored them all I would be down £200 at the end of the month.
(6) Don't spend all day at it. Once you've checked your email and reload offers, you know what offers you need to do that day. Set alarms so you can make your matches before each event starts, but don't spend ages sitting at your computer waiting for "the perfect match", for your own mental health, set a time limit of 1 hour per day at most.

(1) How much money do you need to put in to start?
When you go onto the offers page on Team Profit after signing up, there is an option to start with £25, £50 or £100. You can select one of those three options And it will show you a different number of offers according to your selection. I started with £100 because I wanted to get things moving a little quicker. I did this so that I would have enough money for liability to do a bigger earning offer at the start. One year later, and having see the potential for profit, I keep around £500 floating between my accounts. This is useful for large sporting events where I may want to do around 10- 15 offers in a short time.
(2) Is it in anyway going to impact my credit score?
Using gambling sites doesn't effect your credit score unless you borrow money to fund it. I do all my match betting through a virtual bank (Monzo) in order to keep that stuff out of my main bank on the off chance that it raises any eyebrows. You'll be using Monzo like a cash card, where you can only spend the money you put into the card. This is why it won't affect your credit score, because you wouldn't be taking out an overdraft or using credit for example.
(3) What is Mug Betting?
Mug Betting is where you make bets that have no relation to any offer or promotion in order to appear like a regular punter. If you are doing a lot of offers on one site, it's a good idea to make mug bets in order to avoid being "gubbed" (Gubbed is a term for when bookies realise you are only taking advantadge of promotions and close your account permanantly). Of course you will also Match these "Mug bets" on the exchange. Make 1-2 Mug bets on Each site every week(On the sites you are using a lot for offers and promotions) in order to ensure your accounts last longer than 1-2 years. I have been matching for well over a year and have never been gubbed. Take the extra couple of minutes to Mug bet, it's worth it.
More on Mug betting here

Ok so that's everything I can think of to share with you guys, The link to sign up to your free Team Profit account is at the bottom of Part 1 of this guide.
TLDR: You do not need to "gamble" to match bet, in fact by definition, the bet you make is "matched" on the exchange, so it is not a gamble in any sense.
I really hope this guide will help someone out because It really is a solid way to sort out a months rent for quite a modest amount of work.
Thanks for Reading.
submitted by IvyRoney to beermoneyuk [link] [comments]

Former investment bank FX trader: some thoughts

Former investment bank FX trader: some thoughts
Hi guys,
I have been using reddit for years in my personal life (not trading!) and wanted to give something back in an area where i am an expert.
I worked at an investment bank for seven years and joined them as a graduate FX trader so have lots of professional experience, by which i mean I was trained and paid by a big institution to trade on their behalf. This is very different to being a full-time home trader, although that is not to discredit those guys, who can accumulate a good amount of experience/wisdom through self learning.
When I get time I'm going to write a mid-length posts on each topic for you guys along the lines of how i was trained. I guess there would be 15-20 topics in total so about 50-60 posts. Feel free to comment or ask questions.
The first topic is Risk Management and we'll cover it in three parts
Part I
  • Why it matters
  • Position sizing
  • Kelly
  • Using stops sensibly
  • Picking a clear level

Why it matters

The first rule of making money through trading is to ensure you do not lose money. Look at any serious hedge fund’s website and they’ll talk about their first priority being “preservation of investor capital.”
You have to keep it before you grow it.
Strangely, if you look at retail trading websites, for every one article on risk management there are probably fifty on trade selection. This is completely the wrong way around.
The great news is that this stuff is pretty simple and process-driven. Anyone can learn and follow best practices.
Seriously, avoiding mistakes is one of the most important things: there's not some holy grail system for finding winning trades, rather a routine and fairly boring set of processes that ensure that you are profitable, despite having plenty of losing trades alongside the winners.

Capital and position sizing

The first thing you have to know is how much capital you are working with. Let’s say you have $100,000 deposited. This is your maximum trading capital. Your trading capital is not the leveraged amount. It is the amount of money you have deposited and can withdraw or lose.
Position sizing is what ensures that a losing streak does not take you out of the market.
A rule of thumb is that one should risk no more than 2% of one’s account balance on an individual trade and no more than 8% of one’s account balance on a specific theme. We’ll look at why that’s a rule of thumb later. For now let’s just accept those numbers and look at examples.
So we have $100,000 in our account. And we wish to buy EURUSD. We should therefore not be risking more than 2% which $2,000.
We look at a technical chart and decide to leave a stop below the monthly low, which is 55 pips below market. We’ll come back to this in a bit. So what should our position size be?
We go to the calculator page, select Position Size and enter our details. There are many such calculators online - just google "Pip calculator".
So the appropriate size is a buy position of 363,636 EURUSD. If it reaches our stop level we know we’ll lose precisely $2,000 or 2% of our capital.
You should be using this calculator (or something similar) on every single trade so that you know your risk.
Now imagine that we have similar bets on EURJPY and EURGBP, which have also broken above moving averages. Clearly this EUR-momentum is a theme. If it works all three bets are likely to pay off. But if it goes wrong we are likely to lose on all three at once. We are going to look at this concept of correlation in more detail later.
The total amount of risk in our portfolio - if all of the trades on this EUR-momentum theme were to hit their stops - should not exceed $8,000 or 8% of total capital. This allows us to go big on themes we like without going bust when the theme does not work.
As we’ll see later, many traders only win on 40-60% of trades. So you have to accept losing trades will be common and ensure you size trades so they cannot ruin you.
Similarly, like poker players, we should risk more on trades we feel confident about and less on trades that seem less compelling. However, this should always be subject to overall position sizing constraints.
For example before you put on each trade you might rate the strength of your conviction in the trade and allocate a position size accordingly:
To keep yourself disciplined you should try to ensure that no more than one in twenty trades are graded exceptional and allocated 5% of account balance risk. It really should be a rare moment when all the stars align for you.
Notice that the nice thing about dealing in percentages is that it scales. Say you start out with $100,000 but end the year up 50% at $150,000. Now a 1% bet will risk $1,500 rather than $1,000. That makes sense as your capital has grown.
It is extremely common for retail accounts to blow-up by making only 4-5 losing trades because they are leveraged at 50:1 and have taken on far too large a position, relative to their account balance.
Consider that GBPUSD tends to move 1% each day. If you have an account balance of $10k then it would be crazy to take a position of $500k (50:1 leveraged). A 1% move on $500k is $5k.
Two perfectly regular down days in a row — or a single day’s move of 2% — and you will receive a margin call from the broker, have the account closed out, and have lost all your money.
Do not let this happen to you. Use position sizing discipline to protect yourself.

Kelly Criterion

If you’re wondering - why “about 2%” per trade? - that’s a fair question. Why not 0.5% or 10% or any other number?
The Kelly Criterion is a formula that was adapted for use in casinos. If you know the odds of winning and the expected pay-off, it tells you how much you should bet in each round.
This is harder than it sounds. Let’s say you could bet on a weighted coin flip, where it lands on heads 60% of the time and tails 40% of the time. The payout is $2 per $1 bet.
Well, absolutely you should bet. The odds are in your favour. But if you have, say, $100 it is less obvious how much you should bet to avoid ruin.
Say you bet $50, the odds that it could land on tails twice in a row are 16%. You could easily be out after the first two flips.
Equally, betting $1 is not going to maximise your advantage. The odds are 60/40 in your favour so only betting $1 is likely too conservative. The Kelly Criterion is a formula that produces the long-run optimal bet size, given the odds.
Applying the formula to forex trading looks like this:
Position size % = Winning trade % - ( (1- Winning trade %) / Risk-reward ratio
If you have recorded hundreds of trades in your journal - see next chapter - you can calculate what this outputs for you specifically.
If you don't have hundreds of trades then let’s assume some realistic defaults of Winning trade % being 30% and Risk-reward ratio being 3. The 3 implies your TP is 3x the distance of your stop from entry e.g. 300 pips take profit and 100 pips stop loss.
So that’s 0.3 - (1 - 0.3) / 3 = 6.6%.
Hold on a second. 6.6% of your account probably feels like a LOT to risk per trade.This is the main observation people have on Kelly: whilst it may optimise the long-run results it doesn’t take into account the pain of drawdowns. It is better thought of as the rational maximum limit. You needn’t go right up to the limit!
With a 30% winning trade ratio, the odds of you losing on four trades in a row is nearly one in four. That would result in a drawdown of nearly a quarter of your starting account balance. Could you really stomach that and put on the fifth trade, cool as ice? Most of us could not.
Accordingly people tend to reduce the bet size. For example, let’s say you know you would feel emotionally affected by losing 25% of your account.
Well, the simplest way is to divide the Kelly output by four. You have effectively hidden 75% of your account balance from Kelly and it is now optimised to avoid a total wipeout of just the 25% it can see.
This gives 6.6% / 4 = 1.65%. Of course different trading approaches and different risk appetites will provide different optimal bet sizes but as a rule of thumb something between 1-2% is appropriate for the style and risk appetite of most retail traders.
Incidentally be very wary of systems or traders who claim high winning trade % like 80%. Invariably these don’t pass a basic sense-check:
  • How many live trades have you done? Often they’ll have done only a handful of real trades and the rest are simulated backtests, which are overfitted. The model will soon die.
  • What is your risk-reward ratio on each trade? If you have a take profit $3 away and a stop loss $100 away, of course most trades will be winners. You will not be making money, however! In general most traders should trade smaller position sizes and less frequently than they do. If you are going to bias one way or the other, far better to start off too small.

