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NFL teams most likely to go from worst to first in 2020

We have talked a lot about the draft, biggest remaining needs for every NFL team, some breakout candidates and other stuff, so let’s now get back to more of a big picture and look at some teams from an angle of where could they go next season. In this article, I am analyzing those teams that finished fourth in their division this past year and why they could win it in 2020 or land at the bottom once again, plus an outlook where I actually see them.
Of course much of this is about these eight teams and how much better or worse I feel about them than the general public, but it was heavily dependent on their three division rivals as well. The top half I could certainly see earn a playoff spot and surprise some people if everything goes right. After that a lot of my faith is more built around the lack of great competition and giving some hope to these respective fan bases. As the cliché goes – everybody is 0-0 right now.


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1. Arizona Cardinals


Why they can win the division:
Let’s just start with the main point here – this Cardinals squad has all the ingredients to make a big jump in 2020. I expect Kyler Murray to enter the superstar conversation in year two, after impressing with his arm talent and ability to extend plays in a (somewhat controversial) Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign. Steve Keim managed to unload a bad David Johnson contract and basically acquire an elite receiver in DeAndre Hopkins for a second-round pick. Kenyan Drake now has a full offseason to learn this offense and make himself a major factor once again, following up an outstanding second half of the season once the Cardinals traded for him with Miami. He perfectly fits into this offense with a lot East-West based rushing from shotgun sets and his involvement in the pass game, including those quick throws as an extension of the rushing attack. Arizona’s defense should be a lot better with run-stoppers being added in the draft that fit their 3-4 base front with Utah’s Leki Fotu and LSU’s Rashard Lawrence, since they can stay in those packages against the other teams in their division running a lot of 12 and 21 personnel probably. Add to that a do-it-all player with ridiculous range and overall athleticism in Isaiah Simmons at eight overall, plus all the other guys being in their second year under DC Vance Joseph. I love Budda Baker as a missile from his safety spot and I think some of the other young guys on that unit will take a step forward, like second-year corner Byron Murphy, who I talked about last week. Now let’s get to rest of the West – every other team in that division has some issues. The 49ers are facing the objects of a potential Super Bowl hangover and some limitations with Jimmy G at the helm. The Seahawks have question marks on the edge on either side of the ball with Cedric Ogbuehi and Brandon Shell fighting for the starting gig at right tackle and Jadeveon Clowney still on the open market, with a bunch of draft picks these last couple of years having to step up. And the Rams had one of the worst O-lines in football last season and they lost some pieces on defense. The Cardinals already gave all these teams issues in 2019 and have now added pieces that were clearly missing when last matching up against each other.

Why they could finish last again:
Most importantly, I am still not completely sold on the Cardinals offensive line, with D.J. Humphries being signed to a rather expensive deal as a below-average left tackle, third-rounder Josh Jones – while earning a late first-round grade from me – still needing an overhaul on his footwork before he can slide in at right tackle and guard Justin Pugh finally having played a full 16 games for the first time since 2015 last season. NFL coaches had a lot of time to study Kliff Kingsbury’s Air-Raid offense, which when you break it down is pretty simplistic in the amount of schemes they run. Yes, he diversified it a little as last season went along, going under center and running some pro-style rushing plays, but at its core, you can learn how to create some issues for all those mesh concepts and spread sets. As far as the Cardinals defense goes, it is more about pieces than proven commodities. Patrick Peterson is seemingly on the decline, they are thin in the secondary and could Chandler Jones follow soon, after he has been one of the most underrated pass-rushers in the league for a while now? You are staring the reigning NFC champs in the eyes, a team that was a few inches away from earning a playoff bye and another squad that went to the Super Bowl just two years ago. This is probably the best division in the entire league.

Bottom line:
I still believe the 49ers have done enough to repeat as division champs, re-tooling for all the losses they have suffered this offseason. However, I’m feeling pretty good about the Cardinals earning a wildcard spot. While I believe in the Seahawks quarterback and the Rams head coach respectively to not allow their teams to not have throwaway seasons, I also see enough issues with those squads to make me believe the Cardinals could have the second-best year of anybody in the West. To me they are pretty clearly the best of these eight teams, because they have a young phenom at quarterback, stars at pretty much every position, a different type of system around them and what I’d like to call “juice” coming into 2020.


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2. Detroit Lions


Why they can win the division:
Matt Stafford is back healthy and when he was in the lineup last season, this was a team that defeated the Eagles, Chargers and only didn’t finish the job against the eventual Super Bowl champion Chiefs because of some crazy stuff going on late. The veteran QB stood at 19 touchdowns compared to five picks and was playing at a near-MVP type level. However, Detroit’s identity will be built on the run game with re-investments in the offensive line as well as adding D’Andre Swift to form a dynamic one-two punch with him and Kerryon Johnson. Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones may be the most underrated receiving duo to go with Danny Amendola as a tough guy in the slot and T.J. Hockenson coming into year two as a top-ten pick a year ago, having shown flashes when he was healthy. The defense is finally starting to take shape with third-overall Jeffrey Okudah as an elite corner prospect being added to an underrated secondary, Jamie Collins being a chess piece in the front seven after already having worked well with Matt Patricia and some young guys up front trying to prove themselves to go with the versatile Trey Flowers. Maybe more importantly than the Lions themselves – Nobody else got that much better and none of the other three really stand out to me. Other than the Vikings probably – who had the advantage of making a record-breaking 15 selections – the Lions might have had the best draft within the division. Thanks to that last-place schedule, they get to face the Redskins in the East (instead of Eagles & Cowboys) and Cardinals in the West, who I just talked about taking a step forward, but are still a better draw than the reigning conference champions or possibly having to travel to Seattle. I believe that new regime in Detroit has finally built an identity on both sides of the ball with the heavy investments in the run game and back-seven on defense. Winning ten games might earn you a division title, if everybody plays each other tough.

Why they could finish last again:
Can these guys finally stay healthy? Matt Stafford to my surprise played a full 16 games in eight straight years before last season, but a lot of that had to do with his toughness to fight through pain and he had major issues with that shoulder early on in his career before basically breaking his back after putting the team on it for the last decade. Kerryon Johnson has missed 14 of 32 possible starts and he has never carried the ball more than 118 times a season. Their receiving corp has been banged up quite a bit too. More glaring even – how will all these additions of former Patriots players work out? Can Matt Patricia build a New England 2.0 in Michigan or is he just bringing in players he knows will listen to him and the way he wants things to be done? Detroit could also rely on a lot of rookies to be immediate impact players – possibly two new starting guards on offense, running back D’Andre Swift probably sharing the load with Kerryon, Jeffrey Okudah having to immediately become their CB1 and Julian Okwara being asked to become a much more consistent player if they give him major snaps. And I recently talked about how their uncertainty at punter could be an issue for their ball-control, defense-minded style of play. They also have an early bye (week five), which I’m never a big fan of, after facing the Bears, Packers, Cardinals and Saints, which probably includes three playoff teams. If Chicago can get any competent QB play, all these teams should be highly competitive.

Bottom line:
I don’t think any team in this division wins more than ten games. Unfortunately I don’t see the Lions go over that mark themselves either. The Packers won’t come out victorious in so many close games (8-1 in one-possession affairs), the Vikings have lost a few proven commodities and look for young talent to immediately replace those and the Bears still have a quarterback competition going on. So if Detroit can do any better than just split the season series with those three teams, I see them finishing above .500, but ten wins is the ceiling for me. In terms of the competition inside the division, the Lions may be my number one team in this conversation, but I see a much clearer path to things crashing down for Matt Patricia and them having another disappointing season than I do with the Cardinals. No team in this division may finish below that 8-8 mark.


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3. Miami Dolphins


Why they can win the division:
When you ask the general public, the Buffalo Bills right now are the favorites to win the AFC East, but they haven’t done so since 1995 and they still have to prove they really are that team. The Patriots lost several pieces on defense and Tom Brady of course, which probably leads them to starting a quarterback, who over his four career pass attempts has thrown more touchdowns to the opposing team than to his own. The Jets are still building up that roster, with GM Joe Douglas trying to plant seeds on burnt earth, and they face a BRUTAL schedule. So Miami has a lot of things going in their favor for an organization that I believe in what they are trying to build. Depending on what happens at quarterback, you could have a veteran in Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was by far the best inside the division in several key categories last season and/or Tua Tagovailoa, who had one of the most prolific careers we have seen from anybody in the SEC. They added at least two new starters on the O-line, they now have one of the premiere cornerback trios in the league with the all-time highest paid player at the position in Byron Jones and first-round pick Noah Igbinoghene to go with Xavien Howard and with some added beef up front, they are finally looking a lot like what Brian Flores had in New England. DeVante Parker really broke out over the second half of 2019 and Miami should have a much better rushing attack because of the additions up front and two quality committee backs in Jordan Howard and Matt Breida being added. They have two other young pass-catchers ready to break out this upcoming season in tight-end Mike Gesicki and a UDFA receiver from a year ago in Preston Williams. Whenever Tua’s name is called upon, he will be a perfect fit for Chan Gailey’s horizontal passing game.

Why they could finish last again:
As much as I like what I see from this entire organization, it is probably just a year too early for Miami. So many young players could be thrown into the fire and a lot of them I look at as needing that experience – 18th overall pick Austin Jackson (USC) is more of a developmental tackle still with his footwork and hand-placement issues, 30th overall pick Noah Igbinoghene (Auburn) has only played cornerback for two years and was bailed out by his athletic tools at times, third-rounder Brandon Jones has to develop more of a feel in deep coverage and at least one more rookie lineman will likely start for them. Even outside of this year’s draft class, they already had several players on their roster that are still moving towards their prime. Whether you look at last year’s first-rounder Christian Wilkins, a lot of second- and third-year pass-catchers or their young linebackers outside of Kyle Van Noy. The Bills are entering year four of that turn-around under Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane, the Patriots still have the greatest coach of all time and will be a tough matchup solely based on that and the Jets at least have people playing for their jobs, plus a very talented young quarterback I still believe in. As much as I doubt Adam Gase, as long as Sam Darnold doesn’t get mono again, the offense should at least be competent, and the defense could potentially have a top-five player at every level with All-Pro Bowl safety Jamal Adams, an 85-million dollar linebacker in C.J. Mosley and my number one prospect in last year’s draft on the interior D-line with Quinnen Williams.

Bottom line:
As I mentioned before, the Bills are the front-runners in this division for me. As much respect as I have for Bill Belichick, I haven’t seen enough from Jarrett Stidham to make me a believer and he shrunk in some big moments at Auburn. The Jets to me could be a lot better than they were in 2019 and still go 6-10 just because of the type of schedule they are up against. So the Dolphins to me could easily finish anywhere from second to fourth, depending on how some of the players on that roster progress. I wouldn’t bet on them actually making the playoffs, but they could absolutely be a pain in the butt for some of the better teams in the AFC and in 2021 they might be the pick here.


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4. Los Angeles Chargers


Why they can win the division:
First and foremost, this Chargers defense is absolutely loaded with no real hole that you can point to. Derwin James is back healthy after a first-team All-Pro rookie campaign, Chris Harris Jr. comes in to make this secondary one the elite units in the NFL to go with two more Pro Bowlers among it and they have some guys I expect to break out like Jerry Tillery, Drue Tranquill and Nasir Adderley. In terms of having matchup pieces and a versatile pass rush to challenge Kansas City, nobody in the league may be on the same level as these guys. Offensively, Ihave talked about how the left tackle spot is concern for L.A. with a battle between Sam Tevi and Trey Pipkins for the starting job, but the other four spots are as good as they have been in a while, acquiring Pro Bowl guard Trai Turner via trade, signing a top five right tackle in Bryan Bulaga and getting Mike Pouncey back healthy. Tyrod Taylor can steer the ship and even if Justin Herbert is thrown into the fire – which I wouldn’t recommend – they have the skill-position players and willingness to run the ball to take pressure off those guys. While the Chiefs return 20 of 22 starters from a year ago, this wouldn’t be the first time we saw a Super Bowl champion have some issues the following season and as much as we want to hype up the Broncos and Raiders, both their quarterbacks (and other players of course as well) have a lot to prove still. Outside of KC, the Chargers likely have the smallest changes to what they do other than moving on from Philip Rivers and we saw that formula work the year prior, when they challenged Kansas City until the very end for the division crown and the conference’s top seed potentially. While they probably would have liked to bring in Tom Brady over the offseason, the fact they decided against signing Cam Newton to a roster that is ready to win right now, shows you the confidence they have in that quarterback room.

Why they could finish last again:
I’m not a huge fan of Derek Carr, but the Chargers will probably have the worst quarterback in the division in 2020. And their starting left tackle could be the worst in the entire league. As good as their defense will probably be, you can not consistently win games in which your offense doesn’t put up 20+ points in the league today – especially when all these teams in their division have spent so much on acquiring offensive firepower these last couple of years. I believe all three of their division rivals got better this offseason and the Chargers spent their top draft pick (sixth overall) on a young quarterback, who might not even help them win games this season. As I already mentioned, Kansas City brings back almost their entire starting lineups and they went 12-4 despite Mahomes seemingly having his knee cap facing the sideline while laying on his back. I have uttered my thoughts on Denver several times now, which you can read up on later. As for Las Vegas’ new team, they did start last season 6-4 and just heavily invested into their two major issues – wide receiver and linebacker. And while I don’t like to talk about it – injuries have been a huge issue for this Chargers team in recent years and I don’t really know what it is even, but I can’t assume that they all of a sudden can stay healthy.

Bottom line:
In terms of talent on the roster outside of the quarterback position, you could make a pretty compelling argument that the Chargers are ahead of all the other teams on this list. That’s the reason they have a pretty high floor of finishing around .500 and if everything works out, they could absolutely be a playoff contender. However, for this exercise in particular, I believe their upside is capped by what they have under center. Tyrod Taylor can be a top-20 quarterback in the NFL this season and in terms of upside, Justin Herbert has all the tools to become a difference-maker once he steps on the field, but they don’t have the explosiveness the Chiefs or the Broncos have for that matter. With so much continuity on a team that has the best player in the entire league, I can’t go against the Chiefs and in the end we are evaluating the chances to actually win the division.


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5. Washington Redskins


Why they can win the division:
These guys are very reminiscent of the 49ers with their defensive line, in terms of having invested a lot of high draft picks into the unit these last couple of years and now with that second overall pick bringing in a true stud from Ohio State – this time in Chase Young. When you look at all those guys up front – with the Bama boys patrolling the middle, Matt Ioannidis capable of moving around the front, Montez Sweat looking to break out in year two and Ryan Kerrigan still being there as a productive veteran – they will wreak some havoc this season. Ron Rivera could finally bring some structure to this organization and help them turn it around on defense with the addition of an old companion in Thomas Davis, plus some high-upside players like Reuben Foster and Fabian Moreau looking to prove themselves. Quarterback Dwayne Haskins had a very underwhelming rookie campaign, but he clearly wasn’t ready to be out there and found himself in a bad situation in terms of the support system around him. I like a lot of their young skill-position players the front office has surrounded him with, when you look at Terry McLaurin trying to become a young star in this league, who produced despite shaky quarterback play last season, Kelvin Harmon and Antonio Gandy-Golden being two big-bodied targets I liked these last two drafts, Derrius Guice hopefully finally being able to stay healthy to lead this backfield and this year’s third-round pick Antonio Gibson being a chess piece that you can manufacture touches for. Somebody I forgot to mention in this discussion recently is Steven Sims Jr., who is a jitterbug with the ball in his hands. New offensive coordinator Scott Turner will implement a system that should make life easier on his second-year signal-caller as well, while relying heavily on the run game.

Why they could finish last again:
Haskins is by far the least proven QB of the bunch, with Daniel Jones even being head and shoulders above him in their respective rookie seasons. No pass-catcher outside of Terry McLaurin had any major production to speak. Counting on a 37-year old Thomas Davis to not only be a leader for them, but also make plays on the field, could create issues, and Washington lost some pieces in the secondary. This offseason is a challenge for any team, that is looking to implement a new system on each side of the ball, but I think especially for a motivator like Rivera, who can give his squad a heartbeat and push them to success, not being there in person with those guys will hurt. Most importantly however, this division to me will be a two-man race between the Eagles and Cowboys – as it has been for a while now. They both will likely have top ten quarterbacks, better receiving corps, better offensive lines and more experienced defenses. The Giants may not blow anybody away coming into 2020, but looking at the two matchups from last year between them and the Redskins, Big Blue beat them 24-3 the first time around, when Daniel Jones threw one touchdown compared to two interceptions and then he diced them up for five TDs and no picks in week 16. The one area Washington would have had the clear upper hand was with their front-four, but New York just invested a lot of draft capital into their O-line to prevent that. Just go through the Redskins’ schedule and show me more than six wins. I dare you.

Bottom line:
These last two sentences really say it all. Even if Philly and Dallas split the season series and Washington can get a game off either one of them, it will be tough to turn around this squad as quickly as this season – with reduced practice time and team activities – to a point where they can finish above both of them. Both of them could easily win double-digit games in 2020 and while I think the Redskins are on the right track if Haskins looks more like the Ohio State version of himself, other than their defensive line, no unit for them is ready to compete for the division quite yet. Just going through their schedule in an objective manner, it is tough to find any lay-ups and say Washington has some baseline of wins they count on. To not have them any lower than this is more due to the respect for Riverboat Ron and how high I was on a lot of the guys they drafted recently.


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6. Jacksonville Jaguars


Why they can win the division:
I was going back and forth between my number six and seven teams, because the Jaguars are projected to pick first overall come next April for a reason – they did lose a lot of pieces. However, to me it came down to the fact that the AFC South might be won at 9-7 or 10-6 and this coaching staff actually has to win to keep their jobs. There is a lot noise about the Colts, but when you go back to last season, Philip Rivers was a turnover machine with serious questions about his arm strength. Bill O’Brien made some very questionable decisions for Houston and Tennessee is counting on a formula that is built on a 250-banger running the ball 25+ times and Ryan Tannehill finally repeating a career year, as they are coming off an AFC title game appearance. As far as Jacksonville goes, Gardner Minshew was the highest-graded rookie quarterback according to PFF and altogether I would have put him second only behind Kyler Murray. D.J. Chark broke out as one of the young star receivers and I had a first-round grade on Colorado’s Laviska Shenault if he can be healthy, because his talent is off the charts. I think the O-line would have benefitted from another tackle to kick Cam Robinson inside to guard, but those guys are some road-graders to make the run game work. Defensively the only real contributor from that Sacksonville group a couple of years ago who actually wants to be there is Myles Jack, but I really like their young duo off the edge in first-rounders Josh Allen last year and now K’Lavon Chaisson (LSU). There are some questions about the back-end, but they were built front-to-back with a lot of zone coverage behind it and depending on the development of ninth overall pick C.J. Henderson, they can roll away from him matching up with the opposing team’s number one receiver. Avoiding some of the better AFC squads altogether is pretty sweet as well, to go with facing no playoff team from last year outside their division until the middle of November.

Why they could finish last again:
I’m just not sure if all of these players are ready to fight for that coaching staff and organization. Two of their remaining veterans (Leonard Fournette and Yannick Ngakoue) have openly talked about how they want to be traded, they only have a few actually proven commodities on that entire roster and with the way they have unloaded big cap numbers, they have set themselves up for a true rebuild potentially, as they are expected to be in the Trevor Lawrence-Justin Fields sweepstakes come next April. Even if they can get a few breaks and the division is up for grabs, does this organization even want to win this season? If not for the injury to Jacoby Brissett in the middle of the season, all three other teams in that division would have almost certainly finished above .500 and the Colts are actually the team that improved by far the most among them. That Texans, who have actually won the South four of the last five years, including last season, may be the smallest challenge and still sweep Jacksonville. Vegas rarely misses completely and the Jaguars right now are the odds-on favorite to pick first overall come next April, with an NFL-low OveUnder of 4.5 wins on the season. And as favorable as the early portion of their schedule looks like right, check out this eight-game stretch after their week seven bye – at Chargers, vs. Texans, at Packers, vs. Steelers, vs. Browns, at Vikings, vs. Titans, at Ravens. Ouch. They might go winless over that period.

Bottom line:
The Jaguars to me are a very interesting team, because I believe they have accumulated a bunch of young talent, which gets lost a little when you see all the names that aren’t there anymore. There is a lot to like about this roster, when you look at what these players could develop into, but that doesn’t mean they will have success this year already. The Colts have the best 53 currently in the division (or 55 now), the Texans have the best quarterback and the Titans are coming off an AFC Championship game appearance. Gardner Minshew could make this kind of a tough decision if they end up picking anywhere after first overall and I think some of those other kids will put up pretty good numbers, but they are still pretty clearly fourth in the South as for now.


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7. Carolina Panthers

Why they can win the division:
Nobody knows for sure what Matt Rhule and his new coaching staff will throw at them. Joe Brady gets to work with Teddy Bridgewater once again, who he already coached in New Orleans – so there will be familiarity for him in this system and they already “speak the same language”. That young receiving corp with D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel, free agency addition Robby Anderson and even an up-and-coming tight-end in Ian Thomas is pretty underrated actually, plus of course they have one of the truly elite weapons out of the backfield in Christian McCaffrey, who is probably set to break his own RB reception record once again. The Panthers defense-only draft has brought them a monster in the middle in Derrick Brown (Auburn), a really talented edge rusher in Yetur Gross-Matos (Penn State) on the opposite of last year’s rookie stud Brian Burns, a super-rangy safety with linebacker size in Jeremy Chinn (Southern Illinois), what I think is a starting corner in Troy Pride Jr. (Notre Dame) and some other pieces in the secondary. The talent is clearly there and now you bring in a scheme that is probably going to be unique for the NFL level as well, when you look at that 3-3-5 Baylor ran under Rhule and defensive coordinator Phil Snow. As much as we want to praise our legends of the game, the quarterbacks of the two front-runners in this division will be 41 and 43 years old respectively and let’s not forget that Atlanta started out last season 1-7.

Why they could finish last again:
Especially this offseason, without certainty if there will be anything like training camp or even a real preseason, that completely new staff with new systems they are trying to teach will certainly have some growing pains. Bridgewater has been a top-20 starting QB maybe one year of his career and even when he was applauded for the way he filled in for Drew Brees last season, he finished dead-last in intended air yards among quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts. How will that mesh with a lot of vertical targets around him? When he has those guys running free on slants and dig routes, the ball will get there, but will he be willing to throw that deep post or give his guys a chance on go-balls? Defensively they are counting on a lot of young players and they have nobody to even come close to replacing Luke Kuechly, as well as making the switch to an unproven scheme possibly, if they actually use some of those 3-3-5 looks coming over from Baylor. When you look at Rhule’s track-record, it always took him until year two to show improvement and then in that third season is when those teams can really make some noise. And that was in the AAC and Big 12 respectively. Now he is in the NFC South with a team that just went 13-3 in the Saints and a Bucs squad that already was 7-9 and lost six of those games by one score, only because despite finishing fifth in takeaways, they ranked in the bottom five in turnover differential due to easily leading the league with 41 giveaways. That should get a lot better with Tom Brady coming in, who has never even quite thrown half of Jameis Winston’s 30 interceptions in any of his 20 years in the league. Even the Falcons – for as poorly as they started last season – went 6-2 after really coming together and making some changes in their bye week last season.

Bottom line:
The Panthers are clearly the most unproven team in this division. While new systems that haven’t been scouted yet certainly have an advantage in terms of game-planning early on, especially in this offseason with heavily limited live reps most likely, that might equal a net minus. You have to root for a guy like Teddy Bridgewater and the way he has worked his way up to a starting spot again, but I just don’t look at him as a surefire franchise signal-caller. The other three teams in the South all have top ten quarterbacks in the league in my opinion and much more continuity around them. Until the Panthers finally get to their bye week at the start of December, I don’t see them winning more than four of those twelve games. At that point they may have their eyes on a different goal already, if Teddy B isn’t the clear answer under center.


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8. Cincinnati Bengals


Why they can win the division:
We’re not that far away from 2015, when the Bengals won the AFC North with a 12-4 record as the fifth year in a row making the playoffs. Since then this is the first time I feel like there really is change happening with this team. Marvin Lewis was replaced by a young Zac Taylor, trying to prove himself to the league, they drafted Heisman trophy winner Joe Burrow first overall to replace as average a quarterback as we have had over the last decade in Andy Dalton and the front office finally spent some money in free agency. While you would think a quarterback going first overall usually comes into a situation, where he is devoid of talent around him, Cincinnati suddenly has one of the better group of skill-position players in the entire league, assuming A.J. Green is back healthy. Tyler Boyd is a stud in the slot, who will be Burrow’s version of Justin Jefferson, a 50-50 ball specialist in second-round pick Tee Higgins (Clemson) matches perfectly with Burrow’s expertise of winning with ball-placement and if they get anything from former first-rounder John Ross at least as a decoy with his speed, that’s a plus. I expect Joe Mixon to be among the league leader’s in running back receptions and be more effective in space with those receivers around him as well. The signings the Bengals have made on defense gives them a lot more talent and complements very well what they already had. D.J. Reader is one of the most underrated defensive linemen in the league and frees everybody up along the front, they completely overhauled that linebacker group, which was a major issue these last couple of years, they brought in a starting CB2 and nickel from Minnesota to pair up with William Jackson III, who is ready to announce himself as one of the best corners in football, and Von Bell is a great match with the rangy free safety Jessie Bates.

Why they could finish last again:
As talented as all those guys throwing, catching and running the ball may be, it all starts with what’s happening up front and the Bengals offensive line is still in transition. They could have two of the worst starters in the league at both guard spots and right tackle once again, with the prior ones close to reaching that bust status and Bobby Hart still somehow having a starting job. As great as Joe Burrow was last year at LSU and how clean his evaluation was, how much better than Andy Dalton will he be right away, especially going up against those scary defensive fronts inside his division? Defensively they could easily have six new starters, which obviously can be looked at as a positive sign, considering they allowed 20+ points in all but two games last season, but there is also a lack of continuity and reduced time to fit all those pieces together. Cincinnati’s coaching staff hasn’t really proven anything yet and they will be facing a massacre of a schedule, with three occasions of back-to-back road games and while three of their final four games of the season are at home, they will face the Cowboys, Steelers and Ravens, to go with a trip to Houston in-between. If they don’t beat the Chargers in the season-opener, they probably don’t get that first W until week four against the Jaguars and then they have to hope they can sneak out another one until their bye week. Baltimore is tied with Kansas City for the highest projected win total with reigning MVP coming into just his third season, Pittsburgh is favored to make the playoffs with Big Ben back under center and Cleveland was the offseason favorite in 2019, while fielding an even better roster this year.

Bottom line:
I feel bad for putting this team last, because I thought Joe Burrow was the top quarterback and definitely worthy of that number one pick and the Bengals finally spent big money in free agency to retool the defense. To me this is less about them than the Ravens, who just were the number one overall seed in the playoffs at 14-2 and haven’t done anything other than get better themselves, a Steelers team that made a run at the playoffs with the worst quarterback play in the league now getting Ben back and a Browns roster that is among the top ten league-wide in most people’s opinion. Still, there is a lot to like about this team at the skill-positions, which is probably behind only Cleveland in terms all the weapons they have, some young standouts on defense and hope that all of this brings a fresh breath of air.


If you enjoyed this content, I would really appreciate if you could visit the original piece (with video clips) - https://halilsrealfootballtalk.com/2020/06/16/nfl-teams-most-likely-to-go-from-worst-to-first-in-2020/
You can also listen to my breakdown on Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R9kCcuPobNU
submitted by hallach_halil to nfl [link] [comments]

Offseason Review Series: The 2020 Indianapolis Colts

Indianapolis Colts

Division: AFC South

Coaching Changes

Colts lost defensive line coach Mike Phair to the Panthers and replaced him with Brian Baker who is most recently out of Alabama. Mike Groh reunites with Frank Reich as he was hired as wide receivers coach, while Patullo moved to the role of pass game specialist to accommodate. Tyler Boyles was signed on as the assistant to the head coach to replace Parks Frazier who is moving to offensive quality control coach.

Free Agency

Players lost/cut
Name Position New Team
Adam Vinatieri K Free Agent
Clayton Geathers S Free Agent
Joe Haeg T Buccaneers
Jabaal Sheard DE Free Agent
Eric Ebron TE Steelers
Devin Funchess WR Green Bay
Pierre Desir CB New York Jets
Quincy Wilson CB New York Jets
Adam hasn’t officially announced his retirement, but I doubt he comes back to the NFL. He struggled throughout the year before going on IR. Geathers is a great character guy who began the season as the starting strong safety, but slowly lost reps to the impressive rookie Khari Willis. Haeg is the only guy the Colts probably wanted back as he’s a capable backup at all five slots on the line. Sheard is getting up there in age, Ebron seems to have made a business decision, and Funchess was the worst affected in the week one Claviclysm when injured his clavicle alongside Hill and Foles while being the only one to miss the rest of the season. Pierre Desir was an unexpected cut this offseason after playing well enough through the year despite playing through an injury. Quincy Wilson was traded to the Jets after a few disappointing seasons.
Players signed
Name Position Old Team Length Money
Philip Rivers QB Chargers 1 Yr 25 Mil
DeForest Buckner DT 49ers 5 Yr 21 Mil/Y
Sheldon Day DT 49ers 1 Yr 1.75 Mil
Xavier Rhodes CB Vikings 1 Yr 3 Mil
Trey Burton TE Bears 1 Yr .91 Mil
Roosevelt Nix RB Steelers 1 Yr .96 Mil
TJ Carrie CB Browns 1 Yr 1 Mil
Let’s start with Philip Rivers. It’s clear that Jacoby Brissett is not the guy and the Colts had to make a choice. They went with a player that both head coach Frank Reich and offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni have worked with previously, which may be quite valuable as we implement the offense during a shortened offseason. Regardless, Philip underwent a dramatic statistical drop last year. I think he’s still got juice left in him and can make a great deal of good throws if he has a decent amount of room in the pocket. If you have some time, I recommend this video by The Scouting Academy featuring former offensive coordinator turned quarterback guru Steve Fairchild.
While DeForest Buckner was not technically a free agent, he was a massive departure from the Chris Ballard modus operandi of building through the draft. The team desperately needed a 3T and they traded their first round pick for one of the best in the league. Joining him will be recent teammate Sheldon Day who will likely take over quite a few snaps at the 1T.
Xavier Rhodes was signed on almost immediately after cutting Pierre Desir. He certainly seemed physically incapable of doing what was asked of him last year. Some players have called out the scheme change as a reason that Rhodes might return to form. Personally, I don’t quite see it and think his primary value on the team might be on using his intelligence as a veteran presence in a young CB room.
Of the remaining three, Trey Burton seems like a lock at TE2 after an injury filled stint with the Bears. Roosevelt Nix is an interesting choice as I expect him to continue his heavily blocking role he played with the Steelers as well as pick up a few more rushing snaps than he did with the Steelers as we lack a true fullback. Carrie is a guy that has a chance at being the backup slot behind Kenny Moore, but I don’t think he’s secured a spot yet.

Draft

Round Pick Name Position College
2 34 Michael Pittman WR USC
2 41 Jonathan Taylor RB Wisconsin
2 85 Julian Blackmon S Utah
3 122 Jacob Eason QB QB
4 149 Danny Pinter G G
6 211 Robert Windsor DT Penn State
6 211 Isaiah Rodgers CB UMass
6 212 Dezmon Patmon WR Washington State
7 213 Jordan Glasgow LB Michigan
Michael Pittman Jr, WR, USC 2.34 Grade: A
This man just feels like a Colt. He’s a physical player and will immediately slot in as Philip River’s YOLO target. He’s got great size and uses it well both in positioning himself against a receiver to win the ball as well as using his frame and forcing his way down field. Even on truly contested catches, he has great hands with only 5 drops against 176 catchable targets in college. Lastly, his frame and hand usage make him a valuable blocker, which is particularly valued by Frank Reich as he plans to run the damn ball.
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin 2.41 Grade: A-
This man is going to run the damn ball. Let’s start by mentioning his toughness, with nearly 1000 rushes through three years. The man’s body doesn’t show any sign that it will ever give up. He has enough cutting ability to dodge the occasional tackle, but excels at using his physique and contact balance to force his way through a tackle. If the defense fails to collapse on Taylor quickly, they’re at risk of him taking off. Taylor was the fastest running back at the combine running a 4.39 at 225 pounds. Going 1-on-1 with him nearing full speed is almost a futile prospect. As he finds lanes behind probably the best run blocking line in the league, he’ll be plenty of trouble. Not without flaws, he’s had a somewhat questionable history with fumbles that will likely lead to plenty of time with Tom Rathman. He also has limited experience in the passing game.
Julian Blackmon, S, Utah 3.85 Grade: C+
Perhaps I’m being a bit too harsh on Blackmon because I’m slightly addicted to watching Pittman embarrass the Utah defense in the Utah vs USC game. Perhaps it’s just because I’ve watched limited tape and safeties struggle with getting on tape for failing in coverage more often than being particularly good in coverage. Either way, as the heir apparent to Malik Hooker’s starting free safety position, Blackmon feels in a way like the opposite player. While both players had an eye for the ball coming out of college, Blackmon feels overall much more inconsistent in coverage, but he also feels like a much more solid tackler. Blackmon is also a recent convert to safety from corner, so perhaps what I’m seeing is simply growing pains especially because my reviewed games are from early in the season.
Jacob Eason, QB, Washington 4.122 Grade: C+
Jacob Eason was a surprise drop for many who considered him a second round prospect. His arm is an absolute cannon belonging right in that Josh Allen tier of pure arm strength. Of course, he’s a fourth round pick for a reason. He struggles to work through his progressions, he can’t consistently throw with touch, and there are some huge question marks regarding his work ethic. There’s a whole lot of potential, but I’m not going to call the future franchise QB spot secured for the Colts yet. For the time being, I’ll call him a fine backup for a team that didn’t otherwise have a QB rostered for 2021.
Danny Pinter, G, Ball State 5.149 Grade: B-
Danny Pinter is an undersized prospect that is moving in to play guard after most recently playing as a tackle. As a tight end convert from a small school, he still lacks a lot of the technique and strength and conditioning that you would hope for in an NFL O-line prospect. I’ve seen him be pretty weak with his hand placement and he’s let the defender get into his chest a couple times. The upside here is Pinter’s mobility. He ran the second fastest 40 of all offensive linemen at the combine at 4.91 seconds at 306 pounds and put up respectable numbers for the remaining footwork related drills. Altogether a fine pick for a team with a solid offensive line that will hopefully have time to develop their rookie.
Robert Windsor, DT, Penn State 6.193 Grade: C
Robert Windsor has a good first step and a motor that doesn’t stop. That’s all the good I can say about him. Windsor doesn’t have the strength, length, or technique to make an impression. With the potential of Denico Autry moving to the edge, it seems like they might be looking at Windsor as a backup for Buckner. If Tyquan Lewis continues to be a disappointment in the limited camp, Windsor might just sneak onto the roster by need alone, which is the only reason I can bump my grade to a C, though perhaps I’m a little too critical as I felt there were a couple of other players that are more roster worthy.
Isaiah Rodgers, CB, UMass 6.211 Grade: A
Isaiah Rodgers is an absolute burner. His pro-day speed was 4.28. Admittedly hand timed is always faster, but he’s clearly quick on tape. A bit undersized at 5’10”, he’ll likely be relegated to the back end of the cornerback depth chart until he can develop into an NFL level corner, but his immediate value seems very obvious on special teams. His speed makes him a threat at kick returns and he’ll likely get tried out as a backup punt returner. As a gunner, he will gladly hit you with everything he’s got. Check this hit.
Dezmon Patmon, WR, Washington State 6.212 Grade: B+
Patman is an intriguing prospect. He’s got a great combination of size and speed. While easily compared to second round pick Pittman because of his physical traits, Patmon lacks a lot of the polish. Worse hands, worse route running, and doesn’t quite play to his size like Pittman does. Regardless, I expect him to find production in his rookie year as Frank Reich was playing with the most injured wide receiver core in the league last year and has proven an ability to scheme depth players open consistently. Lastly, I think his size and River’s tendencies towards giant players is going to come into play fairly often near the redzone.
Jordan Glasgow, LB, Michigan 6.213 Grade: B+
Glasgow isn’t a guy I want to see playing a lot of defensive snaps in a game. He’s technically refined enough, but physically doesn’t seem to have a very high ceiling. During the Middle Tennessee State game that I reviewed for him, Michigan used him plenty to blitz the quarterback where he was plenty effective, but I won’t pretend that he was up against top tier opponents. Ultimately Glasgow is going to be a special teams specialist after a college career where he excelled at special teams, which at the end of the 6th round is all you can ask for.

Roster

QB: 3 Rivers, Brissett, Eason
Things are pretty straightforward for the Colts this year. There aren’t any preseason games, so nobody can retire after one. Rivers is the starter, hoping to prove that his career isn’t over after a down year last year. Brissett is a capable enough backup. Eason is the team’s insurance for 2021 when no other quarterbacks are on the roster and will hopefully not have to start during what is sure to be an odd season. First man out is $wag Kelly, who seems mainly to hold a roster spot as a favor between Frank Reich and his old friend Jim Kelly.
RB: 4 Mack, Taylor, Hines, Nix
For a while at least, Mack gets to hold the starting job. It’s certainly a competition with Taylor’s level of talent and I expect a pretty even split over the course of the year. Despite some competition at the position, Hines may have his best year considering River’s appreciation for receiving backs. Rosie Nix is the new fullback from the Steelers who might get a few touches here and there, but exists primarily for his blocking ability. First man out is Jordan Wilkins. This is a contentious cut for Colts fans. Wilkins has an unusual level of highlight type plays that lend to his 6.0 yards per attempt over 51 carries last year. Alas, roster spots are at a premium and running backs are not.
WR: 6 Hilton, Pittman, Pascal, Campbell, Marcus Johnson, Dezmon Patmon
Hilton’s the obvious choice. After two years struggling with health issues, Colts fans are hoping their WR1 remains healthy for the whole year. Pittman comes in as a fairly polished candidate from the top of the second round in a stacked receiver class. He’ll hold down the X receiver immediately. Zach Pascal was a pleasant surprise for Colts fans last year. With a list of injuries above him, Pascal did his best as WR1 for several games last year and led the Colts in receiving yards. As a WR3, he’ll get less focus and still be fairly valuable. Campbell has shown plenty of big play ability, what he needs to show is durability. He suffered four separate injuries last year including training camp. Hopefully, it was just a fluke and he can show off more of what he can do with a ball in his hands. Marcus Johnson is a fan favorite after his Tampa Bay showing last year. After starting the season on injured reserve, he returned to the practice squad and eventually made the roster last year. Colts fans are hoping his 16.3 yards per reception last year and 17 yards per reception in 2018 weren’t flukes and can be duplicated on more snaps Rivers. Dezmon Patman comes in as a somewhat unrefined option. I’ve already mentioned his physical traits. With a little bit of help from Reich’s scheming, I think he’ll find a handful of receptions this year, particularly towards the red zone. The first man out here is Daurice Fountain. After moving to the active roster in mid-2018, Reece was a training camp hit in 2019 until suffering an ankle injury in camp. While he might compete for the position, I haven’t seen enough from him in the first two years to give him right of way over Johnson and the rookie Patmon.
TE: 3 Jack Doyle, Trey Burton, Mo Alie-Cox
Jack Doyle has been a reliable pass catcher and mauling run blocker for years. He’s solid in his position as a starter. Trey Burton reunites with Frank Reich and is only two years removed from having a 569 yard season with the Bears. After struggling with injuries last season, Burton is hoping for a return to form this season. Mo Alie-Cox was a bit disappointing as many were expecting more receiving stats, but he’s still a talented run blocker with plenty of potential for next year. With Rivers having an appreciation for big bodied receivers, perhaps the 6’5.5” receiver with a 7’1” wingspan will find a few jump balls his way.
OL: 9 Castonzo, Nelson, Kelly, Glowinski, Smith, Clark, Patterson, Pinter, O’Donnell
The Colts are lucky enough to return all 5 starting offensive linemen this year. Castonzo played some of the best football of his career last year and signed on for two more years after considering retirement for a while. Quenton Nelson is coming off his second First Team All-Pro year. Kelly is a great Center coming off a fairly healthy season and going into a contract year. Glowinski is the weak point of the line, but that’s not so much an insult to Glowinski as it is a credit to the rest of the team. He’s still a very serviceable guard. Braden Smith is surpassing my wildest expectations from the day he was drafted as a guard. With early 2018 injuries to the tackle position, Smith made the shift and has been great at the position. Beyond the starting five, things get a bit more questionable with a significant loss of depth this past year. Clark returns on a one year contract and will be taking over the swing tackle position now that Joe Haeg has left. Patterson suffered a torn ACL in his rookie year, but is the only center on the roster behind Kelly and not including Nelson who only holds the position so he can keep 56. Pinter seems like the obvious option as a backup guard. O’Donnell is a Canadian football prospect that I assume the Colts found at the East-West Shrine bowl where he played fairly well. The Colts need depth at tackle and I can see O’Donnell doing that. First man out is Eldrenkamp as a backup guard.
DL: 9 Autry, Buckner, Day, Houston, Turay, Stewart, Muhammad, Lewis, Banogu
Autry has largely played DT the past couple years and done a fine job of it. With Sheard leaving in free agency, I currently have Autry slotted as the guy to move outside and take over the job. Buckner is our 3T we’ve been looking for. I hopefully don’t need to say anything else. Sheldon Day is competing with Grover Stewart for the 1T spot. I’ve got Day listed as my starter, but for a position that will see plenty of rotation I don’t think it matters either way. Turay is the “if only” story of 2019. Houston had a surprisingly healthy year and racked up 11 sacks, tied for second most in his career. Turay showed a ton of talent in his few snaps prior to injury in 2019. Over the five weeks he played, he ranked second in PFF’s pass-rushing grade and pass-rush rate with a 22.9% pressure rate. If he can build on these past two years, Turay may be a monster. Tyquan Lewis is the disappointment of Chris Ballard’s 2018 draft. He’s struggled with a couple of injuries and he’s had a few healthy scratches that I haven’t heard anything verifiable to explain away. Alas, I’m leaving him in the lineup as a guy who is flexible enough to back up Buckner, but also play outside as need be. Banogu is another guy that has shown flashes here and there. First one out is Robert Windsor, who might take that 3T spot if Lewis doesn’t shape up in camp.
LB: 6 Leonard, Walker, Okereke, Speed, Adams, Glasgow
13 games, 5 Int, 2 FF, 7 PD, 5 Sacks, 121 Tackles. Darius Leonard put up some impressive stats last year and he’s aiming for the top. If he can pull off a 16 game season with similar stats, he’ll have an argument for DPOY. Walker is a smart player, if a little limited athletically and in coverage skills. I’ll keep him as the starter, but many fans are arguing for Okereke to take over the role. Okereke was PFF’s top ranked rookie linebacker last year, particularly for his athleticism and strength in coverage. EJ Speed had some limited play last year while Leonard was dealing with a concussion. He played fine, but has yet to show anything to get excited about. Glasgow takes the final spot primarily for special teams value. Adams has played a handful of snaps here and there, but is primarily going to be a special teams player. First man out is Zaire Franklin was only getting special teams snaps anyways.
CB: 5 Rhodes, Moore, Ya-Sin, Tell, Rodgers
Rhodes is hoping for a resurgence in a different scheme. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and give the former first team all-pro the nod as CB1. Kenny Moore II has been a great slot corner for the Colts these past couple years. He struggled with injuries for a long while to end out the year last year, but I fully expect him to continue his efforts to make himself a household name this year. Rock Ya-Sin was our rookie pick last year near the top of the 2nd round. He had some common rookie CB mistakes, but showed enough talent and growth to believe he has a high chance of taking over the CB1 role. Marvell Tell is an incredible physical specimen that the Colts took last year with the expectations of moving him to CB from Safety. With injuries to the cornerback position, he got a few more snaps than we were hoping, but he flashed a great deal. If Xavier Rhodes’s physical decline last season continues, I wouldn’t be completely surprised to see Tell starting over a healthy Rhodes. Rodgers is still very developmental as a corner, but holds plenty of value for special teams. First man out is TJ Carrie who would have been a fine slot backup in case Kenny Moore went down.
S: 5 Hooker, Willis, Odum, Blackmon, Milligan
Malik Hooker is entering the last year of his contract with the Colts after having his fifth year option declined. Hooker lit up the stat sheet his rookie year, but ever since the scheme change, has struggled to prove he was worth the draft position. With an improved pass rush this year, perhaps his sixth sense in finding the ball will come into play more often. Khari Willis was a pleasant surprise last year. It was clear the Colts liked him when Ballard traded draft capital to move up, but I wouldn’t have expected him to so clearly take over the starting strong safety position. On top of that, Willis played reasonably at free safety during Hooker’s injury last year. Odum is a solid backup who can play at both strong and free safety. Julian Blackmon is the new rookie who I assume is intended to be Hooker’s successor next year. For the time being he’s coming back from an ACL injury and may not be available until midyear, but as the successor to the starting position, I think it’s important to at least give him a spot for now. Milligan is a versatile player. He’s really a free safety, but played a bit of slot corner last year when Kenny Moore went down.
ST: 3 Blankenship, Sanchez, Rhodes
Hot Rod is my guess to be kicker. While McLaughlin played well enough for the Colts. Even with a 100% hit rate on extra points, there’s plenty of room for more consistency as he ranked 22nd overall in field goal percentage last year. It’ll be a tough contest in camp, but if I’m calling my shot with Hot Rod. Sanchez hasn’t played his best football these past couple years. I’m hoping someone else takes over kickoffs and Sanchez can focus entirely on punting in hopes of returning to form.

Position Group Strengths and Weaknesses

QB
The Colts QB room seems solid. I’m expecting Rivers to return to his typical self that still throws a decent amount of interceptions. Regardless, a quarterback that doesn’t constantly hold onto the ball for 3+ seconds playing behind this line is going to have plenty of opportunities to make great plays. For this year of all years, it seems like the value in having backup quarterbacks is going to be at an all time high and I don’t feel so bad about what the Colts have. I’ll call it a fairly average group until Rivers can prove his career isn’t over.
Backfield
The Colts have a group of good backs, but lack an elite option particularly when considering that none have proved themselves a threat in both the rushing and passing game at the moment. As a group, I’ll call it borderline top 10 in large part because any one of these players could get injured without it feeling season ruining as may be true with a few of the teams with top running backs.
OL
I have no complaints about the starting offensive line, the huge question mark is about the depth. The Colts were lucky enough to start the same five men all season last year, but one injury to Anthony Castonzo and Colts fans will have flashbacks to the five game stretch he missed in 2018 where Luck suffered 10 of the 18 total sacks on the season. Alas, many teams struggle with depth and I hope I don’t have to argue too much about this being one of the best groups in the NFL.
Pass catchers
By Adjusted Games Lost, the Colts had the single most injured wide receiver room last year. The single biggest thing that needs to be proven is that we can stay healthy across the board. If they stay healthy, the Colts are a mid tier group, but under the assumption that TY’s health issues these past two years continue, I’m forced to assume they’re a bottom third group until we can trust someone to be a true WR1 in most games.
DL
The Colts starting lineup seems pretty strong, but for a position group that we want to rotate with depth players on, I’ve gotta question what kind of play we’re going to see out of guys like Tyquan Lewis and Ben Banogu. As such, I’ll call this group middling overall.
LB
It’s just a solid group all around. The fact that we can’t decide between Okereke and Walker as starters is primarily a question of which is better, not which is worse. Behind them is plenty of serviceable depth that holds an important role in special teams.
Secondary
This is the one group with question marks at basically every spot. Can Rhodes return to All-Pro form? Was the apparent growth for Ya-Sin real and can it continue? Can Moore stay healthy? Can Tell develop into a starting safety? Can Hooker stay healthy after missing significant time these past two years and can he prove he’s worth his draft position?
Special Teams
What just one year ago felt like a solid group for kicking and punting, now feels a bit questionable. I don’t want to get so down about Rigo’s down year as it was still overall decent. With the new search for a kicker, I can’t complain about either of the current options and I don’t believe either will get nearly the leash that Adam Vinatieri got last year, so I’d say the floor there is much higher. The returning seems like it’s best in years after Hines has impressed and our return team overall just seems to be getting stronger. With the addition of Isaiah Rodgers, this may be a group to beat.

Schedule Predictions

Week 1: @ Jaguars (W)
Ah yes, the Jaguars. An eternal question mark for the Colts. Generally believed to be one of the worst rosters in the league, I’d have to agree. There are plenty of question marks on their defense that they’re hoping will be filled in by rookies. I would expect them to have growing pains even without a shortened offseason. Week one, this seems to weigh heavily with the Colts who’ve added strong veteran talent in Rivers and Buckner.
Week 2: vs Vikings (W)
Despite having one of my favorite drafts of the year, the Vikings have many of the same struggles as the Jaguars. First, we must accept that moving from Diggs to Jefferson isn’t likely to be a smooth transition in Jefferson’s first year. Just as notably they’re losing their two corners that put up the most snaps for them in 2019. While neither of their 2018 corners were playing at their best, it currently looks like they’ll have two rookie starting corners with Gladney and Dantzler and I think all of reddit knows to expect cornerbacks to have rookie year struggles.
Week 3: vs Jets (W)
Can TY play corner? The Jets draft is another one of my favorites, but they’re still not quite there as a whole. Despite my love for Becton, I don’t think their list of offensive line changes have turned into a complete group. On top of that, I’m still not quite happy with their weapons. Bell looks like he’s still got mileage left in him if only he had a better line. Their tight end group is highly dubious, and their wide receiver group has really better hope Mims can actually play like a WR1. I think it’ll be a better game than some might assume based on a lot of opinions I hear on the Jets, but I’ve got the Colts with the edge.
Week 4: @ Bears (W)
As a fan of watching line play, this will be a game to remember. The Bears d-line is arguably the best run defense in the league and they’re not bad against the pass either particularly when backed by a good secondary. Unfortunately for the Bears, I’m expecting their weaker offensive line to struggle vs the Colts defensive line more than the opposite.
Week 5: @ Browns (L)
Ah, yes. I get to another one of my favorite offseasons. Just about everything the Browns did seemed like a good move. On paper, the Browns offense is scary as hell and I just don’t have any arguments for why they would be worse. Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills are going to be great additions to fix that line, then you go and add Hooper as if you didn’t have enough weapons. With even half-decent coaching this team can be dangerous and I can’t trust the Colts secondary to handle every weapon.
Week 6: vs Bengals (W)
After five straight years of the Bengals losing their first round pick for a significant amount of time due to injury, maybe this year will be an exception. With the return of Jonah Williams, perhaps that line can actually have a half decent year, but I’m not going to bet the house on it. For the time being, the Bengals are still working on their rebuild.
Week 7: Bye
Week 8: @ Lions (W)
What little I watched of the Lions last year seemed like a decent quality team. As rarely as I like to bet on rookie corners, Okudah is as complete as any college corner I’ve seen. I’m not ready to call them a strong team, but they don’t seem weak by any means. A return from Stafford could make the NFC North one of the most internally competitive divisions to watch. Regardless, I feel like the Colts have a somewhat stronger roster.
Week 9: Ravens (L)
If only I could go to this game in person. I’d love to see how the Colts defense matches up against that Ravens offense in person. Top to bottom the Ravens have one of the strongest rosters in the league, so they get the strong edge.
Week 10: @ Titans (L)
I hate Thursday night games. The home team has a huge statistical advantage. Going into Tennessee tired after a tough Ravens game certainly isn’t going to do the Colts any favors when they’ve gotta try to tackle Derrick Henry.
Week 11: vs Packers (L)
This is just a long stretch of teams asking a lot of the Colts physically. Stopping the run week after week with the Ravens then Derrick Henry then Jones/Dillon is just going to be physically brutal. Luckily, the Colts are coming off a ten day bye at home, but the Packers are just an overall solid team all around and I think they’ll still be very competitive at every phase of the game.
Week 12: vs Titans (W)
I don’t think the Colts will be happy with their string of losses. I think they’re coming back hungry and trying to prove themselves against a divisional opponent at home.
Week 13: @Texans (W)
After the Texans split games in 2018 and 2019, the Colts are going to get the first win of 2020. For two closely matched teams in 2019, the Colts have lost nobody of any particular importance and purely added more talent, while the Texans sold off Hopkins in hopes that Cooks and Cobb will somehow elevate their offense. It’s a risky bet.
Week 14: @ Raiders (W)
Last year’s Raiders led the Colts by 7 points with just over 2 minutes to go in the half prior to Brissett’s pick 6. Looking at things from a clean slate, I’d fully expect the return of previously inactive Hilton, Leonard, and Hooker to cover the gap between the two teams and I have the Colts winning next year’s game.
Week 15: vs Texans (L)
Let’s not underrate Deshaun Watson. Having watched Luck carry a questionable offense for years, I think Deshaun’s got enough talent to pull some wins out of his ass. I’m certainly not so low on the Texans roster to believe Deshaun can’t push it to a win.
Week 16: @ Steelers (W)
Last year’s game was a 2 point Steelers victory after an Adam Vinatieri kick went awry with about a minute left in the game. So, they question is, were the Colts offseason improvements worth 2 points on the Steelers? Both of these teams are expected to improve greatly with the return and hiring of 2004 quarterback legends, but I’d have to give a slight nod to Big Ben as the greater improvement from Mason Rudolph vs Rivers replacing Brissett/Hoyer. For remaining Inactives, I’d have to credit the loss of TY Hilton as a more significant factor than that of James Connor. What I think finally takes the Colts over the top is the combination of their first round pick for DeForest Buckner as well as a stronger pair of second round additions with Pittman and Taylor vs Claypool.
Week 17: vs Jaguars (L)
If you don’t like the look of that L next to the Jaguars game, you don’t like AFC South football. The Jags always seem like a much better team about once a year. I’m looking at you 2018 Jags. At 10-5, I think the Colts have a good chance at being guaranteed a playoff berth and the Jags probably just want to prove themselves more.

Schemes

Offense
If you’re looking at last year’s team as a model for this year’s offense, you’re probably missing something. To quote Ozzurip from last year’s review, “The point is that there isn’t a specific scheme.” Frank Reich isn’t beholden to doing one thing every week. He wants to find every mismatch and exploit it to the best of his ability by using a diverse set of tools. Jacoby’s limitations as a player saw the passing offense get unnecessarily flat last year. Philip Rivers is the bet to run Frank Reich’s offense properly.
This starts by looking at your traditional West Coast offense utilizing a lot of nickel and dime throws in order to set up a rush. Of course with the Colt’s power running and more modern RPO usage, the run game is setting up this short passing game just as well. When teams are playing too close to the box, Frank will call up a play to push the ball deep where his new quarterback is more than willing to follow through. Ultimately, Reich will push whatever works. If the Colts are running over the opposing team, he won’t be afraid to lean into the run, but I personally believe the Colts will want to be a pass first offense once again. This is admittedly not a commonly agreed upon point among Colts fans. Feel free to take my opinion with a grain of salt.
The Colts have a diverse set of weapons that allow them to play just about any game they want to and will gladly lean on certain weapons to target specific weaknesses in the opponent’s defense. You want big guys? Let’s throw Doyle, Alie-Cox, Pittman, and Patmon out there. This not only puts out a selection of big bodies to have to defend against, but also a good list of run blockers for whichever running back they’re throwing out. Want speed? Hilton, Campbell, and Hines are each capable of stretching the field vertically. The last note I want to add would be a likely increase in 22 personnel. Just toss out Patmon and mix and match some running backs. Reich has mentioned seeing Mack and Taylor on the field at the same time, but I would fully expect plenty of plays with Nix holding a lead blocker role or even a more Tom Rathman-esque fullback that pulls in passes in the short game.
Defense
The Colts defense is a pretty simple scheme based on a 4-3 Tampa 2 defense. Despite some excitement after the Chiefs game where the Colts played man on 73.3% of snaps, expect for the Colts to play a vast majority of their snaps in zone coverage. Playing man for that one game was likely just taking advantage of a weakened receiving core than it was a proof of the Colts sudden willingness to move to a different scheme.
The Colts are heavily reliant on the front four to generate pressure and do so by rotating through 8-9 defensive linemen with the goal of keeping players fresh. The Colts defensive lineman with the highest snap count last year was Justin Houston who only played in 65.18% of snaps. Perhaps bringing in Buckner will cause the team to add a bit more consistency after Buckner’s 78.72% snaps on the 49ers last season. This focus on the front 4 is accentuated by the 6th lowest blitz rate in the league in 2019.
Part of what helps the defensive line be effective is their ability to focus on the passer while the linebackers work heavily to stop the run. The Colts run a lot of a concept called patterns where the play side linebacker’s goal is to control the offensive line and push the run outside where the other linebacker is meant to be athletic enough to cross the line and stop the run. For a more detailed look at the Colts implementation of this concept, read Zach Hicks’s writeup on this
Behind the linebacker group is typically a Cover-2 whose primary goal is to cover the deep zones and prevent any big plays. The idea is that forcing a team to dink and dunk down the field forces the offense to be successful on more plays to reach the end zone. More plays means more opportunities on each drive for interceptions, sacks, forced fumbles, and simply missed passes in order to set the offense back. The Colts were ultimately tied for 10th in the league at 13.1 percent of drives ending in a turnover.
Shoutouts to those who helped:
Ozzurip
Link to hub
submitted by ehhhhhhhhhhmacarena to nfl [link] [comments]

Week 8 Match-up Preview Thread: #14 Utah Utes vs. #20 Arizona State Sun Devils

#14 Utah vs. #20 Arizona State
When: Saturday, October, 19, 06:00 PM Eastern
Where: Rice-Eccles Stadium - Salt Lake City, UT
Watch: Pac-12 Network
Odds: Utah by 14.0 pts.
Total Points: 48.5
All-Time Series : Utah vs. Arizona State
Utah and Arizona State have met 30 times since 10/07/1961.
These teams last met 347 days ago on 11/03/2018.
Series Wins: Utah 8-0-22 Arizona State
Longest streak of continuous meetings: 12 (1966-1977).
Arizona State has won the last 2 meetings (2017-2018) in this series.
Last 5 Meetings
Winner Date Location Utah Arizona State Notes
Arizona State 2018-11-03 Tempe, AZ 20 38
Arizona State 2017-10-21 Salt Lake City, UT 10 30
Utah 2016-11-10 Tempe, AZ 49 26
Utah 2015-10-17 Salt Lake City, UT 34 18
Arizona State 2014-11-01 Tempe, AZ 16 19
Through Week 7
Week Utah 5-1(2-1) Result Arizona State 5-1(2-1) Result
1 BYU 2-4(0-0) W 30-12 Kent State 3-3(2-0) W 30-7
2 Northern Illinois 2-4(1-1) W 35-17 Sacramento State 4-2(3-0) W 19-7
3 Idaho State 3-3(1-1) W 31-0 Michigan State 4-3(2-2) W 10-7
4 USC 3-3(2-1) L 23-30 Colorado 3-3(1-2) L 31-34
5 Washington State 3-3(0-3) W 38-13 California 4-2(1-2) W 24-17
6 BYE N/A BYE N/A
7 Oregon State 2-4(1-2) W 52-7 Washington State 3-3(0-3) W 38-34
All rankings reflect the current /cfb poll
Utah Injury Report
Last updated: October 15, 2019
Player Position Status Type Notes
Britain Covey WR Out Knee Covey will miss an extended period as he is still feeling the effects of rehabbing a previously torn ACL and will most likely redshirt the season.
Cameron Rising QB Out Eligibility Rising is dealing with an eligibility matter and will not be available for the 2019 season.
Injury data lifted from: sports-reference.com
Arizona State Injury Report
Last updated: October 15, 2019
Player Position Status Type Notes
Brandon Ruiz PK Out Knee Ruiz suffered a knee injury, and there is no timetable for return.
Cade Cote OL Questionable Foot Cote has sat out the last two games with a foot injury, and it is unknown if he will play against Utah on Saturday.
Injury data lifted from: sports-reference.com
Keys to the game:
The overarching theme will be experience vs. youth. Utah has a deeply experienced offense and defense, while ASU's younger players have surprised many this year. With both teams currently at 5-1 this game will go a long way in determining the Pac 12 south champion.
The quarterback battle will be electric. Tyler Huntley has proven to be an efficient disseminator of the football, boasting the top QBR in the conference and is among the nation's most accurate QBs (though takes fewer attempts overall). Jayden Daniels is ASU's true freshman starter and is quite possibly the best true freshman QB this year, having confidence and football IQ far above the norm for his age.
Who do you think wins?
Utah is currently favored by 14 points, and will be possibly the most balanced team that ASU faces this year. The Utes maintain a near 50-50 ratio of run and pass, with Zack Moss being one of the best running backs nation-wide, and Huntley being one of the most accurate passers nationwide. While ASU's offensive line has done well this year, especially for starting 2 freshman, they will likely struggle against Utah's effective and deep defensive line.
Do you think the favorite will cover the spread?
The line started at ASU +12.5 and has since risen to 14. This seems too high for many. While the Utes have the capability to score that many, the question is "will they?" Additionally, the weather for Saturday evening looks poor, which may dampen the overall scoring. Be careful betting on this one, it has all the makings of the under and ASU covering the spread
Which player(s) are you most interested to watch?
Again, the QB battle will be fun to watch. Also, watch for Eno Benjamin and Zack Moss, as they are the conference's two top running backs. Also watch for ASU's Brandon Aiyuk against Utah CB Jaylon Johnson.
Let's talk football!
To vote in the matchup "who will win poll" simply include the name of the team you think will win enclosed by {} as part of your TOP LEVEL comment discussing the matchup. To change your vote just edit your initial comment to bracket the other team. You can change your vote as often as you like until the GAME THREAD is posted
A full listing of accepted FBS team aliases can be found here.. For FCS teams you will need to use the full name as it appears in the post title.
A listing of links, and live vote totals, to all Match-up Preview threads for the current week can be found HERE.
Like this format? Generate your own "Match-up Discussion Thread" with the Match-up Discussion Thread Generator. Please DM dupreesdiamond with any issues/suggestions regarding this template
submitted by A-Stu-Ute to CFB [link] [comments]

4 Roud Mock (With some trades)

A big project here that has been underway for a bit, with some tweaking as needed.
I only made trades in the first round. Any trades you see are reflective of first round deals. There's usually a handful of them, so I tried to really push for trades, rather than a take a less realistic approach to it and be super conservative about. Additionally, I added a few 3rd round compensatory picks, based on the projections from over the cap.

FIRST ROUND

1.1 - Cincinnati Bengals - QB Joe Burrow (LSU). Don't need too much explanation here. Burrow is the best QB in this draft, perhaps even the best player, given how Chase Young was a bit quiet against Michigan & Clemson. Bringing him back to Ohio is too good.
1.2 - Washington Redskins - EDGE Chase Young (Ohio State). Another very easy pick, as Young has the potential to step into the NFL as a game changer from the first snap. Explosive, smart, and incredible hands, he has franchise changing potential.
1.3 - TRADE: Los Angeles Chargers - QB Tua Tagavailoa (Alabama). Miami could perhaps outbid the Chargers, but I don't see Miami wanting to give up too much of their stockpile for one player, especially given how many needs the Dolphins have. Thus, their #6 pick, a 3rd, and a 2021 1st round pick to Detroit for LAC to get a QB who could get them back to the playoffs immediately.
1.4 - New York Giants - OT Andrew Thomas (Georgia). This feels like such a good fit. Thomas is incredibly powerful, and fits the MO of the Giants well, building a powerful run game behind Saquon Barkley.
1.5 - Miami Dolphins - QB Justin Herbert (Oregon). According to reports, the Dolphins have done the most work on Herbert, and with the Chargers jumping up for Tua, the Dolphins choose to tap Herbert as their new starting QB, and hopefully fill out the rest of their needs with their massive stockpile of picks.
1.6 TRADE: Detroit Lions - DT Derrick Brown (Auburn). The Lions move back and still have their pick of Brown or Okudah, the two most popular names here. Ultimately, I went with Brown, as Brown can solve both their struggles stopping the run, and provide an interior pass rush.
1.7 Carolina Panthers - CB Jeff Okudah (Ohio State). The Panthers are probably hoping to get Brown, as his explosiveness is unreal, but Okudah could be an excellent piece to Matt Rhule's new defense, with his lockdown coverage ability.
1.8 TRADE: New York Jets - OT Tristan Wirfs (Iowa). As the Cardinals debate OL vs. WR, the Jets ensure they land a top OT by offering them their 3rd round pick and a future 6th round pick. The Cardinals accept, and the Jets get Sam Darnold some much needed protection.
1.9 Jacksonville Jaguars - WR Jerry Jeudy (Alabama). A great spot for the Jaguars, as Jeudy is arguably the best player left on the board, and also fills a big need for an offensive playmaker. Whether Nick Foles or Gardner Minshew starts for the Jags next season, Jeudy will make their lives easier.
1.10 Cleveland Browns - OT Jedrick Wills (Alabama). With Cleveland a sure bet to take a tackle, the Jets hopped them to get their choice. The Browns still take Wills, who has the athleticism to play either side, but either way is a big upgrade for Cleveland, as they attempt to rebuild their offensive line.
1.11 TRADE: Arizona Cardinals - WR CeeDee Lamb (Oklahoma). With their decision now made for them, the Cardinals take perhaps the biggest playmaker on the board. Lamb is an exceptional fit for Kingsbury's passing attack, and he should give them a replacement for Larry Fitzgerald, whenever he chooses to retire.
1.12 Las Vegas Raiders - LB/S Isaiah Simmons (Clemson). With a big need to improve the speed of their LB spot, the Raiders take Simmons, which also fits nicely with Mayhew's affinity for Clemson players. Simmons' versatility is perhaps the best among any player in this draft.
1.13 TRADE: Philadelphia Eagles - CB Kristian Fulton (LSU). With teams like Dallas, Jacksonville, and Miami ahead of them, the Eagles act promptly to get the cornerback of their choosing. Sending their 2nd round pick and a 2021 day three pick to Indy, the Eagles land an elite cover corner in Fulton.
1.14 Tampa Bay Buccaneers - DT Javon Kinlaw (South Carolina). With the top 3 quarterbacks gone, the Bucs opt to do the smart thing, and take the disruptive DT from South Carolina. If they retain Barrett, this could be quite the deadly pass rush next season.
1.15 Denver Broncos - WR Henry Ruggs III (Alabama). The Broncos could use some speed to compliment Courtland Sutton at WR. Pairing the two of them should give second-year QB Drew Lock a promising group of pass catchers, as he attempts to bring the Broncos back to the playoffs.
1.16 Atlanta Falcons - EDGE A.J. Epenesa (Iowa). Almost too good to be true for the Falcons, as they get the second best pass rusher at 16 without having to move up. Thankfully the board falls well to them, and Epenesa gives them a powerful pass rushing presence to boost their DL.
1.17 Dallas Cowboys - S Grant Delpit (LSU). This pick seems almost too trendy, but that's because it's just a fantastic fit. Delpit's stock dropped a bit due to some poor tackling, but his ability to make plays all around the field is still unmatched at the safety position. A great fit in Dallas.
1.18 Miami Dolphins (via PIT) - OT Mekhi Becton (Louisville). The next tackle off the board comes to Miami, as the Dolphins need to rebuild this unit in a massive way. And what better way than to add a massive pass protector like Becton, who can keep Herbert clean for years to come.
1.19 Las Vegas Raiders (via CHI) - WR Tee Higgins. Wouldn't it be nice to grab a QB here Bears fans? Instead, the Raiders add a weapon on the outside in Higgins, whose elite body control allows him to come down with some insane catches. He gives the Raiders the outside weapon they're searching for.
1.20 Jacksonville Jaguars (via LAR) - CB Trevon Diggs (Alabama). The Jaguars could use a corner to play across from Bouye, and Diggs has elite size, and the ability to be a stud for them.
1.21 TRADE: Indianapolis Colts - EDGE Yetur Gross-Matos (Penn State). I'd love to see the Colts target Arik Armstead in free agency to improve their pass rush, but if they don't, grabbing a high potential pass rusher like YGM would be an excellent move, especially after trading back for more picks.
1.22 Buffalo Bills - WR Laviska Shenault (Colorado). Shenault can make plays in so many different ways. He'd give OC Brian Daboll and QB Josh Allen a major boost with his play making.
1.23 New England Patriots - EDGE K'Lavon Chaisson (LSU). The Patriots would be best not using this on a tight end, as they are slow developers in their first seasons. Instead, go sign Hunter Henry, and then draft a pass rusher like Chaisson to help your defense continue to disrupt opposing offenses.
1.24 New Orleans Saints - LB Kenneth Murray (Oklahoma). The Saints could use some help in the middle of their defense, and Murray can make plays from sideline to sideline, a very well-rounded player.
1.25 Minnesota Vikings - CB C.J. Henderson (Florida). Death, taxes, Vikings drafting 1st round corners. Though this time, the need for one is very clear, given the potential exodus of corners they could have in free agency. Henderson has the ability to be a lockdown corner in Mike Zimmer's defense.
1.26 Miami Dolphins (via HOU) - RB D'Andre Swift (Georgia). Fans usually hate running backs in the first round, but the value of Swift here, compared to reaching on a pass rusher or guard here, is fantastic. He's a dynamic back, with play making ability both as a runner and as a pass catcher.
1.27 TRADE: Tennessee Titans - EDGE Curtis Weaver (Boise State) - The Titans hop ahead of the Ravens, landing the pass rushing OLB of their choice in Weaver. A strong pass rusher with plenty of moves, he and Harold Landry would form a scary good young duo in Tennessee.
1.28 Baltimore Ravens - WR Justin Jefferson (LSU) - Rather than reach for an edge rusher, the Ravens add Jefferson, whose electrifying season was a big part of why LSU are the national champions. He can help Lamar Jackson in a lot of ways, and is a pretty willing blocker in the run game.
1.29 TRADE: Seattle Seahawks - OT Lucas Niang (TCU) - Picking up a 2021 3rd round pick to swap with the Titans, the Seahawks use this pick to grab Niang, and give Russell Wilson some more protection, an upgrade over Ifedi in Seattle.
1.30 Green Bay Packers - WR Jalen Reagor (TCU) - Back to back Horned Frogs at the end of the first round, as the Packers add a big time weapon to their offense. Reagor's ability to take the top off of defenses would be a huge boost for Rodgers.
1.31 Kansas City Chiefs - RB Travis Etienne (Clemson) - Wanted to give the Chiefs some defensive help, but nothing stood out as a great fit. Instead, the Chiefs take the best player left on the board in Etienne, and continue to add elite weapons to an already dangerous offense.
1.32 TRADE: Carolina Panthers - QB Jordan Love (Utah State). The 49ers are low on picks in this draft, so a trade back to replenish their ammo would be great. And the Panthers land themselves Love, who can develop under Rhule and new Panthers OC Joe Brady, sending a 4th and a 7th round pick to the 49ers in return.

SECOND ROUND

2.1 Cincinnati Bengals - OT Josh Jones (Houston). Now that they have their franchise QB, they need to protect their franchise QB. With Jonah Williams added in last year, the Bengals add a long, athletic pass protector in Jones.
2.2 Indianapolis Colts (via WAS) - WR K.J. Hamler (Penn State). The Colts used their first pick to add defensive help, and now this pick turns into the speedy Hamler to help the offense.
2.3 Detroit Lions - CB A.J. Terrell (Clemson). After taking a DT in the first round, the Lions land a great fit in Terrell to give them some needed cornerback help.
2.4 New York Giants - EDGE Zack Baun (Wisconsin). Continuing to build the team from the inside out, the Giants add an excellent pass rusher in Baun, who has risen immensely since last season.
2.5 Los Angeles Chargers - OT Austin Jackson (USC). Like the Bengals, the Chargers need to find protection for their new signal caller, and this comes in the local product out of USC.
2.6 TRADE: San Francisco 49ers - CB Jeff Gladney (TCU). After moving out of the first round, the 49ers add extra picks and now select a cornerback to boost their outstanding defense.
2.7 Miami Dolphins - G Soloman Kindley (Georgia). Miami needs to take multiple offensive linemen in the first two days of the draft, and they so here with a strong interior guard in Kindley.
2.8 Arizona Cardinals - DT Raekwon Davis (Alabama). After adding CeeDee Lamb in the first, the Cardinals add a long, powerful DT to give a boost to their defense, rather than reach on OL here.
2.9 Cleveland Browns - S Xavier McKinney (Alabama). The Browns should have plenty of opportunities to fill their biggest needs with elite prospects, and they do exactly that by adding McKinney here.
2.10 Jacksonville Jaguars - RB Jonathan Taylor (Wisconsin). The theme here is continuing to add weapons to this offense, and Taylor can be a big boost either in tangent with Fournette, or as a pass catcher out of the backfield.
2.11 Chicago Bears (via LVR) - G/C Tyler Biadasz (Wisconsin). Back to back Badgers, as the Bears add some much needed help on the OL in Biadasz, who can easily slide to guard alongside Daniels.
2.12 Indianapolis Colts - QB Jacob Eason (Washington). The Colts may have waited a bit, but they do add a QB with immense potential in the strong armed-Eason. A season behind Brissett could do him wonders.
2.13 Tampa Bay Buccaneers - OT Prince Tega Wanogho (Auburn). The Bucs find themselves a pass protector, and PTW may have the highest ceiling out of all these guys due to his immense athleticism.
2.14 Denver Broncos - OT Isaiah Wilson (Georgia). The Broncos too need to find some help at OT, and they get that with Wilson, another incredibly athletic SEC pass protector.
2.15 Atlanta Falcons - DT Neville Gallimore (Oklahoma). Didn't like a fit for any corners here, so the Falcons take Gallimore and provide a boost to their defensive line.
2.16 New York Jets - EDGE Terrell Lewis (Alabama). In need of pass rushers as well, the Jets take a chance on Lewis, who has immense potential, but has dealt with some injuries.
2.17 Pittsburgh Steelers - EDGE Julian Okwara (Notre Dame). The Steelers enter the draft, and they pick Notre Dame's top edge rusher, a crafty and surprisingly strong pass rusher.
2.18 Chicago Bears - TE Cole Kmet (Notre Dame). The first tight end off the board is Kmet, who will provide Trubisky another weapon in hopes that he can get things figured out.
2.19 Dallas Cowboys - DT Justin Madibuike (Texas A&M). The Cowboys first two picks gives them two impact defenders to help straighten out their defense.
2.20 Los Angeles Rams - OT Trey Adams (Washington). If the Rams want another run at the Super Bowl, heck, even the playoffs, they need to upgrade their OL, and they do that with the massive product out of Washington.
2.21 TRADE: Indianapolis Colts - TE Hunter Bryant (Washington) Picking this up from the Eagles, the Colts reunite Bryant and Eason, giving them a natural replacement for Ebron as a pass catching TE.
2.22 Buffalo Bills - EDGE Jabari Zuniga (Florida). The Bills add a pass rusher here, as Zuniga's excellent play earns him a spot in the second round.
2.23 Atlanta Falcons (via NE) - CB Jaylon Johnson (Utah) - The Falcons add a corner with the pick they received in the Sanu trade. Johnson was a major asset for the tough Utah defense.
2.24 Miami Dolphins (via NO) - EDGE Jonathan Greenard (Florida). Just two picks behind a fellow Gator's pass rusher, Greenard fits Flores scheme quite well, and provides some pass rush help.
2.25 Houston Texans - RB Cam Akers (Florida State). Akers may be the most underrated back in this draft, as he managed to put up excellent footage in Tallahassee, despite playing behind that garbage OL.
2.26 Minnesota Vikings - T/G Calvin Throckmorten (Oregon). The Vikings run came to end as the 49ers obliterated their OL. They address that with the RT out of Oregon.
2.27 Seattle Seahawks - EDGE Darrell Taylor (Tennessee). The Seahawks will likely re-sign Jadeveon Clowney as a powerful SDE, but adding an edge rusher who gets after the QB a bit more would be great.
2.28 Baltimore Ravens - ILB Troy Dye (Oregon). Filling the void left by C.J. Mosley, Dye steps into to a Ravens defense, and could be a bit component for them going forward.
2.29 Tennessee Titans - RB J.K. Dobbins (Ohio State). This would change if the Titans re-sign Derrick Henry, however, with a very good offensive line, the Titans could likely continue rushing success without Henry.
2.30 Green Bay Packers - DT Ross Blacklock (TCU). Perhaps one of my favorite "sleepers" of the draft, Blacklock has a fantastic blend of size and quickness to him.
2.31 Kansas City Chiefs - CB Cameron Dantzler (Mississippi St.). A big, physical corner, Dantzler should step in and contribute for the Chiefs fairly quickly, given their needs at corner.
2.32 Seattle Seahawks - WR Brandon Aiyuk (Arizona St.). A big play waiting to happen every time the ball heads his direction, Aiyuk would give Russell Wilson an electric weapon.

Third Round

3.1 Cincinnati Bengals - C Nick Harris (Washington) 3.2 Washington Redskins - WR Donovan Peoples-Jones (Michigan) 3.3 Detroit Lions - EDGE Bradlee Anae (Utah) 3.4 TRADE: Arizona Cardinals - G John Simpson (Clemson) - from trade w/ NYJ (via NYG). 3.5 Carolina Panthers - DT Rashard Lawrence (LSU)
3.6 Miami Dolphins - G Shane Lemiuex (Oregon) 3.7 TRADE: Detroit Lions - WR Michael Pittman Jr. (USC) - from trade w/ LAC. 3.8 Arizona Cardinals - OT Yasir Durant (Missouri) 3.9 Jacksonville Jaguars - S Ashtyn Davis (California) 3.10 Cleveland Browns - G Ben Bredeson (Michigan)
3.11 Indianapolis Colts - DL Marlon Davidson (Auburn) 3.12 Tampa Bay Bucs - CB Deommodore Lenoir (Oregon) 3.13 Denver Broncos - CB Lamar Jackson (Nebraska) 3.14 Atlanta Falcons - WR Bryan Edwards (South Carolina) 3.15 New York Jets - S Antoine Winfield Jr. (Minnesota)
3.16 Las Vegas Raiders - CB/S Shyheim Carter (Alabama) 3.17 Las Vegas Raiders - LB Jacob Phillips (LSU) 3.18 Dallas Cowboys - WR Tyler Johnson (Minnesota) 3.19 Denver Broncos (via PIT) - OT Robert Hunt (UL-Lafayette) 3.20 Los Angeles Rams - DT Leki Fotu (Utah)
3.21 Philadelphia Eagles - S Kyle Dugger (Lenoir-Rhyne) 3.22 Buffalo Bills - EDGE Anfernee Jennings (Alabama) 3.23 New England Patriots - QB Jake Fromm (Georgia) 3.24 New Orleans Saints - QB Jalen Hurts (Oklahoma) 3.25 Minnesota Vikings - DL Nick Coe (Auburn)
3.26 Cleveland Browns (via HOU) - LB Malik Harrison (Ohio State) 3.27 Las Vegas Raiders (via SEA) - WR Devin Duvernay (Texas) 3.28 Baltimore Ravens - EDGE Khalid Kareem (Notre Dame) 3.29 Tennessee Titans - DT Jordan Elliott (Missouri) 3.30 Green Bay Packers - LB Jordan Mack (Virginia)
3.31 Kansas City Chiefs - LB Jordyn Brooks (Texas Tech) 3.32 Denver Broncos (via SF) - OT Scott Franz (Kansas State)
Compensatory Picks (as predicted by OverTheCap) 3.33 New England Patriots - OT Ezra Cleveland (Boise State) 3.34 New York Giants - WR Gabriel Davis (UCF) 3.35 New England Patriots - TE Adam Trautman (Dayton) 3.36 Seattle Seahawks - S Hamsah Nasirildeen (Florida State) 3.37 Houston Texans - EDGE Josh Uche (Michigan) 3.38 Pittsburgh Steelers - TE Colby Parkinson (Stanford) 3.39 Philadelphia Eagles - CB Thomas Graham (Oregon)

Fourth Round

4.1 Cincinnati Bengals - WR Antonio Gandy-Golden (Liberty) 4.2 Washington Redskins - CB Amik Robertson (Louisiana Tech) 4.3 Detroit Lions - RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (LSU) 4.4 New York Giants - CB Damon Arnette (Ohio State) 4.5 Houston Texans (via MIA) - C/G Netane Muti (Fresno State)
4.6 Los Angeles Chargers - C Matt Hennessy (Temple) 4.7 TRADE: San Francisco 49ers - C Jake Hanson (Oregon) 4.8 Arizona Cardinals - RB Chuba Hubbard (Oklahoma St.) 4.9 Cleveland Browns - OT Jack Driscoll (Auburn) 4.10 Jacksonville Jaguars - LB Akeem Davis-Gaither (Appalachian St.)
4.11 Tampa Bay Bucs - RB Eno Benjamin (Arizona St.) 4.12 Denver Broncos - DT Raequan Williams (Michigan St.) 4.13 Atlanta Falcons - CB Darnay Holmes (UCLA) 4.14 New York Jets - EDGE Kenny Willekes (Michigan St.) 4.15 Las Vegas Raiders - QB Anthony Gordon (Washington St.)
4.16 Indianapolis Colts - RB Kylin Hill (Mississippi St.) 4.17 Dallas Cowboys - WR Isaiah Hodgins (Oregon St.) 4.18 Pittsburgh Steelers - OT Ben Bartch (St. John's) 4.19 New England Patriots (via CHI) - LB Logan Wilson (Wyoming) 4.20 Los Angeles Rams - WR Chase Claypool (Notre Dame)
4.21 Philadelphia Eagles - WR Denzel Mims (Baylor) 4.22 Buffalo Bills - WR Jauan Jennings (Tennessee) 4.23 Baltimore Ravens - RB A.J. Dillon (Boston College 4.24 New Orleans Saints - CB Bryce Hall (Virginia) 4.25 Houston Texans - TE Brycen Hopkins (Purdue)
4.26 Minnesota Vikings - WR Lynn Bowden (Kentucky) 4.27 Seattle Seahawks - G Logan Stenberg (Kentucky) 4.28 Baltimore Ravens - Cesar Ruiz (Michigan) 4.29 Pittsburgh Steelers (via TEN) - OT Justin Herron (Wake Forrest) 4.30 Green Bay Packers - OT Matt Peart (UCONN)
4.31 Kansas City Chiefs - CB Kindle Vildor (Georgia Southern) 4.32 Denver Broncos (via SF) - LB Cameron Brown (Penn State)
Anyways. That's my shot at one. Tell me why you hate it...
submitted by boanerges77 to NFL_Draft [link] [comments]

2018 Best of /r/CFB Awards Show

Welcome to the 2018 Best of /CFB Awards Show! While we've used a Reddit Live Thread the last few years, we've switched up the format a little bit. Instead of a live thread, the entire set of awards are in the body of this post, so that you can browse them at your leisure. We still have some fantastic videos announcing the Awards from guest presenters from around the College Football community, so be sure to check those out! These awards were nominated and voted on by the half million plus /CFB users.
We have 3 types of awards we're presenting today:
While the awards used to line up with calendar years to be more in line with Reddit as a whole, after user feedback we're now lining them up with the college football season itself. All awards for the 2018-19 season both for /CFB itself and about College Football started the minute the first game kicked off and ended with the final play in the CFP Final.

Best of College Football, 2018-19 Season

Since we've moved from the calendar year to the season, the handful of games in January, 2018 were never eligible for consideration. We're giving a special commendation to the Georgia v. Oklahoma Rose Bowl in January, 2018 as an exceptional game that happened between award windows.
After an amazing season, we're proud to present 8 awards to people, teams, and events around college football this season that shaped the year to the highest degree. We'll let the award presenters speak for themselves! Huge thanks to PromoPimp for video editing.

GIF of the Year

Player of the Year

Presented by @FauxPelini

Play of the Year

Non-FBS Player of the Year

Presented by CineFunk

Coach of the Year

Presented by @cuppycup

Game of the Year

Presented by @belkbowl

Team of the Year

Presented by @UCF_Knightro

Mascots & Representatives of the Year

Presented by @adamamin
These awards are for superlative performance on /CFB itself! All winners will receive Reddit Platinum, courtesy of Reddit, and all runners up mentioned below will receive Reddit Gold.

Best of /CFB, 2018 Offseason

Because the 2017 Awards were for the 2017 calendar year, eligible nominees started on Jan 1, 2018, and ended on August 24.
Best Original Content (Offseason): nbingham196, Final 2017-18 Imperialism Map
The Imperialism Map was an incredible project that started in the 2017-18 season, and has since rippled far beyond just /CFB. Since the final map was submitted after the National Championship, it won our Best Original Content of the 2018 Offseason. Close behind were shakin_the_bacon's What Directional School is most Directionally Correct?, and 79ajjohnson's Corn Yields and Iowa.
Additional users who made top original content posts during the offseason meriting special mention (and earning Reddit Gold) include:
Commenter of the Offseason: meatfrappe
Congratulations! Close behind them were RatherBeYachting and RealBenWoodruff. Thanks for being a big part of making /CFB special even outside the regular season!

Best of /CFB, 2018-19 Season

Best Original Content: krsgator, FSU is not Bowl Eligbile
Congratulations! Part parody, part meme, part in depth analysis of counting up to 6, this post was a post-mortem of college football's longest ever streak of bowl game appearances. Close behind this were victorycb's Traveling Flag project and GoCardinals74, who got his sign stolen by Drew Lock.
Additional users who made top original content posts meriting special mention (and earning Reddit Gold or Silver) include:
Commenter of the Season: The_Drunkest_Ute
Congratulations! The_Drunkest_Ute made 1,998 comments on /CFB over the course of the season, racking up 71,856 karma, and was selected by their peers as the commenter of the seaosn. Close runners up included pterrydactyl and fireinvestigator113.
Best Original Statistical Analysis: The_SecretSauce, MaxDiff Tier Rankings
This is the second season The_SecretSauce has organized this novel approach to ranking teams. samheld15 was close behind with How Tennessee can still win the SEC East, as was 28-3_lol's Shrek and Ohio State.
Funniest Comment: SonOfSvens, Purdue beats Ohio State
We like to think Tyler would approve. Shamrock5 was close behind for leading a rousing team effort of Whoa, he has trouble with the snap, as was a post-CFP Final Tua Turntheballova by FuckDaBrowns4EVERR.
Best MS Paint or /CFBBall: A-Stu-Ute, /CFB Poll Top 25
This is sadly A-Stu-Ute's last year authoring this series, but it's been an amazing part of the last few seasons. tb25uga's H8 Awakens and SouthernJeb's MS Paints involving jorts were not far behind.
Outlandish Prediction which Came True: Extortionate, Jalen put in at halftime
A modern day Cassandra, Extortionate predicted an incredibly farfetched nightmare scenario for Georgia that became reality. ShamusJohnson13 gets credit for predicting the Liberty Bowl matchup early in the season, and c0y0t3_sly also predicted Cal's low scoring Cactus Bowl against a Big 12 team.
Best Friendly Bet: ugadead1991, Double Flair Bet
ugadead1991 is a Georgia / NC State fan who bet that they would change both their flairs for a year if their teams lost their bowls. Both teams lost, and true to their word, they are still flaired as North Carolina / Auburn. Mensae6 also got high marks for having to write an essay on why the Alabama dynasty was over, as did Stellaferra, who am big dumb dummy dumb Longhorn.
submitted by CFB_Referee to CFB [link] [comments]

Polling Megathread [11/07]

Welcome to the /politics polling megathread! As discussed in our metathread, we will be hosting a daily polling megathread to cover the latest released polls. As the election draws near, more and more polls will be released, and we will start to see many new polls on a daily basis. This thread is intended to aggregate these posts so users can discuss the latest polls. Like we stated in the metathread, posts analyzing poll results will still be permitted.

National Poll of Polls and Projections

Poll of Polls
Poll of polls are averages of the latest national polls. Different sources differ in which polls they accept, and how long they keep them in their average, which accounts for the differences. They give a snapshot to what the polling aggregates say about the national race right now, to account for outliers or biases in individual polls.
We have included both the 4 way race (4 way), and head to head aggregates (H2H), as they are presented this way in most polls.
Aggregator Clinton % Trump % Johnson % Stein % Net Margin
RCP (4 way) 45.1 42.2 4.8 2.0 Clinton +2.9
RCP (H2H) 46.9 44.3 N/A N/A Clinton +2.6
PollsteHuffpo (4 way) 46.1 41.5 5.3 N/A Clinton +4.6
PollsteHuffpo (H2H) 47.5 42.3 N/A N/A Clinton +5.2
Projections
Projections are data-driven models that try to make a prediction of a candidate's prospects on election day. They will incorporate polling data to give an estimate on how that will affect a candidate's chance of winning. Note: The percentages given are not popular vote margins, but the probability that a given candidate will win the presidency on election night.
Model Clinton % Trump %
Fivethirtyeight Polls Plus* 66.3 33.6
Princeton Election Consortium** > 99 < 1
NYT Upshot 84 16
Daily Kos Elections 88 12
* Fivethirtyeight also includes Now Cast and a Polls-Only mode. These are available on the website but are not reproduced here. The Now Cast projects the election outcome if the election were held today, whereas Polls-Only projects the election on November 8th without factoring in historical data and other factors.
** Sam Wang's Princeton Election Consortium includes both a "random drift" and Bayesian projection. We have reproduced the "random drift" values in our table.
The NYT Upshot page has also helpfully included links to other projection models, including "prediction" sites. Predictwise is a Vegas betting site and reflects what current odds are for a Trump or Clinton win. Charlie Cook, Stu Rothenburg, and Larry Sabato are veteran political scientists who have their own projections for the outcome of the election based on experience, and insider information from the campaigns themselves.

Daily Presidential Polls

Below, we have collected the latest national and state polls. The head to head (H2H) and 4 way surveys are both included. We include the likely voter (LVs) numbers, when possible, in this list, but users are welcome to read the polling reports themselves for the matchups among registered voters (RVs).
National Polls
Date Released/Pollster Clinton % Trump % Johnson % Stein % Net Margin
11/07, Ipsos/Reuters 42 39 6 3 Clinton +3
11/07, Gravis 47 43 3 2 Clinton +4
11/07, CCES/Yougov 43 39 5 N/A Clinton +4
11/07, Angus Reid 48 44 6 N/A Clinton +4
11/07, Monmouth U. 50 44 4 1 Clinton +6
11/07, Bloomberg/Selzer 44 41 4 2 Clinton +3
11/07, CBS News 45 41 5 2 Clinton +4
11/07, Fox News 48 44 3 2 Clinton +4
11/07, NBC/SM 47 41 6 3 Clinton +6
11/07, Economist/Yougov 45 41 5 N/A Clinton +4
11/07, ABC/WaPo 47 43 4 1 Clinton +4
11/07, IBD/TIPP 41 43 6 2 Trump +2
11/07, Rasmussen 45 43 4 2 Clinton +2
11/07, LA Times/USC 43 48 N/A N/A Trump +5
State Polling
Date Released/Pollster State Clinton % