Sports Betting Odds Payout Calculator - Boyd's Bets

The Premier League is back this weekend, which means a resurgence in Match Betting. Here is my 3 Part Mega Guide to making £500 for several hours work, and then making £500- £1000 on a monthly basis.

So a lot of you will know that I regularly post guides and tips about match betting, However since the same questions always come up in the comments, I decided to make one big, very thorough Mega Guide in order to eliminate as many doubts as possible for you guys. Like I said before, This guide is a handy way to sort out a month's rent for 5 or 6 hours work, so I really hope it can be of use to someone. Anyway, Here it is:
PART 1: MATCH BETTING EXPLAINED; HOW TO MAKE £500 IN 5/6 HOURS
Having done my research and having been able to turn a really nice profit in such a short time, I wanted to make a short guide to eliminate people's doubts and simplify things a little. Since it really doesn't take a lot of time to hit that £500 profit mark, it's a shame not to try it out. Anyway, Here it goes:
I was sceptical as hell about Match betting because a friend showed me the Facebook groups and it just looked like a giant gambling pyramid scheme. It turns out there is a decent chunk of change to be made from it, you just need to follow the guides and never ever actually gamble with your money.
Never ever Gamble? Yes That's right, you are going to be using Gambling sites to complete the various offers, but the whole idea behind match betting is that every time you "make a bet", you match that same bet on the exchange. So for example, if I bet £10 for Real Madrid to Win on the Bookie Site at odds of 2.5, I then also make a Matched bet on the Exchange (This is a separate site such as Smarkets or Betfair) where I bet for Real Madrid not to win at odds of 2.5 (or as close as I can get to those odds). In this way I am covered in all outcomes, and it allows me to fulfill the requirements of the bookies offer (For example Bet £10 and get £30 in Free bets)
What's the difference between the Bookie Site and the Exchange? On the Exchange Site you are basically being the Bookie and just like a Bookie, you have liability. If I bet £10 and my bet wins at odds of 2.5 then I win £25, so the bookies liability for this bet is £15, the extra money that they would have to give me if I win. There are calculators on the Match betting sites which you can use to calculate what Liability you need to enter on the exchange each time you make your matched bet. There is also software to help you find what games have the closest odds on both the bookies and the exchange, which is very important.
What do I do when I get my free bets? It's the same process again, You find a game that has very close odds on both the bookies and the exchange ( You can do this by eye or by using odds matching software. A good site with this software is called OddsMonkey). Only this time when you use the calculator to work out your liability, you will set it to "Free bets SNR" so it knows you are not using real money. It will tell you how much Liability to use in the exchange and off you go.
How does this make me money? The fact that you have a free bet to use is what makes you money, For example a £30 free bet at odds of 5.5 in the bookies will win you £135 (30x 4.5, because the original free bet stake of £30 is not returned to you). Now let's say that the closest odds I can find in the Exchange for the same game are 6.0, I will need a liability of £112.50 to match my free bet in the bookies ( I use the calculator on oddsmonkey to work this out)
£135- 112.50 = £22.50 in Profit.
Alternatively if my bet on the exchange wins, I will lose the free bet of £30 (but it's not actually a loss to me because It's not real money) and I will win £22.50 on the exchange. Either way, I make a Profit of £22.50
What about providing card details? You can use a separate, virtual bank account for all your match betting, In this way your main banking information is not shared with any of the sites you sign up to. A good one to use is Monzo, the app is easy to use and it only takes 5 minutes to open an account. It's free to open an account and last I checked they actually have a referral scheme where you get £5 if you sign up through a referral link.
Non Referral here: https://monzo.com/
Where can I learn to do it? There are some sites that you have to pay a monthly subscription to but I found one called Team Profit that is free and has a full guide of all the different offers you can complete.
I worked my way down through the list of offers, nice and handy, and having completed 20 offers at 15 minutes per offer, I came out at £470 for 5 hours total of work.
If you are new to this site and are opening a free account I would really appreciate if you use my Referral (£10)
Here is the non referral link to the page with all the offers: https://www.teamprofit.com/welcome-offers-list
TLDR: You do not need to "gamble" to match bet, in fact by definition, the bet you make is "matched" on the exchange, so it is not a gamble in any sense.

PART 2: MAKING £500-£1000 EVERY MONTH.
You may sometimes see people commenting saying they have made a lot more money since finishing the welcome offers, £1000-£1500 a month and such, but never saying exactly how...
Personally I have made a lot more profit every month since I finished the welcome offers, Usually around the £1000 per month mark.
People say that Match betting drys up once you finish the welcome offers but this is simply not true, it's a matter of being more organised and checking your email for new offers, while also checking the Reload Offers section on Team Profit every morning (Takes literally 5 minutes)
Below is an Example from last month where I made £300 in one week. Bare in mind that the amount you make weekly will vary with the amount of sport that is on, but as long as there's sport, you will always be able to earn. This example is simply to show you the potential Match Betting has long after you've completed the Welcome offers:
Here's exactly how I did it:
Coral: Money back as a free bet up to £50 if your team is ahead in the first half but doesn't win the match in the end: Matched 5 Premier League games, 3 were successful. I received three £50 free bets which I matched and turned into £130 profit risk free. £130 in 30 minutes
William Hill: Money Back as Cash if your horse comes 2nd- 2 of the 6 horses I matched came 2nd, I was also able to make a profit by just matching the bets because my odds were higher on the bookies side by using the Happy Hour odds (between 12pm-1pm, 3 horses with enhanced odds) and also the 3 daily bet boosts on Horse raising( to boost my odds on another 3 horses). £20 in 5 minutes
Paddy Power: Money Back up to £10 if Horse comes 2nd 3rd or 4th, Matched the horse with the lowest odds and sure enough it came 3rd, got my £10 free bet. £8 in 3 minutes
Skybet: Money Back as cash up to £10 if Horse comes 2nd 3rd or 4th, Matched the horse with the lowest odds and sure enough it came 3rd, got my £10. £9.50 in 3 minutes
Skybet: Wednesday Super odds: Matched the three super odds on the exchange and due to the difference in odds (If the odds on the bookies are greater than those for same bet on the exchange you are automatically profiting). £10 in 3 minutes
Boylesports: £10 Free bet if your bet loses(Premier League Match): £8 in 3 minutes
Paddy Power 2up: An offer where you get paid out early if your time goes up by 2 goals, the profit varies depending on what the odds on the exchange are when you back the team you orignally lay against, but this offer can make you a lot of profit (You will need to download the team profit calculator app and use the early payout calculator). Last week it Made me £35. £35 in 5 minutes
Novibet: Deposit £100 and get a £50 free bet. Very easy because you just have to deposit the money, get your free bet, withdraw your £100 straight away, then match the free bet on the exchange. £40 in 5 minutes
Coral: Bet 3x £5 in play and get a £5 free bet-Availble everyday. Just match these at half time so the odds are stable, Make sure you also place mug bets every couple of days if you do this one a lot, I would reccomend doing it 5 times a week tops. £20 in 30 minutes
Paddy Powe Skybet Bet clubs: Bet 5x £10 bets in a week to get a £10 free bet with Paddy Power. Bet £25 in a week to get a £5 free bet with Skybet. £10 in 30 minutes

Above you can see the reality of making profit long after you've finished the welcome offers, but it comes down to organisation.
So in Summary, these are my 6 Rules for making a monthly Profit:
(1) Check your email daily for offers, many times bookies will send you personalised offers just for you, and these can be very VERY generous.
(2) Check the Reload Offers section on Team profit every morning to see what offers are available that day.
(3) Offers change all the time- Don't let this put you off. There are always new offers to replace the previous ones. There are also Weekly/Daily offers ( Coral £50 free bet, Paddy power refund if 2nd 3rd 4th, William hill money back if second, Paddy Power 2up, Bet clubs etc) which are constantly available when sport is on.
(4) Make Mug bets ( Explained more in PART 3)
(5) It all adds up. Don't think "It's only a £5 free bet, not worth matching". I get around 15 £5 free bets every week, If I ignored them all I would be down £200 at the end of the month.
(6) Don't spend all day at it. Once you've checked your email and reload offers, you know what offers you need to do that day. Set alarms so you can make your matches before each event starts, but don't spend ages sitting at your computer waiting for "the perfect match", for your own mental health, set a time limit of 1 hour per day at most.

PART 3: FAQ
(1) How much money do you need to put in to start?
When you go onto the offers page on Team Profit after signing up, there is an option to start with £25, £50 or £100. You can select one of those three options And it will show you a different number of offers according to your selection. I started with £100 because I wanted to get things moving a little quicker. I did this so that I would have enough money for liability to do a bigger earning offer at the start. One year later, and having see the potential for profit, I keep around £500 floating between my accounts. This is useful for large sporting events where I may want to do around 10- 15 offers in a short time.
(2) Is it in anyway going to impact my credit score?
Using gambling sites doesn't effect your credit score unless you borrow money to fund it. I do all my match betting through a virtual bank (Monzo) in order to keep that stuff out of my main bank on the off chance that it raises any eyebrows. You'll be using Monzo like a cash card, where you can only spend the money you put into the card. This is why it won't affect your credit score, because you wouldn't be taking out an overdraft or using credit for example.
(3) What is Mug Betting?
Mug Betting is where you make bets that have no relation to any offer or promotion in order to appear like a regular punter. If you are doing a lot of offers on one site, it's a good idea to make mug bets in order to avoid being "gubbed" (Gubbed is a term for when bookies realise you are only taking advantadge of promotions and close your account permanantly). Of course you will also Match these "Mug bets" on the exchange. Make 1-2 Mug bets on Each site every week(On the sites you are using a lot for offers and promotions) in order to ensure your accounts last longer than 1-2 years. I have been matching for well over a year and have never been gubbed. Take the extra couple of minutes to Mug bet, it's worth it.
More on Mug betting here

Ok so that's everything I can think of to share with you guys, The link to sign up to your free Team Profit account is at the bottom of Part 1 of this guide.
TLDR: You do not need to "gamble" to match bet, in fact by definition, the bet you make is "matched" on the exchange, so it is not a gamble in any sense.
I really hope this guide will help someone out because It really is a solid way to sort out a months rent for quite a modest amount of work.
Thanks for Reading.
submitted by IvyRoney to beermoneyuk [link] [comments]