How to use stop losses sensibly

Stop losses have a bad reputation amongst the retail community but are absolutely essential to risk management. No serious discretionary trader can operate without them.
A stop loss is a resting order, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price. For a recap on the various order types visit this chapter.
The valid concern with stop losses is that disreputable brokers look for a concentration of stops and then, when the market is close, whipsaw the price through the stop levels so that the clients ‘stop out’ and sell to the broker at a low rate before the market naturally comes back higher. This is referred to as ‘stop hunting’.
This would be extremely immoral behaviour and the way to guard against it is to use a highly reputable top-tier broker in a well regulated region such as the UK.
Why are stop losses so important? Well, there is no other way to manage risk with certainty.
You should always have a pre-determined stop loss before you put on a trade. Not having one is a recipe for disaster: you will find yourself emotionally attached to the trade as it goes against you and it will be extremely hard to cut the loss. This is a well known behavioural bias that we’ll explore in a later chapter.
Learning to take a loss and move on rationally is a key lesson for new traders.
A common mistake is to think of the market as a personal nemesis. The market, of course, is totally impersonal; it doesn’t care whether you make money or not.
Bruce Kovner, founder of the hedge fund Caxton Associates
There is an old saying amongst bank traders which is “losers average losers”.
It is tempting, having bought EURUSD and seeing it go lower, to buy more. Your average price will improve if you keep buying as it goes lower. If it was cheap before it must be a bargain now, right? Wrong.
Where does that end? Always have a pre-determined cut-off point which limits your risk. A level where you know the reason for the trade was proved ‘wrong’ ... and stick to it strictly. If you trade using discretion, use stops.

Picking a clear level

Where you leave your stop loss is key.
Typically traders will leave them at big technical levels such as recent highs or lows. For example if EURUSD is trading at 1.1250 and the recent month’s low is 1.1205 then leaving it just below at 1.1200 seems sensible.

If you were going long, just below the double bottom support zone seems like a sensible area to leave a stop
You want to give it a bit of breathing room as we know support zones often get challenged before the price rallies. This is because lots of traders identify the same zones. You won’t be the only one selling around 1.1200.
The “weak hands” who leave their sell stop order at exactly the level are likely to get taken out as the market tests the support. Those who leave it ten or fifteen pips below the level have more breathing room and will survive a quick test of the level before a resumed run-up.
Your timeframe and trading style clearly play a part. Here’s a candlestick chart (one candle is one day) for GBPUSD.
If you are putting on a trend-following trade you expect to hold for weeks then you need to have a stop loss that can withstand the daily noise. Look at the downtrend on the chart. There were plenty of days in which the price rallied 60 pips or more during the wider downtrend.
So having a really tight stop of, say, 25 pips that gets chopped up in noisy short-term moves is not going to work for this kind of trade. You need to use a wider stop and take a smaller position size, determined by the stop level.
There are several tools you can use to help you estimate what is a safe distance and we’ll look at those in the next section.
There are of course exceptions. For example, if you are doing range-break style trading you might have a really tight stop, set just below the previous range high.
Clearly then where you set stops will depend on your trading style as well as your holding horizons and the volatility of each instrument.
Here are some guidelines that can help:
  1. Use technical analysis to pick important levels (support, resistance, previous high/lows, moving averages etc.) as these provide clear exit and entry points on a trade.
  2. Ensure that the stop gives your trade enough room to breathe and reflects your timeframe and typical volatility of each pair. See next section.
  3. Always pick your stop level first. Then use a calculator to determine the appropriate lot size for the position, based on the % of your account balance you wish to risk on the trade.
So far we have talked about price-based stops. There is another sort which is more of a fundamental stop, used alongside - not instead of - price stops. If either breaks you’re out.
For example if you stop understanding why a product is going up or down and your fundamental thesis has been confirmed wrong, get out. For example, if you are long because you think the central bank is turning hawkish and AUDUSD is going to play catch up with rates … then you hear dovish noises from the central bank and the bond yields retrace lower and back in line with the currency - close your AUDUSD position. You already know your thesis was wrong. No need to give away more money to the market.

Coming up in part II

EDIT: part II here
Letting stops breathe
When to change a stop
Entering and exiting winning positions
Risk:reward ratios
Risk-adjusted returns

Coming up in part III

Squeezes and other risks
Market positioning
Bet correlation
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

[Discussion] AAS and Neurodegeneration

So I’ve been getting a lot of DM’s (18 and counting) regarding the effects of AAS and neurodegeneracy, is it real, how it happens, can it be minimized, etc. (PS if I don't respond, stop being a little bitch about it. I have a life too and cant get to all of ya'll. I'll get to you, wait in line) So here’s my quick write up of the biggest players.
TL; DR is at the bottom. Feel free to skip anything with a bullet point, those are just quotes from studies I thought were relevant

What is neurodegeneration? Neurodegeneration (irreversible tissue loss) defines the gradual and progressive deterioration in neuronal functions such as movement, motivation, and memory due to the structural alterations of neurons or neuron death. These changes give rise to accumulation of toxic proteins in the brain, and the loss of mitochondria functions.

Let’s start with testosterone.
"It has been demonstrated that testosterone is neuroprotective in healthy male subjects. On the other hand, the neuroprotective features of testosterone is reduced with increased age and then leads to enhanced ROS production and neurodegeneration." So which one is it? Well, it's both. The effect is dependent on plasma levels of testosterone.
Testosterone has bidirectional effects; it is both an antioxidant and oxidative stressor and this dependent on the condition of the brain. In short it is both neurodegenerative and neuroprotective depending on certain conditions. Those conditions are greatly correlated with plasma testosterone levels.
Neurodegenerative effects: How do they happen? Via the destruction of dopaminergic neurons within the Substantia Nigra. This is the same degeneration that occurs in Parkinson’s disease. This happens with SUPRAPHYSIOLOGICAL/HYPER-ANDROGENIC LEVELS OF TESTOSTERONE.
Now what happens with too little testosterone? Spinal and bulbar muscular atrophy (SBMA, or Kennedy’s Disease). SBMA is a progressive debilitating neurodegenerative disorder resulting in muscle cramps and progressive weakness due to degeneration of motor neurons in the brainstem and spinal cord. Thankfully, this is a genetic disease due a mutation in the androgen receptor gene. That being said, males with decreased testosterone levels will still experience the neurodegenerative symptoms but can be treated via testosterone replacement therapy. This happens with HYPO-ANDROGENIC LEVELS OF TESTOSTERONE.
So, too little testosterone is bad, too much testosterone is bad. You want that perfect balance.

Trenbolone. The shitshow king himself.
Trenbolone metabolites (17β-trenbolone) accumulate within the hippocampus of the brain. The hippocampus plays important roles in the consolidation of information from short-term memory to long-term memory, and in spatial memory that enables navigation. This metabolite induces the apoptosis of the neurons within the hippocampus, meanwhile completely overpowering the neuroprotective effects of testosterone (which as discussed above, is seen at normal physiological TRT levels).
Amyloid beta (Aβ) are the peptides within the hippocampus. Trenbolone alters the accumulation of amyloid beta, via misfolding of the protein itself. This misfolded protein is called an oligomer, which are incredibly toxic to nerve cells. This trenbolone induced misfold of Aβ is seen in plaque like structures, very similar to those seen in Alzheimer’s and prion disease (thankfully, no where near as deadly as prion disease).
In short, tren is bad.

Nandrolone (Deca/NPP)
Deca induces neural death via the overactivation of the N-methyl-d-aspartate (NMDA) receptor within the cortex of the brain. The specific neuronal death pathway induced by an excessive stimulation of glutamate receptors, resulting in excessive Ca2+ influx through a receptor’s associated ion channels, resulting in apoptosis of neuronal cells. The hyper-excitability the of NMDA receptor is also shows in Alzheimer’s and other cognitive neurodegenerative diseases. Interestingly, the activity of the NMDA receptor was INCREASED with the use of aromatase inhibitors, further suggesting that estrogen is neuroprotective in a fuckton of various ways. Once again, TRT levels of testosterone seemed to be neuroprotective against this effect.
Furthermore, Deca induces the creation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and reactive nitrogen species (RNS). ROS are unstable molecules that contain oxygen radicals and that easily reacts with other molecules in a cell. A build up of reactive oxygen species in cells may cause damage to DNA, RNA, and proteins, and may cause cell death.
In short, nandrolone bad, but not as bad as tren.

Estrogen and Aromatase Inhibitors
Estrogen is neuroprotective, it’s important in congition and mental health. A decrease in estrogen is heavily associated with a decrease in conginiton in both males and females. Furthermore, estrogen modulates the proper folding of amyloid beta and is responsible for proper accumulation. It has an additional anti-inflammatory effect via the inhibition of pro-inflammatory cytokines.
Estrogen also plays a crucial role in DNA repair. Estrogen regulated DNA repair mechanisms in the brain have neuroprotective effects. Estrogen regulates the transcription of DNA base excision repair genes as well as the translocation of the base excision repair enzymes between different subcellular compartments.
What about aromatases inhibitors? In general, inhibition of aromatase, the enzyme that catalyzes the nonreversible conversion of aromatizable androgens into estrogens, results in lower estrogen levels. This inhibition is associated with altered beta amyloid deposition and more severe strokes in Alzheimer’s Disease mouse models

TUDCA: bet some of you fucks didn’t expect to see this make the list.
TUDCA is incredible when it comes to neuroprotection. TUDCA inhibits NF-kB which is responsible for causing acute neural inflammation (inflammation is a key factor that leads to neural apoptosis). TUDCA has an additional anti-inflammatory effect in neuroinflammation through the regulation of the transforming growth factor β (TGF-β) pathway within the hippocampus. Finally, TUDCA modulates cell death by interrupting classic pathways of apoptosis (the calcium influx that was described with nandrolone above) and it prevents the misfolding of amyloid beta, the same exact misfolding that was induced by trenbolone and seen in Alzheimer’s disease. Many trials are currently using TUDCA as an effective early treatment of Alzheimer’s, meaning that TUDCA may help prevent the progression of disease, but does not reverse it.

Could this mean that short, 8 week blasts of tren a (or NPP), along with TRT test, supplemented with TUDCA be the new meta for minimizing the neurodegeneration? Who the fuck knows.

In terms of neurodegeneracy: High test, bad. Low test, bad. TRT test, good. Tren, very bad. Deca/NPP, bad, not as bad as tren tho. Estrogen, very good. TUDCA, fucking incredible.
submitted by Essindeess to steroids [link] [comments]

Stake pricing / fees analysis

Stake pricing / fees analysis
Hi guys,
I have been looking into Stake and comparing the fees with a traditional broker such as Commsec. I thought the following analysis might be helpful for those looking to open an account as it can be hard to compare the various fees for different platforms.
I picked Commsec just as an example so I do not know how it would compare to other brokers who may be cheaper than Commsec.
Stake fees
The main thing to know about Stake is whilst they offer free brokerage, they charge you a fee for transferring AUD to USD which is currently US70c/A$100 FX fee. After converting the US70c to AUD, it is about a 1% fee on the way in.
This fee also applies on the way out i.e. transferring from USD to AUD when you sell i.e. 1% on the way out. i.e. it is 1% of transaction value.
There is an option to transfer in directly USD to USD which can lower the cost which I will talk about further below.
On the way out, you cannot transfer from USD to USD due to AML reasons and you must convert to AUD.
The way to think about this fee is it is an FX spread and is essentially how Stake makes money (as do all other financial institutions that charge you for the privilege of exchanging currencies).
Stake will quote you the prevailing AUD/USD rate e.g. 0.7291 (at the time of writing) and then add on the US0.70c / A$100 fee.
This is the same as embedding the fee into the FX rate itself and quoting an FX rate of 0.7221. The difference in the two rates i.e. 0.70% is what is referred to as the FX spread. From what I understand, 0.70% is a very competitive spread.
As a comparison, Commsec charges US$19.95 per trade < US$5,000, which increases to US$29.95 >US$5,000 and then 0.31% for trades >US$10,000.
However, going back to the concept of the FX spread, Commsec's current AUD/USD rate on transfer is 0.6911. This is a far lower rate and well below the spot rate. Compared to Stake, you are 0.38% worse off. To put this into numbers, if you convert A$5,000, on FX spread alone you are $190 behind with Commsec.
The benefit of Commsec's fee structure however is if you intend to trade larger parcels as the flat rate applies (up to US$10,000).
As an example, a A$4,500 trade to buy 1 share of AMZN (US$3,294) would cost (fees are all calculated in USD):
Stake entry fee - US$31.50
Commsec entry fee - US$19.95
It would appear cheaper to use Commsec in this scenario as the Stake fee operates as a percentage. Looking at just the cost to buy, the breakeven amount is about ~A$2,500 before it comes cheaper to opt for the Commsec flat fee.
However, we also need to consider the costs to trade out of our stock one day.
If we assume no growth, then you would simply just double those fees. Total fees for Stake would be US$63. For Commsec it would be US$39.90.
At this point, the Commsec structure still makes more sense.
If we assume a longer time frame, assuming 10% p.a. growth compounded over 20 years, our one AMZN share will be worth A$30,273 (happy days!).
Adjusting the exit fees in this scenario results in the following:
Stake exit fee - US$212
Commsec exit fee - US$65
The % based 'fee' for Stake starts to look like it really hurts compared to Commsec, which applies a % fee at this point given the trade will be >$10,000, but at a lower rate (0.31% vs 1%).
Based on the above, the Stake pricing model does not on face value appears to make sense, unless you are a day trader or have limited capital and can't afford the minimum parcel size to make Commsec's flat rate more economic.
However, we cannot ignore the impact of the FX spread.
As i mentioned above, there is a significant differential in the rate quoted by Commsec vs Stake's rate which is quoted close to spot but includes the 'FX fee' as a separate line item.
Converting initially from AUD to USD using Commsec would cost you an additional $171.
Converting your astute investment with Commsec, which has now swelled to over $30,000, assuming the same rate differential will cost you a whopping $1,150 more than the spot rate quoted by Stake.
Bringing it all together...
Assuming our hypothetical scenario, total fees including the difference in FX rates are as follows:
Stake - $US243
Commsec - $US1,406 (most of this is the FX impact, the actual transaction fees for Commsec are only US$85)
The other way to think about the FX impact using Commsec would be that you would need more AUD to convert to the same USD to purchase the stock.
Now, FX rates are always subject to change and this isn't to throw shade at Commsec necessarily. The arithmetic of the above can all change depending on the spread differential and it still stands that the flat rate structure of Commsec does theoretically make sense for larger trades.
What about USD to USD transfers?
As i mentioned above, Stake allows USD to USD transfers to deposit funds. This is great as you will not be charged the FX fee at all, but a flat rate US$5 transfer fee.
I use Transferwise and it works well. Follow the instructions on the Stake website but it is straight forward and only involves a few additional steps.
A service like Transferwise however will charge you fees (surprise surprise) to convert from AUD to USD. However, it is very competitive and ends up being cheaper than transferring funds to Stake's AU wallet for USD conversion.
I plotted a quick graph below which shows the breakeven point of when it becomes cheaper to use Transferwise as it becomes harder to offset the flat US$5 fee charged by Stake at lower amounts.
After A$1,500, it becomes cheaper to use Transferwise. Spot rates are very similar to Stake.
Assumes AUD/USD 0.72 for both Stake and Transferwise for comparison purposes.
Hope the above is helpful. It did take me a while to get my head around the fees which at first glance, didn't make sense compared to Commsec structure for a buy-and-hold long-term investor such as myself. Perhaps Stake felt it would have been better to be transparent with their FX fees and how they make money, especially for those skeptical about free brokerage models. In any case, i think it's great they are transparent and makes me feel good about wanting to support the company. I bet there are a lot of people using the big 4 bank platforms who have no idea they are not getting the most competitive FX rate in the market.
Stake also offers fractional trades which are great if you want a piece of Bezos (pre the inevitable stock split) if you don't have enough pineapples. I'm not sure Commsec can do fractional shares - I could be wrong. If you are really keen, you can re-invest the your US dividends immediately to maximise that sweet sweet compounding given free brokerage. AFAIK you cannot participate in any DRP unfortunately with Stake.
NB: The above analysis also ignores other small administration fees which I have not bothered to compare.
Also I could be completely cooked and the above is wildly incorrect. As always. DYOR.
submitted by lifeDNP to AusFinance [link] [comments]

Collection of tips and tricks I've learnt overtime.

Tips and tricks ranging from the obvious to the lesser known. Feel free to post any new tips in the comments.
  1. Radioactive crystals have a glowing center. Mining it with a pickaxe neutralizes the radiation.
  2. Electric crystals on the other hand have no easy way to destroy. Don't attack them with your pickaxe, a power attack will take out most of your health bar. If you really need to destroy them shoot them instead. EDIT: "Drill underneath electric crystals to destroy them easily." ―Slime0
  3. You can increase your mining speed by repeatedly letting go of right click after your pickaxe hits, which cancels part of the mining animation.
  4. Bulks pause for a few seconds after spawning, attacking it during this time will cause them to aggro. If one spawns right in front of you, you have a few seconds to get to a safe distance before shooting.
  5. You can break your fall by landing on other dwarves and large enemies. You can also break your fall by grabbing a zipline or climbing up a ledge. Standing on top of items affected by gravity also breaks your fall. For example, standing on top of a lost pack hidden up a ceiling and mining it down will cause it to safely drop down along with you. Engie's platforms protect you from falls but only from a set distance.
  6. You can reroll the available missions as well as the beers in the abyss bar by changing your computer's system time.
  7. Your dwarf is pretty good at moving up steep slopes. For example, the crystal caverns have many large sloped crystals that can be used as roads or to break your fall.
  8. When you're using your map you can have your dwarf look in the direction you're pointing at by pressing spacebar.
  9. Jumping on barrels can launch you up in the air. Doing it right will allow you to move around the space rig faster than running.
  10. Scout can grapple towards a wall and power attack it to make a recess you can land in. This is difficult to do however.
  11. You can break open ebonuts faster by using drills.
  12. Freezing flying enemies kills them immediately. A single cryo grenade can kill a swarm of macteras and oneshot a breeder. Its also possible to grapple onto a breeder. Two cryo rockets from bosco also kills breeders.
  13. Tyrant weeds and bet-c don't automatically aggro and can be avoided.
  14. Don't worry too much about getting the last bits of minerals left in a vein. The last bits will give you as little as 0.1 materials. Mining less than 1.0 amount of a material will round up to 1 if your inventory is empty at the time. Materials are calculated on a hidden decimal system however and doing this won't give you the rounded up 1 material on deposit.
  15. Melee enemies can't reach you if you are in the middle of the air on a zipline. Ranged enemies can still shoot you and taking damage can cause you to fall off the zipline.
  16. Oppressors, bulks, and dreads can destroy terrain so try and keep them away from things like bunkers. Oppressors are also weak to pickaxe attacks.
  17. Large bits of terrain and materials can be instantly destroyed by mining out everything anchoring it to the wall or ground.
  18. Gunner's shield bubble regens your own shield, so it's still worth waiting in one for a sec even if you don't plan on staying in there for the whole duration.
  19. Buy all of the upgrades for your armor. Doing so will permanently increase your max HP. Besides that you also unlock skins for buying a certain amount of upgrades for your weapons and armor.
  20. Lava geysers can be destroyed with explosives and pickaxes. They explode when destroyed so avoid doing this with your pickaxe.
  21. If you really need the health you can shoot down red sugar that is out of reach. This doesn't work with all guns however.
  22. Steam oases in glacial maps have a small hole that shoots out hot air. Mining underneath a spring and going into the base of the hole will cause you to be launched up into the air.
  23. Supply pods are affected by gravity and mining the ground under it will cause it to fall down. This can kill you if you're drilling underneath it. Supply pods also kill enemies it lands on. Especially useful against oppressors. Supply pods can also be used to bring down certain materials out of reach by placing one directly underneath it, this is because they drill a hole into the ceiling as they are coming down.
  24. Dreads become resistant to explosives after losing their armor.
  25. Glacial glyphids are weak to fire and resistant to cryo weapons. Radioactive glypids are resistant to fat boys.
  26. You can replay the tutorial again by going to your miners manual, basics, then tutorial in the upper right.
  27. Some enemy weak points are destroyed after taking enough damage. Bonus damage can be maximized by using a hard hitting weapon before it breaks. For example, shooting an eye on a brood nexus with a point blank boomstick.
  28. Using fire weapons on frozen enemies and using cryo weapons on burning enemies give a small damage bonus. It's not really worth it in most situations as these weapons have negative synergy outside of this.
  29. Lost packs spawn only after finding a lost helmet. They cannot be found on accident.
  30. Spiderwebs can be burned.
  31. Stalactites in the salt flats and glacial strata can be shot down to damage enemies.
  32. Some materials count if they are left in your inventory on extraction (nitra, gold, magnite, croppa, etc). Carryable materials like enor pearls as well as beer materials must be deposited. Secondary objectives (boolo caps, ebonuts, etc) don't count unless deposited.
  33. Healing after using iron will revives you. This works with heals from using vampire.
  34. Loot bugs will eat dropped materials which can be gotten back by killing them. You evil monster.
  35. Morkite missions tend to be fairly linear with most of the available morkite near the end of the cave.
  36. Glyphid swarmers can spawn from purple tunnels dotting a wall if you get too close to it. This can be avoided by staying away.
  37. Some enemy projectiles can be shot down. This works on spitballers for example.
  38. You can disable the death effects of enemies by killing them while frozen. Praetorians won't release toxic gas and detonators won't explode, so be careful when using cryo weapons against a crassus.
  39. Exploders can be neutralized by killing them with a head shot.
  40. Your pickaxe also hits weak points so it's beneficial to aim for them when using a power attack on tankier enemies.
submitted by VicariouslyHuman to DeepRockGalactic [link] [comments]

Small and Mid-stakes grinder from 2006/07 returns in 2020. My story

Hi all
When I was 24 in 2006/07, I grinded a $50 deposit into playing NL200 and NL400 (i.e. 1/2 and 2/4 blinds), mostly on absolute poker, while I was at university. Obviously there are massive amounts of stories more impressive than mine, I thought some might get a kick out of what the games were like then vs now, and a few other thoughts.
Why I started again in 2020
I was a bit bored in lockdown but really enjoyed playing poker with friends over work (on a free site with video calls, with settling up $ after) so downloaded some poker clients to see what the games were like nowadays.
I ended up getting into it, signing up for upswing for 1 month and then RIO for 1 month (both good, but as you'll see below, probably not worth it given the state of the games).
I started in 2020 with a $150 deposit, and after ~70k hands it's sitting at $1300.
But the games are tough. I mean: insane. If you can't bet 25NL - don't feel bad. 25NL now is like 600NL used to be in 2006 and I'm not kidding. It's f'ing ridiculous. In 2006 if someone 3bet they had AK, AA, KK, or were a maniac.
I watched hours of upswing and RIO, and I can't believe the level these guys are teaching at. Literally no one was talking about blockers in 2006 at midstakes. Like, if someone had said I should vary call/bluff based on the fact that my hand held a busted flush draw I would have thought they were some weirdo ASD rainman. People probably did that at high stakes but they didn't talk about it.
Now, people seriously raise the question of whether the NL500 zoom is the toughest game on the planet, and it probably is! That is crazy! I was shit compared to good players, and I beat NL400 (non-zoom admittedly), for higher rates than the all but the very best players seem to beat NL500z!
Games in 2006/07
Let's talk about winrates. We used to measure winrates in "pokertracker big bets", which were 2x blinds. So if you played NL400 (I did), beat the game for 4ptbb/100 (I did), before rakeback (which I also got at ~50% on absolutepoker (lol) with bonuses + rakeback when rake was lower than it is now (!)), it meant that pre-rakeback I was winning at what people call 8bb/100 now. And then I got prolly 1.5bb/100 from rakeback as well.
I don't have my old pt database, but I have a saved old forum post when I "retired" (finished university, had 3 breakeven months at the 2007 games (lol), and got a professional job).
Over the 2 years I played an average of 14 hours a week, and won (with rakeback and bonuses) a total of $99 400 USD, for an average of $68 USD per hour.
Anyone remember that guy EMPIREMAKER2 or whatever his name was? Dude had played 100k hands at something like a 7ptbb/100 winrate (that is, 14bb/100) at NL$1000. Sure run hot but come on!
Games in 2020 and why it doesn't make sense to start poker now
Let's say the high point of poker for all but the very very best is the NL500zoom game. Let's say you can get 1k hands in per hour, and with bonuses, your winrate is 2bb/100. From my understanding, this is a very solid winrate at this game. That is 2 x 5 x 10 = $100 USD per hour.
That is pathetic. You would have to have immense natural talent, insane dedication, and huge grinding to build a massive bankroll to be rolled for it, and your reward is $100USD per hour?
Reality check: by the time you get to NL500zoom, it's probably harder than it is now, and the new game will be NL200zoom. Maybe you beat that for 4bb/100, and now your hourly rate is $80USD/hour. And what about next year?
In 2006/07, people talked about the good old days of 2004. In 2011, they were talking about 2007. In 2014, they were talking about pre-black friday. Now people hark back to 2014.
In 2025 they'll be talking about how easy the games were in 2020. If they're not it's because widespread real-time solvers have actually destroyed the game and it's just not being played.
Look at Doug Polk. Dude is a legend but is struggling coming back playing NL400 HU(down 30 buyins?) to train for his match against DNegs.
Mikka Anttonen put it well when he said (here: that it just doesn't make sense to start a poker career
I brokeven after bonuses/rakeback at my cashgames (NL10 to NL50) in 2020, but won a few MTTs which gave me all my profit. I'm not going to be playing any/much more online poker but I'll leave the money online in case I want to play some MTTs in a few weeks.

My suggestion:
- If you like poker as a hobby, softest online games are low stakes MTTs, so maybe fire up two of those if you're keen to play some poker.
- Seems like live poker is way easier. Home games are still fun.
- Cash games might be good for you if:
  1. You live in a very poor country and incomes in the local economy are low AND
  2. You are exceptionally smart and dedicated AND
  3. You can't emigrate AND
  4. You have exceptional mental strength/health and won't suffer the burnout all others would.
Anyway, hope this helps someone.
submitted by Carnifixibus to poker [link] [comments]

Managing Your Finances While Planning to Exit (For Minors)

About a month ago, I made a post on this subreddit here about managing your finances as a new exJW. After talking to more people on here, I've realized that my first post inadvertently has 2 critical flaws - 1. It assumes you're over 18, and 2. It assumes you have a job. I know many that are planning to leave are under 18 so I decided to make a quick guide targeted at that audience.
The organization holds us back financially in many ways, the most prevalent of them being a lack of a financial education. The extent of the financial education we receive from the borg is "spend less donate more". Unfortunately that's not going to cut it in the real world.
If you're under 18 and planning your exit, this is the post for you. If you don't have money, exiting will be much harder and you could be more inclined to go back to the Borg. Let's make sure that doesn't happen and get you ready to step out in to the real world! Believe it or not, you can take steps right now to ensure you will be ready as soon after your 18th birthday as possible! Just to show you its possible, I started working at 15, moved out at 17, and fully left the cult at 18. Today I live with my beautiful POMO girlfriend in our own home living life on our own terms. You can do it too!
This isn't a comprehensive guide by any means, but hopefully it will move you in the right direction financially and give you some help when planning how to leave the cult.
But first, legal disclaimer time - don't sue me bro. I'm not a financial advisor. This is not financial advice. Do your own research.
Let's dive in!
1. Open a bank account! (For Minors)
This is the very first step in your journey to financial freedom. You may be currently relying on your parents to manage your money or have a joint account with your parents, but that needs to change now! You need to be the one in control of your money so your parents can't take it away "for your own good". Most large national banks won't open an account for you as a minor without your parents being a co-owner on the account. For now, your best bet is going to a small local or regional bank. If it is in your area, I would recommend using First Convenience Bank. They are typically located inside of Walmarts or other grocery stores, they are only closed 3 days a year, and they will open a bank account for you at 16 without your parents. If they are not in your city, look on google for local banks and give them a call to see how old you have to be to open an account with them.
Depending on your situation, try to keep this account under wraps. Get paperless statements, try going to the bank alone, hide or uninstall the app from your phone, etc. However, if that is not an option then you will need a way to justify this for your parents. "I want to start saving money so that I can pioneego to bethel when I graduate" is a response that will invoke glee in most witness parents, but you know your parents better than anyone. Prepare for that conversation.
The single best thing you can do right now is build up a pile of money in a bank account to support yourself after you leave. Use this bank account to save every penny you can and keep it out of the hands of "caring" witness parents. Your parents aren't trying to hurt you, they have just been taught that controlling you with an iron fist and giving you no breathing room is the best way to parent.
2. Get a job!
To save money, you gotta have an income! At this point in your life, just about any job can help you out since your expenses are likely very low. On top of that, any job you can get will serve as experience on your resume for future jobs. Even a job at McDonald's can help your resume get you your next job. This job which is often looked down upon can still give you plenty of employable skills like money handling and cash drawer experience, sales experience, team work experience, high pressure environment experience, customer service experience, food preparation experience, and much more. Even better, you get paid!
Personally, I had some knowledge about computers from a young age, so I used that to get an IT job with a local company at 15. It wasn't a high paying job, but it paid better than minimum wage. I still do some work for the same company now years later, at a much better pay rate of course. My girlfriend got her first job at Freddies (fast food restaurant) at 17, then after a year used her money handling and customer service experience to get a job at Wells Fargo which pays her almost double! If you have any type of knowledge or experience, try using that to get a job!
Get any job you can! Many witness parents might be hesitant about letting you get a job, I know my mother was when I got my first job. But there's a few ways you can get around this by playing in to the witness mentally. You could say that you want to contribute more to the organization but since you're still too young to go to bethel or be a missionary, you can only contribute monetarily. You could say that you are planning on being a pioneer or trying to preach more, but in order to do that you need to be able to - buy a car, buy gas, buy food, buy service clothes, buy service tools, etc. Again, you know your parents best, you know what they want to hear from you, so give them that. I mean we've all lied about wanting to go to bethel at some point or another in our lives, right?
While living with your parents, your expenses are likely very low. Let's keep it that way! Enjoy that free rent and free food as long as possible! Expenses will quickly rise as soon as you become independent so saving up as much money as you can right now will help you deal with that when it comes.
3. Make Some Friends Outside the Borg!
I know, this goes against everything we've ever been taught. But really, the people in the world aren't all that bad. There are a lot of really nice friendly people that will genuinely care about you. Great places to start are at school or at work. Get to know some people, get their phone numbers, and become friendly with them. Any type of support network you can start to set up outside the borg will go a long ways once you leave. We all have to come to terms with the fact that everyone we know will shun us once we leave, so it really helps to have people outside that we can talk to. This also comes in handy for Section 5 of this post, getting roommates. You might be more comfortable getting a new place with someone you already know.
When you leave, everyone in the borg will think that you are suddenly suffering or miserable. Anytime they contact you it will be to give you a hand to come back to the borg and "help" you because you are suffering so much. Don't give them the satisfaction of being right!
4. Find Transportation!
Once you leave, you are going to need a way to get yourself around. If your city has good public transportation, learn how to use it! This is typically the lowest cost way to get around town which is very useful for getting to and from work. By using transportation, you don't have to pay for gas, maintenance, or insurance which can be a huge plus especially when you are trying to save money.
However, if that is not an option or if you are able to buy a car, that could be a better and more flexible option. A car can get you from point A to B directly and often quicker than public transportation. Unfortunately, you will have to pay for gas, maintenance, and insurance. If you are doing this under 18 you may need to get an insurance policy under your parents. Again, figure out what your parents want to hear from you to let you get a car, you know them best. "I need a car for service!"
5. Plan Your Exit! (Housing Expenses)
While you are under 18, you can't really do much on your own. Take advantage of this time to research and plan your exit. hats the only way you will know how much money you need to save and when you will be ready to move out. You need to know how much its all going to cost! The key expenses that you need to think about are housing, food.
Lets start with living arrangements. The rule of thumb is that you should never spend more than 1/3 of your income on rent, and most apartment complexes have that as a rule. If you are making $1,000 per month, you shouldn't be paying more than $300 a month in rent. If you are young and still earning a low income, that may be pretty limiting in your options. The easiest way to afford rent at a low income is to get roommates! If you get a place with one other person, suddenly you can afford a $600 a month place! If you get a place with two others, now you can afford a $900 a month place! Living with roommates may be awkward or weird at first. But this is your best way to afford a living space when you are first getting started, and you might even make a friend or two! If you live in a college town, you may even be able to find low cost housing arrangements made for students.
Also think about utilities. Look at the typical utility usage and cost for your area to get a sense of how much you will need every month. For one person this shouldn't be too much, especially if you are sharing the expense with roommates.
When you first rent a place, you will need to make an up front deposit. This can be up to one month rent, so you will need to have at least that much money saved up. You will also need to get some basic furniture. Maybe your parents will be nice enough to let you keep some of your furniture, but if not, you can start shopping around to get an idea of what you need. In my opinion, the only absolutely necessary piece of furniture is a mattress, after all you need a good nights sleep to keep your body functioning well. For any furniture, don't go to a furniture store! Everything at a furniture store is marked up many times higher than its worth. Instead, look on Amazon or other online stores! Your mattress is the one thing I would say you want to buy new as opposed to used. That's just because you never know the history of a mattress, and since you spend about half of your life on it you're better off having your own. On Amazon, you can find twin mattresses for under $100, and queen mattresses for around $200.
For any other furniture, use craigslist, facebook marketplace, or any peer to peer selling marketplace to find them. You can get amazing deals on these things, and sometimes even get them for free! You know your lifestyle better than I do, but some other pieces of furniture that can make your home more comfortable are a bed frame, chairs, a table, a couch. Remember, these aren't the pieces of furniture you are going to own forever so you don't need the nicest stuff. You also don't need to buy everything at the same time. You just need furniture to get you started.
Start planning a budget for what you are going to need when you move out.
6. Plan Your Exit! (Food)
After putting a roof over your head, food is your next biggest concern. The absolute biggest way to save in this department is to do your own cooking. A $10 plate of pasta from a restaurant can be recreated at home for under $3. Even if you have no experience cooking, give it a shot! Start easy with pasta or rice and work your way up from there. There are an uncountable amount of videos on YouTube teaching you how to cook, and needless to say YouTube is free. Try learning to cook at home with your parents so you can get the hang of it and start learning your favorite recipes.
The most basic things you need to cook are a pot, a cooking spoon, a bowl, a fork, and Tupperware. All of these things can be acquired inexpensively at a thrift shop, or if you want to splash a bit more cash you can get them new online or in store. My advice is to get a decent pot for cooking instead of the cheapest piece of junk. I've made that mistake before and the food never turned out good, it was usually unevenly cooked. With a nice set of pots, your food will come out much better.
Some pantry essentials should be salt, Pasta, Pasta Sauce, Rice, Beans, cans of vegetables, and anything else you like and eat regularly such as cereal, mac & cheese, tortillas, cheese, and spices. To reduce your cost even more, buy store brands or generic brands. They are the exact same thing as the name brand but at a fraction of the cost. If done right, you can keep your cost per serving under $1. When you make your own food, you can make extra to end up with leftovers to take to work for lunch or have another dinner. 1 box of pasta and 1/2 a jar of sauce will make 3-4 servings at a cost of less than $1 each. Realistically, your food expenses should only be a couple of hundred dollars a month. Think about what you like eating and plan a budget for that.
7. Plan Your Exit! (Other Expenses)
Living on your own and maintaining yourself, you will have many expenses. There's phone, internet, insurance, entertainment, and discretionary spending. Take some time to think about what you consider essentials and plan for those expenses. Do a bit of research to see if you can find things cheaper. All that money saved will add up in the long run.
My advice for new ExJWs is to budget some discretionary spending. You have lived your whole life sheltered and unable to do things for yourself. Use a bit of money every month to experience the world around you and to do something that you want to do. More important than anything else, you need to take care of yourself and your emotional and mental well being. If watching movies is your thing, treat yourself to a movie night at a theater. If getting a manicure or pedicure is your thing, then treat yourself to a spa day. Think about what makes you happy, and budget that in.
Closing Remarks
I'm not going to lie to you, leaving the borg is going to be one of the hardest things you do, but it will also be one of the best things you ever do. If you have already made your decision but are under 18, that gives you an advantage over the borg, it gives you time to plan and prepare. Use this time wisely while you can to save up money and prepare yourself mentally and financially for this huge step in your life.
So many of us have been in your shoes and know how it feels. I promise you life will get better! The world is a beautiful place and not as scary as the borg wants you to think. This entire subreddit is here to help you in this process, use that support network!
Throw the borg the finger on your way out and never look back!
I wish you all the best!
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10/05 - MNF Action -Falcons vs Packers Side & Total + MLB Major Move

10/05 - MNF Action -Falcons vs Packers Side & Total + MLB Major Move
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MAC's Top Rated Early Info NFL Picks -

10/05 - Atlanta Falcons +7.5 vs Green Bay Packers -7.5 – The Falcons are looking horrible, desperate for a win after blowing huge leads, these guys are despicable. They have no chance against a Packers team that is looking like the Green Bay Bret Favres from back in the day. GB's defense is iffy and that could be a big problem for those looking for the easy money this week, the safe play is looking like the over, set at unusual high of 58, and early info is coming in on the Atlanta Falcons that is putting value behind taking the 7.5 point dogs on MNF. - Check the odds at MyBookie and claim your bonus!
Play: Over 58 (+25 UNITS) Play: Atlanta Falcons +7.5 (+25 UNITS)

MAC's MLB Major Move Alert -

Hou Astros L MCCULLERS JR -R vs Oak Athletics C BASSITT -R
Play: Over 8 (+10 UNITS)
Ny Yankees G COLE -R vs Tam Rays B SNELL -L
Play: Yankees RL -1.5 (+10 UNITS)
Promo Code - THEMAC
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Week 6 NCAAF ATS Predictions, Trends and Analysis

Week 6 NCAAF ATS Predictions, Trends and Analysis
XBet Promo Code - MACSXB

Week 6 NCAAF ATS Predictions, Trends and Analysis courtesy of

Written by Lester Cullen on October 8, 2020
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Boom...and we’re in Week 6 of the college football season (Corona Edition), even the SEC came to play. We will take a look at some of our consensus plays and provide some opinion based insight to put together some ATS winners.
For starters we will look at the Gators/Aggies matchup. The line has fluctuated from 7 to 6.5 and currently at Caesars Palace the spread is Florida Gators -6.5 -115 and Texas A&M +6.5 -105, linemakers are playing with the juice, moving it around a bit and charging to get the dog, they must think they have the number nailed at a touchdown spread and MAC is looking to beat that number!
Florida Gators vs Texas A&M Aggies
The Florida Gators have come out of the gate hot, QB Kyle Trask throwing 10 TD passes through their opening two games of the season. They have busted open the ATS record, going 8-3-1 through their last 12 games a legit 2-0 and ranked No. 4 in the AP poll after Georgia took the lead ahead of them following the Bulldogs win over Auburn.
The Aggies are 1-1 to start the season and they have a weak secondary that should get destroyed by the Gators offense. The MAC tends to stay away from Conference games because odds are usually tight & tough, it can be hard to find a solid pick, but our consensus groups have the Gators as a move and with the spread less than a TD this game has value
Play - Gators -6.5 (+10 Units)
Quick Trends-
  • Over is 4-0 in Gators last 4 games overall.
  • Over is 4-0 in Gators last 4 games as a favorite.
  • Over is 5-0 in Gators last 5 games on grass.
  • Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
  • Over is 8-1 in Gators last 9 games as a road favorite
  • Under is 4-0 in Aggies last 4 games following a straight up loss.
  • Over is 4-0 in Aggies last 4 games as a home underdog.
  • Aggies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
  • Aggies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
  • Under is 7-1 in Aggies last 8 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Pittsburgh Panthers vs Boston College Eagles
If you look at the recent trends for the Panthers, you see a team that is just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games. That being said, the Panthers have been winning their games outright, they are 3-1 in the early going of the season, they just can’t get a cover, it’s pathetic, oddsmakers are cashing in on Pitt.
The Eagles have been great ATS, covering in 8 of their last 10, but as far as this game, our information is telling us to stay away. Boston College defense has nothing to brag about, unable to stop 3rd conversions makes a case for betting the over, the offense can’t run the ball, averaging 2.4 yards a carry, and they are last in the ACC in both of these categories. Jurkovec has thrown 2 picks, one in the end zone and the Heels took it home for a meaningless win, one good thing is they don’t lose fumbles and are +5 in turnover margin. MAC has Panthers to win this one, the line is -6 and has moved back and forth from 6.5 and 6, but most importantly MAC sees action coming in on the total and is moving on the over, opening at 46 and currently set at 44 this should be an easy 55-60 point game. The trends seems to be the under but going against the grain is why The MAC is one of the most recognized sports gamblers in the industry.
MAC’s Final Score Prediction - Pitt 35 - BC 23
Play - Over 44 (+5 Units)
Play - Pitt -6 (+5 Units)
Quick Trends:
  • Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
  • Under is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 5-0 in Eagles last 5 games as an underdog
Miami Hurricanes vs Clemson Tigers
Given how dominant the Tigers have been in the ACC over the past few years, it is usually a bad idea to bet against them.The odds makers are giving them too much respect, our scouts are saying the line isn’t this high because of public money, it’s an inflated spread and could be a suckers bet. Let’s consider the fact that the Tigers have failed to cover this season and are now on a run of failing to cover in 4 straight games. MAC says play the ML hedge if laying the points, be smart and use bankroll management.
The Hurricanes have not had a lot of joy against Clemson in recent years, but are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus conference foes. With 43.3 points scored this season they are ranked #7, this could be another over play, though with the total set at 62, we will have to wait to see some line movement before placing any action on it.MAC has no apprehension when it comes to taking a shot and going against the grain, it’s what makes him a Vegas specialty. Take Miami to cover, take them, take the points, and take it to the bank.
MAC’s Final Score Prediction - Miami 21 - Clemson 35
Play: Miami +15 (+15 Units)
Play: Miami ML +450 (+4 UNITS)
Quick Trends:
  • Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
  • Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
  • Hurricanes are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Hurricanes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
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[RF] Cancun

I was a kid from divorced parents. Both of my parents got remarried and started over with their new kids.
I was the kid that both of my parents regretted and they both wished, I would just go away. Both of my parents wanted to start a new life and both of my step parents saw me nothing more than trouble.
I wound up staying at my grandmother’s house, who unfortunately passed away my first year of college in 1994.
I was basically alone in life as a freshman at East Stroudsburg University.
My desperation for a sense of acceptance and belonging really did nothing more than push people away from me.
I would drink whatever and smoke whatever as long as people would notice my existence.
I stayed in the freshman dorms. It was close to spring break and the guys in the dorm were planning a trip to Cancun through a travel agency.
The guys in my dorm had a group of 10 people, which they needed to get a discounted group rate to go to Cancun.
Of course nobody would even bother to ask me if I was interested in going.
Then, a week before they were supposed to leave, one of the guy’s couldn’t pay the required deposit.
It was a bit demeaning, but after 20 other guys declined to go, then they asked me. I had enough money from my grandmother’s passing, so I said why not.
We had a Taxi take us to Newark airport and our trip was for three days.
Even though, I was the tag along, I still had a really good time.
The last night we were there I got completely intoxicated to the point where most of the night was a blur.
I do remember that we had to catch the shuttle bus the next morning to the airport, so I made sure the alarm clock was set for 8:00 am. I shared the room with four other guys from my college.
The next morning came and I remembered being alone in the hotel room. I looked at the clock and it said 6:00 o’clock. I thought everyone had returned to the room from the night before.
I was now awake and I wanted to know where the other guys in my room went. I opened my hotel door and I could see a row of housekeeping carts.
I walked towards the other hotel room, where the other five guys were staying and I saw housekeepers had finished cleaning their room.
I think to myself that the guys probably got up early and went to the hotel lobby for the free continental breakfast.
I walk over to the lobby and I realize that it is completely empty of any tourist. I don’t see the nine other guys from my college or any other college kids.
I am now a little bit nervous because I don’t know what the hell is going on.
I go back to my room and realize that my wallet’s missing but my suitcase is still there.
I am now hyperventilating because I’m 18 years old and I have no idea what is going on.
I walk back to the lobby and I talk to the person at the front desk. She informs me that it’s 6:15 pm and everyone has checked out.
Both of my hands grab my hair on top of my head and I am totally shocked. I explain my situation to the woman at the lobby and she basically tells me that without money, I had to leave the property.
I asked her to use their phone and she pointed to the pay phone.
I tried calling first my mother and then my father and neither of them would accept my call. I also never told them that I was going to Mexico, so perhaps they didn’t know it was me calling.
So now I’m pleading with the woman in the lobby to help me. She eventually gets tired of me and gets security to escort me off the property with my bag.
It is now dark out and I’m alone with no money. I was so hung over and overwhelmed that I just fell asleep on the sidewalk in front of the hotel.
The next morning, I just started walking in a direction that I felt was north. I knew it was over a thousand miles to the Texas border and I really had no plan.
So, I walked and walked and walked. I had a water bottle and a bag of chips and no other food. My face and arms are now completely sun burnt.
I feel like a complete outsider. I get occasional looks of mistrust from the local people. I now knew what it was like to be a homeless immigrant. All I need is help and I only know a few words of Spanish.
My watch says 5:00 pm and I hear a large gathering coming from a bar. I get closer and I see that there boxing going on. I see a sign with the words that included $1000 Pesos, which I assume is the prize money for each fight.
I really have no choice, so I eventually get the organizers to understand, that I want to box. It was a small step above bare knuckles, where I was given basically two ace bandages to wrap around my fist.
I first eat the remaining chips I have left and I then wrap my hands up. I didn’t do it right, so I kept on wrapping them until it kind of looked like the other fighters wrapped hands.
I wait on the side of the ring until it’s my turn. I watch in horror as fighter after fighter pummel each other. I have been beaten up before by bullies, but I never have won a fight.
All of these fighters are short and completely ripped and I’m tall and skinny.
My thoughts were to use my reach and not let my opponent get close to me.
Each fight is one five minute round.
I get cued from the announcer that it’s my turn. I hear the word “gringo” and I couldn’t make out anything else. I am trembling in absolute fear. Everyone is yelling and screaming and nobody wants me to win. I see the crowds faces and everyone is grimacing at me.
I hear the sound of the bell and my opponent, who is about my weight but eight inches shorter than me, lunges towards me. I move backwards around the ring and continually throw punches. I don’t know if the punches are hurting him, but I continually land them.
A few times he corners me against the ropes and lands a bunch of punches to my face. My adrenaline is racing that I barely feel the punches. I kept on managing to get myself off the ropes and I kept on punching him as I moved backwards. I don’t know how much time is left but my arms get tired and I can barely keep them up. I also know that if I loose, then I starve to death. I finally hear the bell ring and I try not to show my exhaustion.
The referee consults with the side judges and then he comes to the center of the ring with my opponent. The announcer say a bunch of words that I don’t understand, then he holds my hand up in victory. Everyone in the crowd boos and the announcer gives me an envelope with the money in it.
My jaw starts to feel sore as I open and close my mouth. My arms and legs hurt from fatigue and from being sunburnt.
I fill up my water bottle from a public water fountain. I come up with a plan to drink only water and buy the cheapest food.
I decide to pass out under a tree not far from the bar. The only real motivation I have is revenge on the nine guys that left me to die and stole my money.
I’m so exhausted that I pass out. I wake up and continue to walk. I ditch my suitcase because it’s to cumbersome and heavy. I come across a church and I meet a man. I couldn’t understand a word he said but he gave me a map. I think he realized that I was trying to go to the United States. I now feel better that I have a map and I have some sense of direction.
So, I continue to walk and walk about 30 miles a day, I estimated. I fill my water bottle up at every opportunity. I start traveling at night to avoid the sun.
I am terrified of the darkness most of the time of whatever awaits me as I push forward.
I have now completed a week and estimate that I’ll probably need three more weeks to reach the border.
I’m now approaching the second week and I’m walking at about 3:00 am in the morning and a pick up truck filled with armed men force me in the back of the pickup.
They drive me to a heavily guarded compound.
They force me off the truck and into the middle of a courtyard. I see a man holding back a husky Rottweiler.
A large group of men form a circle around me. The men give money to one guy and I quickly figure out that there betting going on in a dog fight, but it’s not two dogs it’s me vs the dog.
Once the bets are settled then the man releases the dog. The dog looks like it’s possessed. It looks like it wants to eat me. The dog growls at it runs towards me. As the dog lunges at me I instinctively try to grab its neck with both hands and pin it to the ground. I pound the dog unmercifully against the ground until it stops moving.
The men stop yelling and open the door to let me exit the compound. At this point, I feel like a complete animal.
I haven’t showered in almost two weeks and I’m wearing the same clothes as well. I pass through virtual deserts in the middle of the night and I eventually come across small towns.
I hear coyotes and wolves continually throughout the night.
I don’t know if I’m starting to get delirious, but I start to see people walking with me. The only thing is the people are dead. They are dressed in tuxedos from the 1960’s.
I’m not sure if these are the images a person see’s before they die themselves. I can make them out pretty well in the moonlight.
I’ve been petrified the whole walk and seeing these figures kind of adds a new dimension of fear. They kind of walk aimlessly in my same direction. I constantly look over my shoulders and look around me to make sure their not too close.
I lie to myself and think they were sent by my Grandmother. Eventually, I convince myself there fake and they disappear.
The sun starts to come up and I see a sign for Texas and the U.S. border showing 180 miles and I figure, I can do it in six days. I find a shady spot and I pass out. I’ve been coming across avocados sporadically and I eat as much as I could as I’m running out of Pesos.
I have been buying mostly cheapest bread from wherever I can. I feel deficient of every vitamin and mineral.
I am envisioning what horrible things I’ll do to those nine guys who left me to die.
I wake up and force my legs forward. All I need to do is make it to the US border.
I’m on a desolate road and I see two cars coming from behind me. I have a sense that there trouble and I count eight men total in both of the cars.
The two cars drive in circles around me and cause a tornado of dust. They eventually stop their cars and all of the men get out.
Then, they all move towards me and just beat the crap out of me. I crawl up in a fetal position and do my best to protect my head. Eventually they stop and drive off. I am bruised all over my body and i'm certain i broke a couple of ribs.
I can’t really move so I decide to pass out on the side of the road.
I wake up as the sun comes up and I’m greeted by a lifesaver. It is an old beat up bus that asks me if I wanted a ride to the border. I jump at the opportunity, but soon realize that I can barely walk and when I do it’s extremely painful.
I head on the bus and the ride takes about four hours to make it to the border. I felt bad for the people on the bus because I must of stunk so bad.
I fill out the necessary paperwork at the border for someone who has no ID. I’m assisted by a social worker to access money from my bank account.
I get money wired to me from my bank and once I get the money, then I rent a room. I buy a bunch of candy bars and Soda. I buy whatever clothes from the tourist shop and I take an hour long shower. I then pass out for 12 hours.
I then head to the bus stop and I take four different busses to get back to a East Stroudsburg University.
I get to the University and head to my dorm room. I decide to play it off that my father helped me and I’ve been staying at his house all this time. The semester is almost over and I don’t bother with going to class and now I focus on pure revenge towards those nine guys who left me to die.
I’m still in pain and I wait a few days before I plot my revenge.
Eventually, I see each one of the nine guys and they all acted like nothing happened and shrugged it off as oh well you just missed your plane.
What I figured out was those bastards gave my ID to some Mexican kid and he taped himself up with a bunch of narcotics and flew back using my plane ticket. Prior to September 11 nobody really took airport security serious and all you had to do was flash your ID and have a plane ticket.
So, I decided to use the remaining money my Grandmother left me and I rented a house under a fake name. I played it off to the nine guys, that it was my fault for over sleeping in Mexico and that I really just wanted to be friends with them.
I then convinced them to come to this house party I was throwing. I got a bunch of ecstasy and alcohol and I also purchased a bunch of male transvestites. I let the ecstasy and alcohol work it’s magic, then I videotaped all nine of them in sexual acts with the transvestites.
I made over a hundred copies and I sent the copies to their families, to everyone in our dorm, ....
Needless to say they all dropped out from the embarrassment and at least I got a little solace.
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MAC's Top Rated Early Info NFL Picks

MAC's Top Rated Early Info NFL Picks
Promo Code - THEMAC

MAC's Top Rated Early Info NFL Picks

Contact: [email protected]
Phone: THE RED LINE - (Toll-Free @ 1-844-334-2613) The Red Line - (Toll-Free @ 1-844-334-2613) - Text The Red Line to get a free exclusive release prediction.
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10/05 - Atlanta Falcons +7.5 vs Green Bay Packers -7.5 – The Falcons are looking horrible, desperate for a win after blowing huge leads, these guys are despicable. They have no chance against a Packers team that is looking like the Green Bay Bret Favres from back in the day. GB's defense is iffy and that could be a big problem for those looking for the easy money this week, the safe play is looking like the over, set at unusual high of 58, and early info is coming in on the Atlanta Falcons that is putting value behind taking the 7.5 point dogs on MNF.
Play: Over 58
10/04 - Indianapolis Colts -2.5 vs Chicago Bears +2.5 – MAC isn't surprised the Bears are 3-0, and money coming in on the Colts is telling MAC and they will keep it going this weekend. The Colts, these guys after losing their season opener are trying to fool people into thinking they pulled it together and made the "necessary adjustments"...MAC is calling B.S. and taking the home dogs because he's old school and knows value when he sees it.
Play: Chicago +2.5
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Use Promo Code - THEMAC



Contact: [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected])
Phone: THE RED LINE - (Toll-Free @ 1-844-334-2613)
The Red Line - (Toll-Free @ 1-844-334-2613) - Text The Red Line to get a free exclusive release prediction.
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MAC's Week 3 NFL Update & Game Predictions - Below
Week 2 in the National Football League was as wild as it gets. The Cowboys provided one of the greatest comebacks in history, and the injury bug hit the San Francisco 49ers. MAC has 3 Top Rated NFL plays today plus his exclusive 2x NFL parlay. The MAC has been riding the magic bull, special release plays going 4-1 in weeks 1-2-3 and today will be a true bookie smasher day. MAC is making bankrolls fat again for his Patreon Clients and Gambling Report subscribers have been reporting record earnings since the start of the newsletter! Today's game releses are courtesy of the team as well as Roland "The Roarin MAC" McGuillaman - The Odds Maker Assassin and International Sharp Betting, A True Sports Betting Professional! Get Today's NFL Hush Money Move + MAC's Late Info Action only on Patreon - $7.00 Get's all MAC's Special Release Action & Top Stock Picks and Options Moves for 1 Month. Guaranteed to make you a fatter bankroll!! - MAC's Picks

MAC's Week 3 NFL Update & Game Predictions -

Week 2 in the National Football League was as wild as it gets. The Cowboys provided one of the greatest comebacks in history, and the injury bug hit the San Francisco 49ers.
2021 Super Bowl LV Odds
  • Kansas City Chiefs +500
  • Baltimore Ravens +500
  • San Francisco 49ers +1200
  • New England Patriots +1800
  • New Orleans Saints +900
  • Pittsburgh Steelers +1800
  • Dallas Cowboys +1600
  • L.A. Chargers +5000
  • Green Bay Packers +2000
  • Seattle Seahawks +1200
  • Philadelphia Eagles +4000
  • L.A. Rams +2200 (MAC's Long shot)
  • Cleveland Browns +4000
  • Minnesota Vikings +4000
  • L.A. Raiders +5000 (MAC's Money Mover)
  • Indianapolis Colts +2500
  • Tennessee Titans +2200
  • Houston Texans +6600
  • Chicago Bears +5000
  • Atlanta Falcons +8000
  • Buffalo Bills +2200
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1600
  • Denver Broncos +10000
  • Carolina Panthers +17500
  • New York Giants +15000
  • New York Jets +20000
  • Detroit Lions +10000
  • Arizona Cardinals +2000
  • Jacksonville Jaguars +17500
  • Cincinnati Bengals +20000
  • Miami Dolphins +15000
  • Washington Football Team +12500
San Francisco 49ers lose Nick Bosa and Solomon Thomas - The 49ers beat the New York Jets 31-13 in Week 2, but it came with a huge cost. The Niners two starting defensive-ends, Nick Bosa and Solomon Thomas, suffered ACL injuries. Both are out from 6 to 8 weeks. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is questionable in Week 3 due to a knee injury. Running back Raheem Mostert is listed as doubtful due to an MCL sprain. The 49ers play the New York Giants in Week 3.
There’s a good likelihood the Niners sit both players even if either is ready to go. San Francisco is 1-1. Their next division game is in Week 6. That’s the battle coach Kyle Shanahan should circle for Mostert’s return. Garoppolo should be ready by Week 4. When it comes to Bosa and Thomas, other defenders must step it up. The 49ers have a good defense, but they lost Richard Sherman in the first week. The Giants, Philadelphia Eagles, and Miami Dolphins are there next three opponents. But, after that, the Niners play the Rams, New England Patriots, Seattle Seahawks, Green Bay Packers, and New Orleans Saints all in a row. Things could get tough for the SF defense unless a couple of players step it up.
Cowboys provide amazing comeback against Falcons - At halftime of Sunday’s win against the Atlanta Falcons, the Dallas Cowboys were down 29-10. Not only did the Cowboys come back and win, but they came back to win 40-39. The Boys got an onside kick, unheard of in today’s NFL, and then converted a field goal. What’s interesting about the onside kick is that instead of pouncing on the football, Falcon players waited for it to go out of bounds. That makes absolutely no sense and is the reason the Cowboys were able to notch their first win of the season. Atlanta’s defense is the worst in the NFL. Coach Dan Quinn is on the hot seat because of it. Boneheaded plays like the one that led to the loss at home won’t help Quinn’s case to keep his job.
Ravens and Chiefs on collision course in NFL Week 3 - There were other Week 2 highlights. The Las Vegas Raiders opened Allegiant Stadium with a solid 31-24 win over the New Orleans Saints while the Seattle Seahawks and Russell Wilson beat Cam Newton and the New England Patriots 35-30. Also, both the Ravens and Chiefs won their respective games. The Baltimore Ravens beat the Houston Texans 33-16 while the KC Chiefs required overtime to beat the Chargers 23-20. Los Angeles quarterback Justin Herbert played exceptionally well. Coach Anthony Lynn said Herbert would remain the backup if Tyrod Taylor were healthy enough to play in Week 3. We’ll see how long Lynn sticks with that plan. Next Monday night, the Chiefs and Ravens battle. Baltimore looks like the team to beat in the AFC. They were the team to beat last season as well. It will be interesting to see how the Ravens’ defense handles Patrick Mahomes.

MAC's Top Rated NFL Picks and Parlays - NFL Odds at MyBookie

09/27 - 01:00 PM - Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Play: Pittsburgh Steelers -4
09/27 - 01:00 PM - Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons
Play: Over 47
09/27 - 08:20 PM - Green Bay Packers vs New Orleans Saints
Play: New Orleans Saints -3
09/27 - MAC's 2x NFL Parlay
09/27 - 04:25 PM Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals
Play: Over 54.5
09/27 - 01:00 PM - Washington Football Team vs Cleveland Browns
Play: Over 44
Promo Code - THEMAC
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