The difference between the type of betting odds

Official Site Football Tips From Israel
Learn how to calculate your probability to win by understanding the types of betting odds
What is the difference between the types of betting odds? If you think to start betting online. this one of the basic things that you have to learn. In that case, it is ridiculous to think that you can start betting without knowing how to calculate your odds to win. Betting odds shows you how much money you will win. In addition, it shows you the odds that it could happen.
Read this article very carefully and find the type of betting odds that suits you best. Because, in every big bookmaker’s website, you will have the ability to see the odds in the appearance that you prefer. If you will stick to your type of betting odds, it will help you understand the probability to win.
The probability
In the 2014 World Cup in Brazil, The probability that Luis Suarez will bite another player during the World Cup was 0.57%. More the 150 people decided that it is a good probability and believed that it could happen. They won!
They calculated the probability that the bookie gave them. As a result, they understood that it was worth the risk. Because of the lower the probability, the higher the winning profit.
There are three types of betting odds.
In the past bookmakers
published the odds by the locale odds type of their localization. However, in the present, most of the biggest bookmakers give you a choice to choose the way you are betting odds will appear. Now, Read carefully about the three different odds types and decide what the most comfortable way for you to understand is.
Decimal Odds
The decimal odds
came from Europe, Australia, and Canada. It is the easiest way to understand your odds and your winning probabilities. It represents you what will be the amount that you will win for every 1 Euro that you bet on.
Very important to understand that it does not represent profit. It represents the return of the money. To calculate the profit, you should subtract stake (the amount of the bet) that you already paid to place your bet.
This is the calculation for the profit:
The winning profit = (Odds * Stake) – Stake
Here are some examples of how to calculate the profit when you put 10 a Euro stake.
Off course. While, the higher the probability, the lower the profit. Now, let’s calculate the probability of the same odds.
This is the calculation for the probability:
Probability = (1/Odds) * 100
Here are some examples of how to calculate the probability that the Bookmaker thinks the result can happen
Watch the Full Video Guide on YouTube!
IN THE CLIP: Demoles explains and gives tips about how to calculate the Profit and the Probability from all three main types of betting odds
Fractional odds
The Fractional odds came from bookmakers that worked in the United Kingdom and Ireland. Including, several names like UK odds, Traditional odds and even, Aka British odds. However, in most bookmaker’s websites, you will see these odds called Fractional odds
. You will find it presented with two numbers that have a Slash between them. (8/1 for example).
If you see for an event with 8/1 odds to happen. It means, for every 1 Euro stake you will have 8 Euros in profit. in other words, you will receive 9 euros for the win. Therefore, the Stake was 10 Euros, you will win 90 Euros (10 stakes + 80 profit)
We will replace numbers to letters – A/B to understand to calculate the Profit:
The winning profit = (A/B) * Stake
Here are some examples of how to calculate the profit when you put a 10 Euro stake.
Off course. While, the higher the probability, the lower the profit. Now, let’s calculate the probability of the same odds.
We will replace numbers to letters – A/B to understand to calculate the Probability:
Probability = B / (A+B) * 100
Here are some examples of how to calculate the probability that the Bookmaker thinks the result can happen
However, as we saw in the Decimal odds. The same rule is in the Fractional odds too. The higher the probability, the profit is lower. Again, we will replace numbers to letters – A/B to understand to calculate
the profit:
American odds
The American odds, it’s easy to guess, came from bookmakers in America. It is also known as US odds or Aka Moneyline odds. The underdog in the match will have (+) sign before its odds and the favorite team will have (-) sign before its odds.
The favorite team’s odds represent (-): How big should be your stake to win 100 Euros. While the Underdog team’s odds represent (+): How big will be your profit if your stake will be 100 Euros.
+440 means that if you will risk 100 euros your profit will be 440 euros in addition to your 100 euros stake. So, Your payout will be 540 euros.
-320 means that you need to risk 320 euros to make a 100 euros profit. In addition to your 320 Euros Stake. As a result, your payout will be 420 euros.
This is the calculation for the profit in Negative Odds:
The Profit in Negative Odds = (100/Odds) * stake
Here are some examples of how to calculate the profit when you put 10 a Euro stake in Negative Odds
This is the calculation for the profit in Positive Odds:
The Probability in Positive Odds = Odds * (Stakes / 100)
Here are some examples of how to calculate the profit when you put 10 a Euro stake in Positive Odds
This is the calculation for the probability in Negative Odds:
The Probability in Negative Odds = Odds / (Odds + 100) * 100
Here are some examples of how to calculate the probability that the Bookmaker thinks the result can happen in Negative Odds
This is the calculation for the probability in PositiveOdds:
The Probability in Positive Odds = 100 / (Odds + 100) * 100
Here are some examples of how to calculate the probability that the Bookmaker thinks the result can happen in Positive Odds
Our conclusion
At the end of the day, all three different types of betting odds
: Decimal odds, Fractional odds, and American odds. Show the same probability and the same payout. They just present them in 3 different ways. We recommend you try them all, and see which Odds type suits you the best and work with it. But, no matter which odds type you choose. You always have to consider the probability and see if it worth the risk.
In our podcast, Demoles always pick his betting predictions, only after he calculated the probability to win and when it worth the risk. In view of, maximizing the winnings by the information that he collects and shares about the Football in Israel.
Does this article help you? if so, learn more about the most common types of football bets
. It will help you improve your betting skills.
https://footballtipsil.com/
submitted by FootBallTipsIL to betting [link] [comments]

The difference between the type of betting odds

Official Site Football Tips From Israel

Learn how to calculate your probability to win by understanding the types of betting odds

What is the difference between the types of betting odds? If you think to start betting online. this one of the basic things that you have to learn. In that case, it is ridiculous to think that you can start betting without knowing how to calculate your odds to win. Betting odds shows you how much money you will win. In addition, it shows you the odds that it could happen.
Read this article very carefully and find the type of betting odds that suits you best. Because, in every big bookmaker’s website, you will have the ability to see the odds in the appearance that you prefer. If you will stick to your type of betting odds, it will help you understand the probability to win.

The probability

In the 2014 World Cup in Brazil, The probability that Luis Suarez will bite another player during the World Cup was 0.57%. More the 150 people decided that it is a good probability and believed that it could happen. They won!
They calculated the probability that the bookie gave them. As a result, they understood that it was worth the risk. Because of the lower the probability, the higher the winning profit.
There are three types of betting odds.
In the past bookmakers published the odds by the locale odds type of their localization. However, in the present, most of the biggest bookmakers give you the choice to choose the way you betting odds will appear. Now, Read carefully about the three different odds types and decide what the most comfortable way for you to understand is.

Decimal Odds

The decimal odds came from Europe, Australia, and Canada. It is the easiest way to understand your odds and your winning probabilities. It represents you what will be the amount that you will win for every 1 Euro that you bet on.
Very important to understand that it does not represent profit. It represents the return of the money. To calculate the profit, you should subtract stake (the amount of the bet) that you already paid to place your bet.
This is the calculation for the profit:
The winning profit = (Odds * Stake) – Stake
Here are some examples of how to calculate the profit when you put 10 a Euro stake.
Off course. While, the higher the probability, the lower the profit. Now, let’s calculate the probability of the same odds.
This is the calculation for the probability:
Probability = (1/Odds) * 100
Here are some examples of how to calculate the probability that the Bookmaker thinks the result can happen
Watch the Full Video Guide on YouTube!
IN THE CLIP: Demoles explains and gives tips about how to calculate the Profit and the Probability from all three main types of betting odds

Fractional odds

The Fractional odds came from bookmakers that worked in the United Kingdom and Ireland. Including, several names like UK odds, Traditional odds and even, Aka British odds. However, in most bookmaker’s websites, you will see these odds called Fractional odds. You will find it presented with two numbers that have a Slash between them. (8/1 for example).
If you see for an event with 8/1 odds to happen. It means, for every 1 Euro stake you will have 8 Euros in profit. in other words, you will receive 9 euros for the win. Therefore, the Stake was 10 Euros, you will win 90 Euros (10 stakes + 80 profit)
We will replace numbers to letters – A/B to understand to calculate the Profit:
The winning profit = (A/B) * Stake
Here are some examples of how to calculate the profit when you put a 10 Euro stake.
Off course. While, the higher the probability, the lower the profit. Now, let’s calculate the probability of the same odds.
We will replace numbers to letters – A/B to understand to calculate the Probability:
Probability = B / (A+B) * 100
Here are some examples of how to calculate the probability that the Bookmaker thinks the result can happen
However, as we saw in the Decimal odds. The same rule is in the Fractional odds too. The higher the probability, the profit is lower. Again, we will replace numbers to letters – A/B to understand to calculate the profit:

American odds

The American odds, it’s easy to guess, came from bookmakers in America. It is also known as US odds or Aka Moneyline odds. The underdog in the match will have (+) sign before its odds and the favorite team will have (-) sign before its odds.
The favorite team’s odds represent (-): How big should be your stake to win 100 Euros. While the Underdog team’s odds represent (+): How big will be your profit if your stake will be 100 Euros.
+440 means that if you will risk 100 euros your profit will be 440 euros in addition to your 100 euros stake. So, Your payout will be 540 euros.
-320 means that you need to risk 320 euros to make a 100 euros profit. In addition to your 320 Euros Stake. As a result, your payout will be 420 euros.
This is the calculation for the profit in Negative Odds:
The Profit in Negative Odds = (100/Odds) * stake
Here are some examples of how to calculate the profit when you put 10 a Euro stake in Negative Odds
This is the calculation for the profit in Positive Odds:
The Probability in Positive Odds = Odds * (Stakes / 100)
Here are some examples of how to calculate the profit when you put 10 a Euro stake in Positive Odds
This is the calculation for the probability in Negative Odds:
The Probability in Negative Odds = Odds / (Odds + 100) * 100
Here are some examples of how to calculate the probability that the Bookmaker thinks the result can happen in Negative Odds
This is the calculation for the probability in PositiveOdds:
The Probability in Positive Odds = 100 / (Odds + 100) * 100
Here are some examples of how to calculate the probability that the Bookmaker thinks the result can happen in Positive Odds

Our conclusion

At the end of the day, all three different types of betting odds: Decimal odds, Fractional odds, and American odds. Show the same probability and the same payout. They just present them in 3 different ways. We recommend you try them all, and see which Odds type suits you the best and work with it. But, no matter which odds type you choose. You always have to consider the probability and see if it worth the risk.
In our podcast, Demoles always pick his betting predictions, only after he calculated the probability to win and when it worth the risk. In view of, maximizing the winnings by the information that he collects and shares about the Football in Israel.
Does this article help you? if so, learn more about the most common types of football bets. It will help you improve your betting skills.
https://footballtipsil.com/
submitted by FootBallTipsIL to u/FootBallTipsIL [link] [comments]

Anyone know how simple horse bets work?

I bet $5 today for my horse to finish 1st or 2nd at my local track but I had to leave early. Well my horse apparently won her race (figures I didn't get to see!) and the payout chart online for her race says "to place" is 3.60$. Does anybody know about how much I won? Is it as simple as $5 x 3.60 = $18 won?
submitted by wecantmakeabbq to CasualConversation [link] [comments]

BAT – A Wonderful Company at A Wonderful Price (8x PE, 15% dividend yield, 100% ROE)

 
In 1987, Buffett famously stated, "I'll tell you why I like the cigarette business. It costs a penny to make. Sell it for a dollar. It's addictive. And there's fantastic brand loyalty."
“The best business to own is one that over an extended period of time can employ large amounts of incremental capital at very high rates of return.” – Warren Buffett
“Invest at the point of maximum pessimism.” – John Templeton
 
Warren Buffett’s best winners have always been stocks which were bought during times of maximum pessimism. GEICO was bought on the brink of bankruptcy. AMEX was bought during the Salad Oil Scandal. Goldman Sachs was also bought with bankruptcy looming. Wells Fargo was a bank with a largely residential loan book bought during a housing crisis. Coca-Cola was bought at a time of massive overdiversification. And so on and so forth.
It’s not often that one has the opportunity to put into practice the all-encompassing philosophy of buy low, sell high. But even when that opportunity rears its ugly head, it’s the rare investor who has the aptitude and the stomach to back up the truck. Thankfully, these opportunities do exist, but it takes a keen eye to discern the difference between a falling knife and a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.
 
Overview
British American Tobacco (BAT) Malaysia is one such example. Currently trading at just 8x PE, sporting a 100% ROE, and giving a 15% dividend yield, it’s hard not to salivate a little at the financial statistics. But why is such a high ROI stock – a cigarette company no less – trading at such awfully low valuations?
First, some history. BAT Malaysia is the largest cigarette company in the country, with a roughly 50% legal market share and 12% total industry market share. If you’re observant, you’ll notice that Malaysia’s illegal cigarette market share takes up a whopping 65% share of the pie. This was largely due to the massive excise duty (i.e. sin tax) hike in 2015, which brought illegal market share from a reasonable 33% before the hike to 65% and rising today.
As a result, BAT Malaysia has suffered massive share price declines, with the share price falling by 85% in the past 5 years (from RM 60 in 2015) and 70% in the past 12 months alone (from RM 37 in early-2019). This was largely due to revenue declines of nearly 20% and earnings decline of 40% over the past 3 years, with a corresponding shortfall in dividends (the company has a 90% dividend policy). ROE has also fallen from approximately 200% to around 100% today.
Thus, it’s not surprising that the stock has taken such a beating. Indeed, over the past two weeks alone the stock price has fallen by about 30%. But is investing in it now simply trying to catch a falling knife?
 
Business Narrative
The source of the problem can largely be traced back to the sin tax hike in 2015, which brought illegal cigarette market share from 33% to 65% over the past 5 years. The Malaysian government has not been very accommodative to local industry players, rebuffing efforts to reduce the sin tax and dragging its feet when it comes to the enforcement of existing laws and the introduction of new ones. The local Customs department, working together with the police, has had some success in recent years tackling the illegal cigarette cartel – arresting the decline in legal market share from 20%-30% annually to just above 10% in the past year – but efforts are largely seen as too little, too late. On top of that, the illegal vaping scene has blossomed in Malaysia, with nicotine-related products claiming up to 10% of total industry market share.
This backdrop has inspired analysts to impose doomsday scenarios for the legal industry players (i.e. BAT, PMI & JTI), according present values to the companies which reflect a resumption of historical revenue and market share declines. Indeed, when parsing the financial statements of BAT, it’s not impossible to forecast revenues declining to a point where they fall below operating costs (i.e. EBITDA of zero), rendering the equity essentially worthless valuation-wise.
The main reason for the government’s lack of progress is bureaucracy. Different governmental ministries have drawn different interpretations of their legal jurisdiction regarding the matter, and thus shuffle the responsibility of arresting the illegal trade to their peers. For instance, the Ministry of Health (MOH) has stated that it has no authority to enforce legislation against illegal cigarettes, while the Customs department disagrees and says it is the MOH’s prerogative to clamp down on illegal cigarette packets which don’t portray mandatory and unsightly health warnings (illegal cigarette packets tend not to include them). As a result of the red tape, there has been little progress on the front lines, and legal industry players are lesser of for it.
BAT and JTI (the two largest cigarette players) have resorted to shutting down their manufacturing operations and implementing an importation business model, where legal cigarettes are imported from Indonesia into the country to be sold. BAT has also gone through one round of layoffs last year, with a second round expected in 2020.
 
Financials
As alluded to earlier, revenues have declined by 20% over the past 3 years while net profit has declined by 40%. This was surprisingly not due to a contraction of Gross Margin (which you’d expect as costs go up when switching from a manufacturing model to an importation model), but largely as a result of revenues falling while operating costs remain the same. This can be seen in the Operating Margin falling from a high of 24% in 17Q3 to 18% in 19Q3, and net margin contracting from 18% in 17Q3 to 13% in 19Q3.
On the balance sheet side, things look much rosier. Intangibles take up the lion’s share of assets (40%), while Inventories and Receivables have declined slightly in line with the fall in Revenue. Net cash is negative owing to a revolving credit facility which the company has drawn presumably for tax reasons. The debt is current in nature and can be paid back in full with 2 years of Free Cash Flow. The company doesn’t have much fixed assets remaining following the closure of its manufacturing plant, indicating that liquidation value (approximately zero) falls far short of market value. Current ratio is reasonable at 0.8x. Share capital has not changed for at least 3 years.
Receivable days and Inventory days have respectively increased by roughly 50% over the last 3 years – indicating a struggling business which is facing business challenges from its illegal brethren. Payable days have remained static over the same time period. As a result, Cash Conversion Cycle stands at 79 days, up by double from 33 days in 2018.
Cash flow is still stable, with cash receipts approximating revenues. Free Cash Flow is almost equal to Operating Cash Flow, exemplifying the asset-light nature of the current business. The company pays out the entirety of its FCF as dividends (and then some), leading to a dividend yield of 15% at the current share price and a 118% dividend payout ratio.
 
Risks
The risks are apparent. If the government doesn’t do something about the illegal trade and allows it to run rampant, it’s possible that illegal market share increases from here and revenues continue to decline. In the worst-case scenario, it’s not hard to envision revenues falling below operating costs and EBITDA reaching zero, implying the shares are worthless and that dividends will be cut or even stopped entirely.
The current share price of 8x PE (RM 10.00) reflects this doomsday view. The market is basically pricing in declining earnings growth into perpetuity and giving no stock to a potential turnaround. Government intervention to address the illegal trade is widely perceived as sorely lacking and possibly not existing, with analysts imputing revenue declines of up to 30% a year into their models. Share price targets range from RM 11 – RM 15, although the share price has fallen by some 20% since the last revision of analyst reports. All in all, it seems like bad news for BAT.
 
Opportunities
The opportunities for BAT, while less apparent, do exist. For one, the government could by some miracle successfully enforce existing laws and put the brakes on illegal trade – it has already slowed the latter’s advance by some 50% since the sin tax hike. Alternatively, the government could recognize the disadvantages of the narrowing tax base from legal cigarettes and decide to reverse or reduce the sin tax, leading to a reclaiming of legal market share by industry players to previous highs. By some back-of-the-envelope calculations, if legal market share rises to just half of their historical levels, BAT’s earnings and share price could double from here. PE ratios would also expand in such a scenario.
BAT’s parent company in London could also decide to acquire the Malaysian subsidiary given the depressed prices. A fair market price given the circumstances would be roughly 15x PE, which assuming earnings continue to decline by 30% from today, would put the acquisition price at around 120-130% from current share prices.
BAT has also been experimenting with nicotine-related products, such as the Heat-Not-Burn (HNB) device known as Glo (PMI has a branded competitor known as IQOS). Both have received glowing reviews from former cigarette users and is expected to help the companies transition into the post-smoking era (i.e. 20-30 years from now). So far, Glo has developed a 1% total industry market share in Malaysia despite only being launched 2 years ago, showcasing its popularity and potential success.
Finally, the government is preparing the release of new legislation regarding vaping, which is due to see light by mid-2020. While legalization is still not guaranteed, government officials have publicly admitted the difficulty of enforcing laws if a vaping ban were to be instituted. If vaping is legalized, the legal industry could see a 10% increase in market share overnight as they introduce their own products to supplement the demand for currently illegal products.
 
Risk : Reward
In my opinion, current share prices have priced in all the risks while discounting all the opportunities. Even assuming earnings decline at an average annual rate of 10% into perpetuity, it would take just ten years to reclaim your initial investment. This is assuming illegal market share continues its rise unabated and legal market share never sees the light of day again. Keep in mind that the company has a 90% dividend payout policy, and has kept this rate despite recent struggles in its business, so you’d get a return of capital regardless of the share price performance.
In this worst-case scenario, the parent company would either push for an acquisition or liquidate the Malaysian operations. An acquisition at fire-sale prices would probably yield at least 5x PE, while a liquidation would yield nothing given the current ratio of 0.8x. The latter is highly unlikely because it would mean that BAT ceases to have a presence in Malaysia completely, a growing South East Asian nation with GDP growth of 4-5% and potentially bright future. Hence, given the probabilities and an estimate of expected value, you’d already come out on top at the current PE of 8x.
What about the alternative? Before we get into the valuation from an opportunity set perspective, let us consider BAT’s business model. As Buffett says, this is a company with unit economics of a penny per cigarette, selling them at a dollar per cigarette, fantastic brand loyalty and a captive audience. Imagine if you could have owned Altria in the USA in the 1970’s. Today, you’d own Altria, Kraft Heinz, PMI and a smattering of profitable businesses around the world. While I don’t mean to draw a direct comparison between BAT Malaysia today and Altria USA of the 70’s, it’s not hard to imagine a similarly wonderful future for a company with such an attractive business model.
As far as economic moats are concerned, the cigarette business is probably one of the few businesses you can say will be around in another 20-30 years. Sure, they’re facing headwinds in the form of a burgeoning illegal cigarette trade today, but who says they will still be facing the same demons 10 years from now, or even 5 years? If there’s one thing for certain, it’s that the business environment is fluid – and chances are good that things won’t remain the same as today, whatever they may be.
 
A Reasonable Bull-Case Scenario Valuation
Let’s put the humdrums aside for a moment and imagine a brighter future for BAT. What would this future look like? For one, it’s possible that within the next 5 years the government realizes it can’t contain the illegal cigarette problem and decide to reduce the sin tax to previous levels. The wider tax base resulting from such a move would result in the same absolute amount in taxes even at lower tax rates – so there is no financial disincentive not to do so – while at the same time reducing the illegal market share. If legal market share even reclaims half of their former levels, the share price of BAT could double from today.
Furthermore, what’s stopping BAT from resuming earnings growth, assuming the business environment recovers? Even if earnings grow by just equal to GDP growth (i.e. 4-5% a year), it would justify a 15x PE at the minimum considering a long-time horizon of 20-30 years. Combine a doubling of earnings with a 15x PE, and you’re looking at a potential quadrupling (4x) of the current share price.
 
A Best-Case Scenario Valuation
If BAT reclaims its former glory and returns to its historical market capitalization of RM 18 billion, we’re talking about a 600% increase in share price.
That’s just for the next ten years. What about dividends beyond that? Let’s imagine the best possible scenario for BAT. Assume for awhile that you’re planning to hold BAT for the next 30 years. Assume also that in ten years’ time, BAT’s share price skyrockets to 600% of current levels, and then grows earnings by 4% a year into perpetuity and pays out 90% of earnings at dividends. Account for 3% inflation and zero percent cost of capital (i.e. growth funded from retained earnings). By the end of year 30, you’d end up with 27x your initial investment, or 2700% of your capital. That’s a 12% CAGR.
In other words, a $40,000 investment in BAT today could potentially yield a million dollars in 30 year’s time. And that’s with reasonable assumptions. Tweak the numbers further and you’ll could potentially reach Buffett-like returns.
 
Conclusion
To sum things up, it appears that current share prices already impute the worst-case scenario, while the best-case scenario is a 600% capital appreciation potential in ten years, or 2700% over 30 years. Giving a margin of safety, let’s dial the ten-year return of 600% down by 50% - we still get a 300% reward scenario. That’s a 12% CAGR over ten years. Not too shabby.
Assuming 50% downside from today’s prices, the upside-to-downside ratio at 300% upside would still be a healthy 1:6. Now that’s a margin of safety.
If you believe that BAT has no future in Malaysia and will ultimately be acquired or liquidated, expect share prices to fall by up to 50% from here. If you expect that the legal industry will recover to former highs and that BAT is well-positioned as the largest cigarette player in an ASEAN country with 4% GDP growth (alongside Vietnam, Singapore, and Indonesia), you can expect share prices to rise by at least 300% over the next 10 years.
More realistically, share prices will fluctuate by 20% from current levels both to the upside and downside over the next year or so. If you can stomach that kind of volatility, BAT makes for a wonderful risk-reward component of your hopefully diversified emerging market portfolio.
 
A Value Investor’s Perspective
As mentioned above, Warren Buffett has a history of buying companies for pennies on the dollar when the share price reflects maximum pessimism. This does not mean to dive blindly into freefalling stocks which you do not understand. It does mean that you should do your homework, and when you spot an attractive risk:reward ratio in stocks where others are running for the exits, you should be comfortable holding a large position.
Buying a leading cigarette company in its market while it’s beaten down represents one of the most potentially profitable investments imaginable. For reference, take a look at Altria. If you had bought $1,000 worth of shares in Altria in 1970, and reinvested all the dividends, you would be sitting on a fortune worth $5 million by today. That’s an astounding 18% CAGR over an extraordinarily long period of 50 years. Can BAT Malaysia repeat this tier of performance? Probably not, but you don’t need to in order to make a satisfying profit from it.
Buffett espouses thinking long-term when it comes to investing. Think about the long-term when it comes to BAT Malaysia. Is it likely that illegal cigarette’s share of the market will remain elevated at 65% or above for the next 20 years continually? If I was a betting man, I’d wager that it won’t. More likely than not, some kind of unforeseen development will unfold which will bring market share back into the folds of the legal industry – it could be vaping, HNB products, a newly yet unrevealed form of nicotine-device, or even an evolution in the way smokers think. What can be relied on however is that in 20 years smokers will still continue to view nicotine, and by extension smoking-related products, as a form of entertainment and relaxation.
Then there’s the dividends. The dividend yield on one share of Altria bought in the 1990’s held until today would exceed 30%. This is because the dividends have grown over the years in tandem with earnings growth. Extrapolate that to BAT Malaysia, which currently has a dividend yield of 15%. Assuming an average of 4% earnings growth going forward, that dividend yield would grow to just about 45% in 30 years. That’s the power of compounding.
Buffett also champions the idea of owning companies with fortress economic moats. Some of the companies which he owns have such moats, including Coca-Cola, Wells Fargo, GEICO, American Express, etc. It’s hard to argue that BAT Malaysia doesn’t have such a moat. Even in such trying times where revenues have contracted by 20%, it still sports a high-flying ROE of 100%, and stable gross margins of 30%. I would go so far as to compare BAT Malaysia today to a Coca-Cola or American Express when Buffett bought them during times of pessimism.
Think about the future of BAT in 10 years, or 20 years’ time. It’s likely that it will have overcome the temporary hurdles which it faces today by then and resume earning high returns on significant capital invested over a long period of time. This is truly a compounding machine if there ever was one. Or as the title suggests, a wonderful company trading at a wonderful price.
Remember that Buffett’s best buys in the public markets have all been investments made during trying times, such as what BAT is facing today. AMEX could have gone bankrupt over the Salad Oil Scandal. GEICO was literally months away from being unable to service its insurance liabilities. Goldman Sachs was teetering on the brink of financial collapse under the heavy weight of subprime mortgage obligations. Coca-Cola was not the company it is today – it was an overburdened, overdiversified conglomerate with little growth outlook. Wells Fargo was staring at a huge, unserviceable loan book immediately following the Californian earthquakes given its significant residential exposure. It’s definitely nice to pay fair prices for wonderful companies, but it’s even better to be able to pay wonderful prices for wonderful companies.
 
In times like these, it pays to reflect on some words of wisdom for guidance:
Buy when there’s blood in the streets.
Be greedy when others are fearful.
In the short-term, the market is a voting machine; in the long-term, it is a weighing machine.
Price is what you pay, value is what you get.
It is far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price, than a fair company at a wonderful price.
Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble.
 
May the investing odds be ever in your favor!
 
Stock code: 4162.KL Stock name: British American Tobacco (Malaysia) Berhad Financial information and financial reports: https://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?securityCode=4162
submitted by investorinvestor to SecurityAnalysis [link] [comments]

Skybet offer for £30 Free bets combined with Betfair £20 Refund

This is something I did last weekend and saw £45 profit.
Before you read on, Yes this is Matched Betting.
I don't condone Gambling, this is actually why I like match betting, it takes money away from the Bookies.
Anyway, Here is an easy example just to show that it's not overly complicated.

Skybet are offering a £30 free bet when you bet £5
So you sign up here, make a £5 bet on any sports game with odds of 2.0 or more, it has to be at odds of 2.0 or greater or you won't qualify
Ok so now for the matching part.
You need to make the same (or matched) bet on a seperate site called the exchange. This is a site where you are basically being the bookie, and like a bookie you have liability. This is because as a bookie, if the person who bets on your site wins, you are liable to pay out. The bet you make here is called the "Lay bet". So if you bet for Real Sociedad to win on Sky bet, then you lay, i.e bet for them not to win on the Betfair exchange. In this way you won't make a loss no matter what and you will qualify for the £30 in free bets. NB: On the exchange, the odds displayed in pink are the lay odds, these are the odds you will bet on.
Sign up the Betfair Exchange: Referral. You get a £20 free bet for using this referral link. This means that before you do anything with the Skybet offer, you should make a £20 bet on the exchange just because it's a risk free bet. If you lose, you get your £20 back. If you win, you obviously get the £20 back plus however much extra for the odds you bet on, e.g £20 at odds of 3.0 = £60 return. Non Referral here. Yes you could ignore the Skybet offer and just get this £20 free bet by itself.
Ok now back to the Skybet offer,
You will need to find something that has really close odds in both the exchange and the bookies. The best thing to do is go onto the sports pages on both the bookies and the exchange and look for a close match. Football matches are the easiest and most reliable. You can also use this bot to help you find a good match, the site looks a little clunky but it's actually very useful.
Ok so you found a match for two games with close odds of 2.0 or more, you know you need to bet £5 on the Skybet site, but you need to calculate how much liability you need for your bet on the same game on the exchange too. Use this calculator to work it out. Make your bet on the exchange. Remember that it's the odds in pink on the exchange which you will be betting on
You will shortly be credited your £30 free bets. You will do the same thing again but this time make sure that when you use the calculator that it's set to the Free Bet option.
You will bet at higher odds with the free bets so you can maximise profit, but you will also need more liability. I bet at odds of 6 with liability of about £125. I made a profit of £25.
The way you make this profit is because if you lose on Skybet with your free bet of £30, it's not actually a loss at all because it isn't real money, and if you lose in Skybet that means you've won in the exchange, so you'll get the profit from your lay bet there. On the flip side, if you win on Sky bet at odds of 6.0 for example, you will make a profit of around £25 too because the payout from the winning bet (£150) is less than the money you put down for your liability bet on the exchange (£125)
All together I made a profit of £45 (£25 from Skybet offer and £20 from the £20 risk free bet where my bet won). It took me about 30 minutes to do it.
If you are still unsure, you could take a look at This Guide on match betting, I found it really helpful and it has a lot of info in the comments too.
Any questions feel free to send a pm.
Cheers
submitted by petereatwinter to beermoneyuk [link] [comments]

Value of a Half Point and Getting the Best Number

Value of a Half Point and Getting the Best Number
It's crazy to think we've already watched 8 weeks of NCAAF and 7 weeks of the NFL season, so this may seem late, but I’d like to offer you a refresher on conditional probabilities and how they can be used in betting football.
At its core, sports betting is about estimating the probability of an event occurring. To find value, you then compare your estimate with the implied probability of the payout that is offered from a sportsbook. For example, if you estimate the probability of Notre Dame covering the spread against Michigan to be 55.0%, it’s probably worth a bet if you can get -110 odds on Notre Dame (52.4% breakeven probability).
Conditional Probabilities
However, what is often oversimplified is the fact that your estimate is actually a conditional probability. Your estimate of 55.0% probability of Notre Dame covering is conditional on the fact that 1) the teams that are playing are Notre Dame and Michigan (duh), 2) that Notre Dame is a 3.5-point underdog, and 3) whatever else is an input into your model. If Notre Dame were a 1.0-point underdog instead, which is where the current spread is, your probability would be different. This is what makes totals and spreads incrementally harder to model than money lines. Betting a money line, you only need to consider the odds (set by a sportsbook) and the probability of the team winning. Betting the spread, however, requires you to account for the odds and the probability of a team covering the spread, both of which (the odds and the spread) are set by the sportsbook.
To complicate things further, in football, scoring is usually done in increments of 3 and 7. This causes football scores to fall on certain stores much more frequently than others, resulting in a unique distribution of the margin of victory. You likely have heard of the phrase “key numbers” (such as 3, 7, 10, 14 and 21) which are the most frequent margins of victory in NCAA football, accounting for almost 30% of outcomes over the last five seasons. Below, we’ve displayed the frequency of occurrence of the 10 most frequent outcomes in NCAA football, representing almost half of games played.
https://imgur.com/a/f7mbksF
The frequency of a game ending in a 21-point margin is historically around 4 percent, but Team A could be on the winning or losing side of that game. So with this data, we should be able to conclude that the likelihood of a Team A winning by 21 points is approximately 2 percent, right? Not quite.
For example, Oklahoma is playing Kansas State on Saturday. Oklahoma, as the favorite, has a much higher likelihood of winning the game by 21 points than Kansas State.
So let’s look at the frequency of winning by 21, conditional on being the favorite. Of the 4,157 games played over the last five seasons, 32 games were a pick-em, leaving 4,125 instances where there was a favorite and an underdog. There were also 165 instances of a game ending in a 21-point victory, of which 132 of them were won by the favorite. Therefore, conditional on being a favorite, the frequency of winning by 21 points has been 3.2% (132/4125) over the past five years.
Unfortunately, this is not enough to say that a team that is favored by 21 points has a 3.2% probability of pushing. Not all favorites are the same, as some are small favorites and some are large favorites. What we’d like to do is isolate the games that feature a 21-point favorite, or thereabouts.
Over the last five seasons, there have been 219 games featuring a favorite between 20 and 22 points. (Note: we used 20-22 rather than 21 for the sake of increasing our sample size, and therefore our confidence in these insights.) In those 219 games, the favorite won by exactly 21 points on 15 occasions, or 6.8% of the time. While we don’t know with certainty that this represents the true probability of pushing a bet as a 21-point favorite (as there are many other factors in a game), we are much more comfortable with this figure than any of the figures calculated above.
Value of a Half Point
Let’s assume that you want to bet Cal v Utah on Saturday and some books have Cal +21 at -110 while others have Cal +21.5 at -125. Which is the better bet?
Using our push percentage of 6.8%, this turns into a simple arithmetic problem to determine the sportsbooks’ hold. By taking the sum-product of each outcome and the respective payout, we can determine the expected return and expected hold. As you can see below, it is more advantageous for us to lay -125 to get that extra half point to avoid the push.
https://imgur.com/a/YpSCGDQ
Getting the Best Number
Of course, none of this matters unless you have the option to bet both of those lines. This is one of the fundamental reasons why I’ve previously advocated having accounts at multiple sportsbooks.
Hopefully this provides some insight into how to choose lines! As always, please leave feedback in the comments below!
submitted by cleatstreet to sportsbook [link] [comments]

BAT – A Wonderful Company at A Wonderful Price (8x PE, 15% dividend yield, 100% ROE)

 
In 1987, Buffett famously stated, "I'll tell you why I like the cigarette business. It costs a penny to make. Sell it for a dollar. It's addictive. And there's fantastic brand loyalty."
“The best business to own is one that over an extended period of time can employ large amounts of incremental capital at very high rates of return.” – Warren Buffett
“Invest at the point of maximum pessimism.” – John Templeton
 
Warren Buffett’s best winners have always been stocks which were bought during times of maximum pessimism. GEICO was bought on the brink of bankruptcy. AMEX was bought during the Salad Oil Scandal. Goldman Sachs was also bought with bankruptcy looming. Wells Fargo was a bank with a largely residential loan book bought during a housing crisis. Coca-Cola was bought at a time of massive overdiversification. And so on and so forth.
It’s not often that one has the opportunity to put into practice the all-encompassing philosophy of buy low, sell high. But even when that opportunity rears its ugly head, it’s the rare investor who has the aptitude and the stomach to back up the truck. Thankfully, these opportunities do exist, but it takes a keen eye to discern the difference between a falling knife and a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.
 
Overview
British American Tobacco (BAT) Malaysia is one such example. Currently trading at just 8x PE, sporting a 100% ROE, and giving a 15% dividend yield, it’s hard not to salivate a little at the financial statistics. But why is such a high ROI stock – a cigarette company no less – trading at such awfully low valuations?
First, some history. BAT Malaysia is the largest cigarette company in the country, with a roughly 50% legal market share and 12% total industry market share. If you’re observant, you’ll notice that Malaysia’s illegal cigarette market share takes up a whopping 65% share of the pie. This was largely due to the massive excise duty (i.e. sin tax) hike in 2015, which brought illegal market share from a reasonable 33% before the hike to 65% and rising today.
As a result, BAT Malaysia has suffered massive share price declines, with the share price falling by 85% in the past 5 years (from RM 60 in 2015) and 70% in the past 12 months alone (from RM 37 in early-2019). This was largely due to revenue declines of nearly 20% and earnings decline of 40% over the past 3 years, with a corresponding shortfall in dividends (the company has a 90% dividend policy). ROE has also fallen from approximately 200% to around 100% today.
Thus, it’s not surprising that the stock has taken such a beating. Indeed, over the past two weeks alone the stock price has fallen by about 30%. But is investing in it now simply trying to catch a falling knife?
 
Business Narrative
The source of the problem can largely be traced back to the sin tax hike in 2015, which brought illegal cigarette market share from 33% to 65% over the past 5 years. The Malaysian government has not been very accommodative to local industry players, rebuffing efforts to reduce the sin tax and dragging its feet when it comes to the enforcement of existing laws and the introduction of new ones. The local Customs department, working together with the police, has had some success in recent years tackling the illegal cigarette cartel – arresting the decline in legal market share from 20%-30% annually to just above 10% in the past year – but efforts are largely seen as too little, too late. On top of that, the illegal vaping scene has blossomed in Malaysia, with nicotine-related products claiming up to 10% of total industry market share.
This backdrop has inspired analysts to impose doomsday scenarios for the legal industry players (i.e. BAT, PMI & JTI), according present values to the companies which reflect a resumption of historical revenue and market share declines. Indeed, when parsing the financial statements of BAT, it’s not impossible to forecast revenues declining to a point where they fall below operating costs (i.e. EBITDA of zero), rendering the equity essentially worthless valuation-wise.
The main reason for the government’s lack of progress is bureaucracy. Different governmental ministries have drawn different interpretations of their legal jurisdiction regarding the matter, and thus shuffle the responsibility of arresting the illegal trade to their peers. For instance, the Ministry of Health (MOH) has stated that it has no authority to enforce legislation against illegal cigarettes, while the Customs department disagrees and says it is the MOH’s prerogative to clamp down on illegal cigarette packets which don’t portray mandatory and unsightly health warnings (illegal cigarette packets tend not to include them). As a result of the red tape, there has been little progress on the front lines, and legal industry players are lesser of for it.
BAT and JTI (the two largest cigarette players) have resorted to shutting down their manufacturing operations and implementing an importation business model, where legal cigarettes are imported from Indonesia into the country to be sold. BAT has also gone through one round of layoffs last year, with a second round expected in 2020.
 
Financials
As alluded to earlier, revenues have declined by 20% over the past 3 years while net profit has declined by 40%. This was surprisingly not due to a contraction of Gross Margin (which you’d expect as costs go up when switching from a manufacturing model to an importation model), but largely as a result of revenues falling while operating costs remain the same. This can be seen in the Operating Margin falling from a high of 24% in 17Q3 to 18% in 19Q3, and net margin contracting from 18% in 17Q3 to 13% in 19Q3.
On the balance sheet side, things look much rosier. Intangibles take up the lion’s share of assets (40%), while Inventories and Receivables have declined slightly in line with the fall in Revenue. Net cash is negative owing to a revolving credit facility which the company has drawn presumably for tax reasons. The debt is current in nature and can be paid back in full with 2 years of Free Cash Flow. The company doesn’t have much fixed assets remaining following the closure of its manufacturing plant, indicating that liquidation value (approximately zero) falls far short of market value. Current ratio is reasonable at 0.8x. Share capital has not changed for at least 3 years.
Receivable days and Inventory days have respectively increased by roughly 50% over the last 3 years – indicating a struggling business which is facing business challenges from its illegal brethren. Payable days have remained static over the same time period. As a result, Cash Conversion Cycle stands at 79 days, up by double from 33 days in 2018.
Cash flow is still stable, with cash receipts approximating revenues. Free Cash Flow is almost equal to Operating Cash Flow, exemplifying the asset-light nature of the current business. The company pays out the entirety of its FCF as dividends (and then some), leading to a dividend yield of 15% at the current share price and a 118% dividend payout ratio.
 
Risks
The risks are apparent. If the government doesn’t do something about the illegal trade and allows it to run rampant, it’s possible that illegal market share increases from here and revenues continue to decline. In the worst-case scenario, it’s not hard to envision revenues falling below operating costs and EBITDA reaching zero, implying the shares are worthless and that dividends will be cut or even stopped entirely.
The current share price of 8x PE (RM 10.00) reflects this doomsday view. The market is basically pricing in declining earnings growth into perpetuity and giving no stock to a potential turnaround. Government intervention to address the illegal trade is widely perceived as sorely lacking and possibly not existing, with analysts imputing revenue declines of up to 30% a year into their models. Share price targets range from RM 11 – RM 15, although the share price has fallen by some 20% since the last revision of analyst reports. All in all, it seems like bad news for BAT.
 
Opportunities
The opportunities for BAT, while less apparent, do exist. For one, the government could by some miracle successfully enforce existing laws and put the brakes on illegal trade – it has already slowed the latter’s advance by some 50% since the sin tax hike. Alternatively, the government could recognize the disadvantages of the narrowing tax base from legal cigarettes and decide to reverse or reduce the sin tax, leading to a reclaiming of legal market share by industry players to previous highs. By some back-of-the-envelope calculations, if legal market share rises to just half of their historical levels, BAT’s earnings and share price could double from here. PE ratios would also expand in such a scenario.
BAT’s parent company in London could also decide to acquire the Malaysian subsidiary given the depressed prices. A fair market price given the circumstances would be roughly 15x PE, which assuming earnings continue to decline by 30% from today, would put the acquisition price at around 120-130% from current share prices.
BAT has also been experimenting with nicotine-related products, such as the Heat-Not-Burn (HNB) device known as Glo (PMI has a branded competitor known as IQOS). Both have received glowing reviews from former cigarette users and is expected to help the companies transition into the post-smoking era (i.e. 20-30 years from now). So far, Glo has developed a 1% total industry market share in Malaysia despite only being launched 2 years ago, showcasing its popularity and potential success.
Finally, the government is preparing the release of new legislation regarding vaping, which is due to see light by mid-2020. While legalization is still not guaranteed, government officials have publicly admitted the difficulty of enforcing laws if a vaping ban were to be instituted. If vaping is legalized, the legal industry could see a 10% increase in market share overnight as they introduce their own products to supplement the demand for currently illegal products.
 
Risk : Reward
In my opinion, current share prices have priced in all the risks while discounting all the opportunities. Even assuming earnings decline at an average annual rate of 10% into perpetuity, it would take just ten years to reclaim your initial investment. This is assuming illegal market share continues its rise unabated and legal market share never sees the light of day again. Keep in mind that the company has a 90% dividend payout policy, and has kept this rate despite recent struggles in its business, so you’d get a return of capital regardless of the share price performance.
In this worst-case scenario, the parent company would either push for an acquisition or liquidate the Malaysian operations. An acquisition at fire-sale prices would probably yield at least 5x PE, while a liquidation would yield nothing given the current ratio of 0.8x. The latter is highly unlikely because it would mean that BAT ceases to have a presence in Malaysia completely, a growing South East Asian nation with GDP growth of 4-5% and potentially bright future. Hence, given the probabilities and an estimate of expected value, you’d already come out on top at the current PE of 8x.
What about the alternative? Before we get into the valuation from an opportunity set perspective, let us consider BAT’s business model. As Buffett says, this is a company with unit economics of a penny per cigarette, selling them at a dollar per cigarette, fantastic brand loyalty and a captive audience. Imagine if you could have owned Altria in the USA in the 1970’s. Today, you’d own Altria, Kraft Heinz, PMI and a smattering of profitable businesses around the world. While I don’t mean to draw a direct comparison between BAT Malaysia today and Altria USA of the 70’s, it’s not hard to imagine a similarly wonderful future for a company with such an attractive business model.
As far as economic moats are concerned, the cigarette business is probably one of the few businesses you can say will be around in another 20-30 years. Sure, they’re facing headwinds in the form of a burgeoning illegal cigarette trade today, but who says they will still be facing the same demons 10 years from now, or even 5 years? If there’s one thing for certain, it’s that the business environment is fluid – and chances are good that things won’t remain the same as today, whatever they may be.
 
A Reasonable Bull-Case Scenario Valuation
Let’s put the humdrums aside for a moment and imagine a brighter future for BAT. What would this future look like? For one, it’s possible that within the next 5 years the government realizes it can’t contain the illegal cigarette problem and decide to reduce the sin tax to previous levels. The wider tax base resulting from such a move would result in the same absolute amount in taxes even at lower tax rates – so there is no financial disincentive not to do so – while at the same time reducing the illegal market share. If legal market share even reclaims half of their former levels, the share price of BAT could double from today.
Furthermore, what’s stopping BAT from resuming earnings growth, assuming the business environment recovers? Even if earnings grow by just equal to GDP growth (i.e. 4-5% a year), it would justify a 15x PE at the minimum considering a long-time horizon of 20-30 years. Combine a doubling of earnings with a 15x PE, and you’re looking at a potential quadrupling (4x) of the current share price.
 
A Best-Case Scenario Valuation
If BAT reclaims its former glory and returns to its historical market capitalization of RM 18 billion, we’re talking about a 600% increase in share price.
That’s just for the next ten years. What about dividends beyond that? Let’s imagine the best possible scenario for BAT. Assume for awhile that you’re planning to hold BAT for the next 30 years. Assume also that in ten years’ time, BAT’s share price skyrockets to 600% of current levels, and then grows earnings by 4% a year into perpetuity and pays out 90% of earnings at dividends. Account for 3% inflation and zero percent cost of capital (i.e. growth funded from retained earnings). By the end of year 30, you’d end up with 27x your initial investment, or 2700% of your capital. That’s a 12% CAGR.
In other words, a $40,000 investment in BAT today could potentially yield a million dollars in 30 year’s time. And that’s with reasonable assumptions. Tweak the numbers further and you’ll could potentially reach Buffett-like returns.
 
Conclusion
To sum things up, it appears that current share prices already impute the worst-case scenario, while the best-case scenario is a 600% capital appreciation potential in ten years, or 2700% over 30 years. Giving a margin of safety, let’s dial the ten-year return of 600% down by 50% - we still get a 300% reward scenario. That’s a 12% CAGR over ten years. Not too shabby.
Assuming 50% downside from today’s prices, the upside-to-downside ratio at 300% upside would still be a healthy 1:6. Now that’s a margin of safety.
If you believe that BAT has no future in Malaysia and will ultimately be acquired or liquidated, expect share prices to fall by up to 50% from here. If you expect that the legal industry will recover to former highs and that BAT is well-positioned as the largest cigarette player in an ASEAN country with 4% GDP growth (alongside Vietnam, Singapore, and Indonesia), you can expect share prices to rise by at least 300% over the next 10 years.
More realistically, share prices will fluctuate by 20% from current levels both to the upside and downside over the next year or so. If you can stomach that kind of volatility, BAT makes for a wonderful risk-reward component of your hopefully diversified emerging market portfolio.
 
A Value Investor’s Perspective
As mentioned above, Warren Buffett has a history of buying companies for pennies on the dollar when the share price reflects maximum pessimism. This does not mean to dive blindly into freefalling stocks which you do not understand. It does mean that you should do your homework, and when you spot an attractive risk:reward ratio in stocks where others are running for the exits, you should be comfortable holding a large position.
Buying a leading cigarette company in its market while it’s beaten down represents one of the most potentially profitable investments imaginable. For reference, take a look at Altria. If you had bought $1,000 worth of shares in Altria in 1970, and reinvested all the dividends, you would be sitting on a fortune worth $5 million by today. That’s an astounding 18% CAGR over an extraordinarily long period of 50 years. Can BAT Malaysia repeat this tier of performance? Probably not, but you don’t need to in order to make a satisfying profit from it.
Buffett espouses thinking long-term when it comes to investing. Think about the long-term when it comes to BAT Malaysia. Is it likely that illegal cigarette’s share of the market will remain elevated at 65% or above for the next 20 years continually? If I was a betting man, I’d wager that it won’t. More likely than not, some kind of unforeseen development will unfold which will bring market share back into the folds of the legal industry – it could be vaping, HNB products, a newly yet unrevealed form of nicotine-device, or even an evolution in the way smokers think. What can be relied on however is that in 20 years smokers will still continue to view nicotine, and by extension smoking-related products, as a form of entertainment and relaxation.
Then there’s the dividends. The dividend yield on one share of Altria bought in the 1990’s held until today would exceed 30%. This is because the dividends have grown over the years in tandem with earnings growth. Extrapolate that to BAT Malaysia, which currently has a dividend yield of 15%. Assuming an average of 4% earnings growth going forward, that dividend yield would grow to just about 45% in 30 years. That’s the power of compounding.
Buffett also champions the idea of owning companies with fortress economic moats. Some of the companies which he owns have such moats, including Coca-Cola, Wells Fargo, GEICO, American Express, etc. It’s hard to argue that BAT Malaysia doesn’t have such a moat. Even in such trying times where revenues have contracted by 20%, it still sports a high-flying ROE of 100%, and stable gross margins of 30%. I would go so far as to compare BAT Malaysia today to a Coca-Cola or American Express when Buffett bought them during times of pessimism.
Think about the future of BAT in 10 years, or 20 years’ time. It’s likely that it will have overcome the temporary hurdles which it faces today by then and resume earning high returns on significant capital invested over a long period of time. This is truly a compounding machine if there ever was one. Or as the title suggests, a wonderful company trading at a wonderful price.
Remember that Buffett’s best buys in the public markets have all been investments made during trying times, such as what BAT is facing today. AMEX could have gone bankrupt over the Salad Oil Scandal. GEICO was literally months away from being unable to service its insurance liabilities. Goldman Sachs was teetering on the brink of financial collapse under the heavy weight of subprime mortgage obligations. Coca-Cola was not the company it is today – it was an overburdened, overdiversified conglomerate with little growth outlook. Wells Fargo was staring at a huge, unserviceable loan book immediately following the Californian earthquakes given its significant residential exposure. It’s definitely nice to pay fair prices for wonderful companies, but it’s even better to be able to pay wonderful prices for wonderful companies.
 
In times like these, it pays to reflect on some words of wisdom for guidance:
Buy when there’s blood in the streets.
Be greedy when others are fearful.
In the short-term, the market is a voting machine; in the long-term, it is a weighing machine.
Price is what you pay, value is what you get.
It is far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price, than a fair company at a wonderful price.
Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble.
 
May the investing odds be ever in your favor!
 
Stock code: 4162.KL Stock name: British American Tobacco (Malaysia) Berhad Financial information and financial reports: https://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?securityCode=4162
submitted by investorinvestor to ValueInvesting [link] [comments]

michigan lottery results post; Is Taking Your Chance With the Lottery a Worthy Investment?

If you actually contemplate it, there are certainly a remarkable number of life's situations which are inherently risky. Nearly everything a person does is some form of gambling. Despite such mundane act of waking up and likely to work, increases one's chances to be killed in a transportation accident. In face of today and everything you understand about investing, be it in operation, an asset class (stocks, bonds, real estate, cash and commodities), or index fund, even yet in its most basic element, it is nothing more than "betting" that someday tomorrow is going to be better with pleasant expected returns on investment; or even not michigan lottery results post . There is only one big risk you ought to avoid and that's the risk of doing nothing and not taking your chance.
Come to consider it in face value, purchasing hardly any money market in fact is, legalized gambling, per se. You can look at investing when it comes to chart formation, or you place your money in the utilities anticipating when they are "due", you money in or again maybe not; or you select to possess any one of many countless analysts culling spreadsheets or fund index investors work on the fundamentals of investing for you personally in manufacturing, real estate, cash and commodities-no matter what your reasoning for that, if that's not gambling, then what is? Basically, you're betting that in 5, 10 or 15 years from there could be more people, buying more stuff, utilizing more energy, dependent on more gadgets-with hope that you can money in; or even not. You are basically "betting" on every one of it.
So it's, with the lottery-a type of gambling with origins in Florence, Italy, where the first lottery was held in the 16th Century, then called the Lotto de Firenze, and quickly adopted by other Italian cities. It became a national lottery, and still known today as the Lotto in Italy, as also adopted and called in a number of other countries, including the United States. The lottery, as a questionnaire of government-licensed gambling, involves drawing of lots for a variety of winnings and for the massive jackpot prize. Gambling, like poker, blackjack, roulette, sports betting and racing, can involve skill or just chance alone; however the lottery doesn't require any special skills-set to play.
Just like any risk, there's always something at stake. Even if you determine to take the risk of starting a company, you stand to reduce money, time and your reputation. The exact same things you stand to achieve once you take the chance to start your own personal business. The lots you purchase to play the lottery are today in the form of tickets and the prize is usually a sizable sum of cash. The draws are random and every player has the same potential for winning the major prize which regularly grows really big with massive roll over jackpots.
Gunning for the Biggest Jackpot Games
National, regional and local laws govern the lottery, so regulations differ widely among countries or even within them, such as the US. In the US, Powerball prizes have increased sharply due to the cost per ticket doubling to $2, and California, the nation's most populous state, joining 42 other states, Washington D.C. and the U.S. Virgin Islands, in playing the game. The Powerball combines a sizable jackpot game and an income game drawn twice a week, every Wednesday and Saturday. For an additional dollar, you can add the PowerPlay option which increases how big your prize in the event that you win. The Mega Millions tickets cost $1 per play, with the MegaPlier option that costs an additional $1 with that you simply raise your non-jackpot prize winnings by 2, 3, 4, or 5 times; drawn every Tuesday and Friday..
You have other world richest lottery games with that you simply get the chance to take your chance through secure online outlets like WinTrillions, Florida Lotto Magic, and Euro Millions Oracle. You can get your tickets from these online outlets to play lottery games, like:
Generally, life is approximately taking chances. Everything you do in life is approximately taking that leap of faith with the target to attract abundance. Anything in life that is worth having, takes time. Nothing in life is truly guaranteed. You just have to find a balance. You will find that balance with the lottery games with calculated risk, for example, you place up a budget of how much you can afford on tickets weekly and strictly work with that budget as you remain patient, positive, and hopeful that someday tomorrow you may be the next jackpot winner. You need to be consistent with your allowance plan. Even when you are on a roll, reinvest only the set amount of your budget. Put aside profits from your own small wins you are able to reinvest in future plays. This idea is utilized by players in the stock markets and other money markets and is really a simple one. Let your profits do the job to cut your losses when you pursue the best goal-the jackpot prize.
submitted by noor-khan67 to u/noor-khan67 [link] [comments]

Celebrating the Rugby World Cup (New User Discount)

Whether you are in to Rugby or not, the 2019 Rugby World Cup represents a great opportunity to make some money without ever risking your own funds.
This is all thanks to matched betting, which is still the best way to supplement your monthly income online.
If you are new to matched betting, then you can check out this comprehensive article from Money Magpie:
https://www.moneymagpie.com/make-money/beginners-guide-to-matched-betting

As for why now is the best time to get into matched betting, well that is simple. Big events like the Rugby World Cup bring enhanced welcome offers (which is where the majority of your profit comes from), great odds boosts and lucrative reload offers (offers for existing customers). All of which noticeably increases the profitability of matched betting - when compared to starting during a time with no big sporting events.
If you have already completed all the bookmaker welcome offers and know what matched betting is about, then there is still a good reason for you to return for this big event. That reason is Bet365 and Betway's early payout offers. With these bookmakers offering instant payouts on your team going 15 points and 14 points ahead respectively, there is a huge amount of profit to be made from just these two bookmakers alone. Guide for this type of offer linked below:
https://headsandheads.co.uk/training/n71xJQ/2up--14up-offers

Now, regardless as to whether you are a beginner or experienced, Heads&Heads has the best offer around when it comes to your first month of our Premium Matched Betting service.

£1 for 30 days Premium
The expiry date for this offer is currently set for the end of September.
Use code - RUGBY1
Click this link to head to the discount payment page: https://headsandheads.co.uk/sign-up?discount=RUGBY1

For your £1, you will get 30 days access to the following:
Personalised Dashboard (to track your progress)
Oddsmatching Software
All matched betting calculators
Complete forum access
Comprehensive written and video guides.
Live Chat Support

As always, if you have already got what you wanted from Matched Betting and have no interest in getting back into it, please do not disparage individuals from trying it out.
submitted by HeadsandHeads to beermoneyuk [link] [comments]

Celebrating England in the Rugby World Cup (Discount Extended!)

Whether you are interested in the Rugby World Cup or not, we all want to make money - and this post will help you do just that!
Full disclosure first - we ran this discount for our service in September (and posted on this community), but seeing as England are actually doing quite well, we thought we'd bring it back to celebrate them getting through to the knock out stages.
So, how will this post help you make money exactly?
Well, it is all thanks to matched betting - which is still the best way to supplement your monthly income online.
If you are new to matched betting, then you can check out this comprehensive article from Money Magpie:

https://www.moneymagpie.com/make-money/beginners-guide-to-matched-betting

As for why now is the best time to get into matched betting, well that is simple. Big events like the Rugby World Cup bring enhanced welcome offers (which is where the majority of your profit comes from), great odds boosts and lucrative reload offers (offers for existing customers). All of which noticeably increases the profitability of matched betting - when compared to starting during a time with no big sporting events.
If you have already completed all the bookmaker welcome offers and know what matched betting is about, then there is still a good reason for you to return for this big event. That reason is Bet365 and Betway's early payout offers. With these bookmakers offering instant payouts on your team going 15 points and 14 points ahead respectively, there is a huge amount of profit to be made from just these two bookmakers alone. Guide for this type of offer linked below:

https://headsandheads.co.uk/training/n71xJQ/2up--14up-offers

Now, regardless as to whether you are a beginner or experienced, Heads&Heads has the best offer around when it comes to your first month of our Premium Matched Betting service.


£1 for 30 days Premium
The expiry date for this offer is currently set for the end of October.
Use code - RUGBY1
Click this link to head to the discount payment page: https://headsandheads.co.uk/sign-up?discount=RUGBY1


For your £1, you will get 30 days access to the following:
> Personalised Dashboard (to track your progress)
> Oddsmatching Software
> All matched betting calculators
> Complete forum access
> Comprehensive written and video guides.
> Live Chat Support


As always, if you have already got what you wanted from Matched Betting and have no interest in getting back into it, please do not disparage individuals from trying it out.
submitted by HeadsandHeads to easymoney [link] [comments]

Pittsburgh's new sportsbook: where's the extra $0.06 coming from?

TL;DR:
Newly opened sportsbook in Pittsburgh, PA presents American Odds on the board, but use decimal odds behind the scenes to calculate payouts.
They say all rounding of display numbers will be in the "player's advantage".
Is this a common thing at casino based sportsbooks? I've mainly bet online.
Details:
So, yesterday was the first day of legalized bet taking at the Rivers Casino in Pittsburgh.
I'm far from a professional, but I would say I'm decently versed in the terminology, math, and process of sports betting.
Other than an actual bet on the TNF game, I was mainly there placing two small bets to have as 'souvenir tickets' to say I placed a bet on day one: Steelers and Penguins.
So, I look at the board for the Steelers spread:
Pittsburgh Steelers | +3.0 (-117) |
Ok. Steelers are a 3 point underdog, and you have to bet $117 to profit $100.
I want to bet to win $10.00 on my souvenir ticket.
So I bet $11.70, right?
I place my bet. On my ticket:
Wager: $11.70
Potential Payout: $21.76.
Point Spread
PIT Steelers 3 -117
WHERE'S THE EXTRA $0.06 coming from?
So, there's all kinds of staff around the sports book area to answer questions that new betters may have.
I ask the one guy about it, and it's all about how the system actually works, and how they present it to the end user.
So, the sports book software uses decimal odds behind the scenes, and they just display rounded-off American Odds on the boards because that's what the US market is used to.
So, really my bet was: 1.8598 odds in decimal notation, which is around -116.30 in American Odds notation
So, I got my bet for 000.7 cheaper juice than expected, because (according to the staff member I talked to) any rounding will "always" be in the advantage of the player, never the house.
submitted by ThePittsburghPolack to sportsbook [link] [comments]

Celebrating England in the Rugby World Cup (Discount Extended!)

Whether you are interested in the Rugby World Cup or not, we all want to make money - and this post will help you do just that
Full disclosure first - we ran this discount for our service in September (and posted on this community), but seeing as England are actually doing quite well, we thought we'd bring it back to celebrate them getting through to the knock out stages.
So, how will this post help you make money exactly?
Well, it is all thanks to matched betting - which is still the best way to supplement your monthly income online.
If you are new to matched betting, then you can check out this comprehensive article from Money Magpie:

https://www.moneymagpie.com/make-money/beginners-guide-to-matched-betting

As for why now is the best time to get into matched betting, well that is simple. Big events like the Rugby World Cup bring enhanced welcome offers (which is where the majority of your profit comes from), great odds boosts and lucrative reload offers (offers for existing customers). All of which noticeably increases the profitability of matched betting - when compared to starting during a time with no big sporting events.
If you have already completed all the bookmaker welcome offers and know what matched betting is about, then there is still a good reason for you to return for this big event. That reason is Bet365 and Betway's early payout offers. With these bookmakers offering instant payouts on your team going 15 points and 14 points ahead respectively, there is a huge amount of profit to be made from just these two bookmakers alone. Guide for this type of offer linked below:

https://headsandheads.co.uk/training/n71xJQ/2up--14up-offers

Now, regardless as to whether you are a beginner or experienced, Heads&Heads has the best offer around when it comes to your first month of our Premium Matched Betting service.

£1 for 30 days Premium
The expiry date for this offer is currently set for the end of October.
Use code - RUGBY1
Click this link to head to the discount payment page: https://headsandheads.co.uk/sign-up?discount=RUGBY1

For your £1, you will get 30 days access to the following:
> Personalised Dashboard (to track your progress)
> Oddsmatching Software
> All matched betting calculators
> Complete forum access
> Comprehensive written and video guides.
> Live Chat Support

As always, if you have already got what you wanted from Matched Betting and have no interest in getting back into it, please do not disparage individuals from trying it out.
submitted by HeadsandHeads to shamelessplug [link] [comments]

Celebrating England in the Rugby World Cup (Discount Extended!)

Whether you are interested in the Rugby World Cup or not, we all want to make money - and this post will help you do just that!
Full disclosure first - we ran this discount for our service in September (and posted on this community), but seeing as England are actually doing quite well, we thought we'd bring it back to celebrate them getting through to the knock out stages.
So, how will this post help you make money exactly?
Well, it is all thanks to matched betting - which is still the best way to supplement your monthly income online.
If you are new to matched betting, then you can check out this comprehensive article from Money Magpie:

https://www.moneymagpie.com/make-money/beginners-guide-to-matched-betting

As for why now is the best time to get into matched betting, well that is simple. Big events like the Rugby World Cup bring enhanced welcome offers (which is where the majority of your profit comes from), great odds boosts and lucrative reload offers (offers for existing customers). All of which noticeably increases the profitability of matched betting - when compared to starting during a time with no big sporting events.
If you have already completed all the bookmaker welcome offers and know what matched betting is about, then there is still a good reason for you to return for this big event. That reason is Bet365 and Betway's early payout offers. With these bookmakers offering instant payouts on your team going 15 points and 14 points ahead respectively, there is a huge amount of profit to be made from just these two bookmakers alone. Guide for this type of offer linked below:

https://headsandheads.co.uk/training/n71xJQ/2up--14up-offers

Now, regardless as to whether you are a beginner or experienced, Heads&Heads has the best offer around when it comes to your first month of our Premium Matched Betting service.


£1 for 30 days Premium
The expiry date for this offer is currently set for the end of October.
Use code - RUGBY1
Click this link to head to the discount payment page: https://headsandheads.co.uk/sign-up?discount=RUGBY1


For your £1, you will get 30 days access to the following:
> Personalised Dashboard (to track your progress)
> Oddsmatching Software
> All matched betting calculators
> Complete forum access
> Comprehensive written and video guides.
> Live Chat Support


As always, if you have already got what you wanted from Matched Betting and have no interest in getting back into it, please do not disparage individuals from trying it out.
submitted by HeadsandHeads to beermoneyuk [link] [comments]

FWIW This is What Las Vegas Think About this Series

First a brief explanation on how betting lines work.
Underdog lines are simple. +150 means a $100 bet pays $150. (Bet $100 and walk away with $250 total).
Favorite lines you calculate payout by dividing 100 by the line offered (I. E. -200). 100/200 = 0.5. This is your multiplier and you use this to multiply your bet to calculate payout. I. E. On -200 odds a $100 bet pays $50 (walk away with $150 total).
The Warriors opened the series as -290 favorites in most places. After splitting the games in Toronto they opened this morning at -275. This is a little bit less favored than the opening series betting line. Throughout the day bettors have poured money in on GSW and they are now sitting at -300. They are effectively 3:1 favorites.
What this means is Golden State was always expected to split in Toronto. Las Vegas anticipated a split in Toronto. GSW was always going to return to Oracle at 1-1 as far as Las Vegas was concerned.
Unfortunately, the current betting line indicates that Las Vegas anticipates a split over the next 2 games once again. If Las Vegas felt that stealing home court advantage in the first 2 away games was of significant value for the Warriors the Warriors would have opened as much larger favorites this morning. Instead the Warriors opened at lower odds than when the series started.
This post doesn't suggest that sports are rigged or any sort of nonsense like that. All that this post indicates is that Las Vegas anticipates this series headed back to Toronto at 2-2.
Thanks for reading. Go Warriors!
submitted by Clownier to warriors [link] [comments]

Celebrating England in the Rugby World Cup (Discount Extended!)

Whether you are interested in the Rugby World Cup or not, we all want to make money - and this post will help you do just that!
Full disclosure first - we ran this discount for our service in September (and posted on this community), but seeing as England are actually doing quite well, we thought we'd bring it back to celebrate them getting through to the knock out stages.
So, how will this post help you make money exactly?
Well, it is all thanks to matched betting - which is still the best way to supplement your monthly income online.
If you are new to matched betting, then you can check out this comprehensive article from Money Magpie:

https://www.moneymagpie.com/make-money/beginners-guide-to-matched-betting

As for why now is the best time to get into matched betting, well that is simple. Big events like the Rugby World Cup bring enhanced welcome offers (which is where the majority of your profit comes from), great odds boosts and lucrative reload offers (offers for existing customers). All of which noticeably increases the profitability of matched betting - when compared to starting during a time with no big sporting events.
If you have already completed all the bookmaker welcome offers and know what matched betting is about, then there is still a good reason for you to return for this big event. That reason is Bet365 and Betway's early payout offers. With these bookmakers offering instant payouts on your team going 15 points and 14 points ahead respectively, there is a huge amount of profit to be made from just these two bookmakers alone. Guide for this type of offer linked below:

https://headsandheads.co.uk/training/n71xJQ/2up--14up-offers

Now, regardless as to whether you are a beginner or experienced, Heads&Heads has the best offer around when it comes to your first month of our Premium Matched Betting service.

£1 for 30 days Premium
The expiry date for this offer is currently set for the end of October.
Use code - RUGBY1
Click this link to head to the discount payment page: https://headsandheads.co.uk/sign-up?discount=RUGBY1


For your £1, you will get 30 days access to the following:
> Personalised Dashboard (to track your progress)
> Oddsmatching Software
> All matched betting calculators
> Complete forum access
> Comprehensive written and video guides.
> Live Chat Support


As always, if you have already got what you wanted from Matched Betting and have no interest in getting back into it, please do not disparage individuals from trying it out.
submitted by HeadsandHeads to UKUniversityStudents [link] [comments]

Celebrating England in the Rugby World Cup (Discount Extended!)

Whether you are interested in the Rugby World Cup or not, we all want to make money - and this post will help you do just that!
Full disclosure first - we ran this discount for our service in September (and posted on this community), but seeing as England are actually doing quite well, we thought we'd bring it back to celebrate them getting through to the knock out stages.
So, how will this post help you make money exactly?
Well, it is all thanks to matched betting - which is still the best way to supplement your monthly income online.
If you are new to matched betting, then you can check out this comprehensive article from Money Magpie:

https://www.moneymagpie.com/make-money/beginners-guide-to-matched-betting

As for why now is the best time to get into matched betting, well that is simple. Big events like the Rugby World Cup bring enhanced welcome offers (which is where the majority of your profit comes from), great odds boosts and lucrative reload offers (offers for existing customers). All of which noticeably increases the profitability of matched betting - when compared to starting during a time with no big sporting events.

If you have already completed all the bookmaker welcome offers and know what matched betting is about, then there is still a good reason for you to return for this big event. That reason is Bet365 and Betway's early payout offers. With these bookmakers offering instant payouts on your team going 15 points and 14 points ahead respectively, there is a huge amount of profit to be made from just these two bookmakers alone. Guide for this type of offer linked below:

https://headsandheads.co.uk/training/n71xJQ/2up--14up-offers

Now, regardless as to whether you are a beginner or experienced, Heads&Heads has the best offer around when it comes to your first month of our Premium Matched Betting service.


£1 for 30 days Premium
The expiry date for this offer is currently set for the end of October.
Use code - RUGBY1
Click this link to head to the discount payment page: https://headsandheads.co.uk/sign-up?discount=RUGBY1


For your £1, you will get 30 days access to the following:
> Personalised Dashboard (to track your progress)
> Oddsmatching Software
> All matched betting calculators
> Complete forum access
> Comprehensive written and video guides.
> Live Chat Support


As always, if you have already got what you wanted from Matched Betting and have no interest in getting back into it, please do not disparage individuals from trying it out.
submitted by HeadsandHeads to wfhp [link] [comments]

Celebrating England in the Rugby World Cup (Discount Extended!)

Whether you are interested in the Rugby World Cup or not, we all want to make money - and this post will help you do just that
Full disclosure first - we ran this discount for our service in September (and posted on this community), but seeing as England are actually doing quite well, we thought we'd bring it back to celebrate them getting through to the knock out stages.
So, how will this post help you make money exactly?
Well, it is all thanks to matched betting - which is still the best way to supplement your monthly income online.
If you are new to matched betting, then you can check out this comprehensive article from Money Magpie:

https://www.moneymagpie.com/make-money/beginners-guide-to-matched-betting

As for why now is the best time to get into matched betting, well that is simple. Big events like the Rugby World Cup bring enhanced welcome offers (which is where the majority of your profit comes from), great odds boosts and lucrative reload offers (offers for existing customers). All of which noticeably increases the profitability of matched betting - when compared to starting during a time with no big sporting events.

If you have already completed all the bookmaker welcome offers and know what matched betting is about, then there is still a good reason for you to return for this big event. That reason is Bet365 and Betway's early payout offers. With these bookmakers offering instant payouts on your team going 15 points and 14 points ahead respectively, there is a huge amount of profit to be made from just these two bookmakers alone. Guide for this type of offer linked below:

https://headsandheads.co.uk/training/n71xJQ/2up--14up-offers

Now, regardless as to whether you are a beginner or experienced, Heads&Heads has the best offer around when it comes to your first month of our Premium Matched Betting service.


£1 for 30 days Premium
The expiry date for this offer is currently set for the end of October.
Use code - RUGBY1
Click this link to head to the discount payment page: https://headsandheads.co.uk/sign-up?discount=RUGBY1


For your £1, you will get 30 days access to the following:
> Personalised Dashboard (to track your progress)
> Oddsmatching Software
> All matched betting calculators
> Complete forum access
> Comprehensive written and video guides.
> Live Chat Support


As always, if you have already got what you wanted from Matched Betting and have no interest in getting back into it, please do not disparage individuals from trying it out.
submitted by HeadsandHeads to SideHustler [link] [comments]

Celebrating the Rugby World Cup (New User Discount)

Whether you are in to Rugby or not, the 2019 Rugby World Cup represents a great opportunity to make some money without ever risking your own funds.
This is all thanks to matched betting, which is still the best way to supplement your monthly income online.
If you are new to matched betting, then you can check out this comprehensive article from Money Magpie:

https://www.moneymagpie.com/make-money/beginners-guide-to-matched-betting

As for why now is the best time to get into matched betting, well that is simple. Big events like the Rugby World Cup bring enhanced welcome offers (which is where the majority of your profit comes from), great odds boosts and lucrative reload offers (offers for existing customers). All of which noticeably increases the profitability of matched betting - when compared to starting during a time with no big sporting events.
If you have already completed all the bookmaker welcome offers and know what matched betting is about, then there is still a good reason for you to return for this big event. That reason is Bet365 and Betway's early payout offers. With these bookmakers offering instant payouts on your team going 15 points and 14 points ahead respectively, there is a huge amount of profit to be made from just these two bookmakers alone. Guide for this type of offer linked below:

https://headsandheads.co.uk/training/n71xJQ/2up--14up-offers


Now, regardless as to whether you are a beginner or experienced, Heads&Heads has the best offer around when it comes to your first month of our Premium Matched Betting service.

£1 for 30 days Premium
The expiry date for this offer is currently set for the end of September.
Use code - RUGBY1
Click this link to head to the discount payment page: https://headsandheads.co.uk/sign-up?discount=RUGBY1


For your £1, you will get 30 days access to the following:
> Personalised Dashboard (to track your progress)
> Oddsmatching Software
> All matched betting calculators
> Complete forum access
> Comprehensive written and video guides.
> Live Chat Support

As always, if you have already got what you wanted from Matched Betting and have no interest in getting back into it, please do not disparage individuals from trying it out.
submitted by HeadsandHeads to easymoney [link] [comments]

Celebrating the Rugby World Cup (New User Discount)

Whether you are in to Rugby or not, the 2019 Rugby World Cup represents a great opportunity to make some money without ever risking your own funds.
This is all thanks to matched betting, which is still the best way to supplement your monthly income online.
If you are new to matched betting, then you can check out this comprehensive article from Money Magpie:

https://www.moneymagpie.com/make-money/beginners-guide-to-matched-betting

As for why now is the best time to get into matched betting, well that is simple. Big events like the Rugby World Cup bring enhanced welcome offers (which is where the majority of your profit comes from), great odds boosts and lucrative reload offers (offers for existing customers). All of which noticeably increases the profitability of matched betting - when compared to starting during a time with no big sporting events.
If you have already completed all the bookmaker welcome offers and know what matched betting is about, then there is still a good reason for you to return for this big event. That reason is Bet365 and Betway's early payout offers. With these bookmakers offering instant payouts on your team going 15 points and 14 points ahead respectively, there is a huge amount of profit to be made from just these two bookmakers alone. Guide for this type of offer linked below:

https://headsandheads.co.uk/training/n71xJQ/2up--14up-offers

Now, regardless as to whether you are a beginner or experienced, Heads&Heads has the best offer around when it comes to your first month of our Premium Matched Betting service.

£1 for 30 days Premium
The expiry date for this offer is currently set for the end of September.
Use code - RUGBY1
Click this link to head to the discount payment page: https://headsandheads.co.uk/sign-up?discount=RUGBY1

For your £1, you will get 30 days access to the following:
> Personalised Dashboard (to track your progress)
> Oddsmatching Software
> All matched betting calculators
> Complete forum access
> Comprehensive written and video guides.
> Live Chat Support

As always, if you have already got what you wanted from Matched Betting and have no interest in getting back into it, please do not disparage individuals from trying it out.
submitted by HeadsandHeads to UKUniversityStudents [link] [comments]

The New Era of Online Gambling Starting Now

What is Gamblica?
Gamblica is all set to revolutionize the gambling industry with the introduction of its blockchain powered international online gambling platform, which allows for a unique betting opportunity to any gambler irrespective of his/her income and location.
Built by a group of gambling enthusiasts and based on the integration of innovative IT solutions, the gaming platform runs on a decentralized smart contract system, and promises to ensure fair random number generation, cards distribution, betting slip odds calculations, distribution of funds, and payouts. With the introduction of this unique ecosystem, the platform aims to revolutionize the idea of online gambling by making it safe, transparent, and scalable like never before.
The creators of Gablica say that their platform guarantees the fairness and transparency of every gambling activity, comprising online casino games, sports betting and poker. The platform is designed such that it can solve all the problems gamblers have to face in terms of trust, international market entry, and personal data protection. Primarily, it makes it possible for all and sundry to review all operational activities of the gambling operator through an open public ledger with mathematical proof of authenticity.
Some of the key benefits that Gamblica platform will be providing to gamblers are as follows:
Thus, Gamblica is a transparent international blockchain-enable online gambling operator, which will allow verifying all transactions and reviewing the RNG algorithm of every bet or game.
Problems existing in gambling industry For gamblers and sports bettors
For online casino operators
What is Gamblica GMBC token?
The GMBC token is the internal currency of the Gamblica platform. Similar to other tokens, this token is also redeemable and you can use it for betting in all Gamblica games and sports betting. It helps you in purchasing additional premium services offered by Gamblica platform. Being intensely integrated into the system, it ensures the maximum turnover, as per the usage and value of Gamblica cryptocurrency.
Players have to create the initial demand for tokens: to take part in the casino as a player, they first need to buy tokens and make use of them to place bets and contribute to the prize pool of poker tournaments. Here you don’t need to understand how crypto exchanges work rather you can deposit money into your accounts using a debit or credit card or one of the payment systems, and the platform starts automatic purchasing of tokens and credit them to the player’s balance.
Gambling is million and billion dollars business. However, similar to other quick money making business, it is also not immune from the frequent glitches that one has to face. However, the project of Gamblica wants to change it all by making this a completely fair and transparent. Though many such projects are already revolving around the crypto space, it seems to do something different by providing a unique betting opportunity to any gambler irrespective of his/her income and location.
submitted by wizz33 to CryptoMarkets [link] [comments]

Celebrating the Rugby World Cup (New User Discount)

Whether you are in to Rugby or not, the 2019 Rugby World Cup represents a great opportunity to make some money without ever risking your own funds.

This is all thanks to matched betting, which is still the best way to supplement your monthly income online.

If you are new to matched betting, then you can check out this comprehensive article from Money Magpie:

https://www.moneymagpie.com/make-money/beginners-guide-to-matched-betting

As for why now is the best time to get into matched betting, well that is simple. Big events like the Rugby World Cup bring enhanced welcome offers (which is where the majority of your profit comes from), great odds boosts and lucrative reload offers (offers for existing customers). All of which noticeably increases the profitability of matched betting - when compared to starting during a time with no big sporting events.

If you have already completed all the bookmaker welcome offers and know what matched betting is about, then there is still a good reason for you to return for this big event. That reason is Bet365 and Betway's early payout offers. With these bookmakers offering instant payouts on your team going 15 points and 14 points ahead respectively, there is a huge amount of profit to be made from just these two bookmakers alone. Guide for this type of offer linked below:

https://headsandheads.co.uk/training/n71xJQ/2up--14up-offers

Now, regardless as to whether you are a beginner or experienced, Heads&Heads has the best offer around when it comes to your first month of our Premium Matched Betting service.

£1 for 30 days Premium
The expiry date for this offer is currently set for the end of September.
Use code - RUGBY1
Click this link to head to the discount payment page: https://headsandheads.co.uk/sign-up?discount=RUGBY1

For your £1, you will get 30 days access to the following:
> Personalised Dashboard (to track your progress)
> Oddsmatching Software
> All matched betting calculators
> Complete forum access
> Comprehensive written and video guides.
> Live Chat Support


As always, if you have already got what you wanted from Matched Betting and have no interest in getting back into it, please do not disparage individuals from trying it out.
submitted by HeadsandHeads to wfhp [link] [comments]

Guide to Reading Betting Odds: What they Mean & How to Use ... Sports Arbitrage Calculator - Excel Template for Arbitrage ... Excel odds profit formula CALCULATE ODDS AND FINAL PAYOUT How to Sports Bet Part 1 - Understanding The Moneyline ...

Odds Shark’s sports betting odds calculator is a great tool for your handicapping arsenal. Find out what you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered. ... You’ll see that you’d get a payout of $183.33. You would get your initial $100 back plus your winnings of $83.33. American Odds are the default odds at American sportsbooks. These odds are based on winning $100 for a given bet. Betting a Favorite: The odds for favorites will have a minus (-) sign, and represent the money you need to risk to win $100. So if you're betting on the Packers at -140 against the Vikings, that means Green Bay is a slight favorite. Note: The calculator accepts US or decimal odds. For Decimal odds greater than or equal to 100, preface the odds with either a '0' or a 'd'. For example, decimals odds of 200.0000 would be entered ... The long awaited parlay calculator is here! Use American odds (-110, +200, etc.) to combine two to twelve bets. Winning total is dynamically calculated after each entry. A betting odds calculator incorporates the following info: stakes, odds, odds format, profit and payout. A stake is the amount of money a person is willing to place on a bet. The odds are the likelihood of an event happening.

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Guide to Reading Betting Odds: What they Mean & How to Use ...

Learn how to understand and read the most popular kinds of betting odds found on sports betting sites. What do the numbers mean, and how can you determine wh... How to calculate odds, so that you know how much you must spend and how much you will get...and Also know which odds are going to make a lot of money for you with just few matches. In this video my brother Mark, aka MFA, goes over further into the world of sports betting and this time explains how to read the Moneyline and Total betting... This video is only to highlight math, I don't encourage gambling or sports betting. Source of problem: Su, Francis E., et al. "Sure Betting on Different Beli... FREE Download: https://www.someka.net/excel-template/sports-arbitrage-calculator/ This Sports Arbitrage Calculator Excel Template will make “Sure Betting” ca...

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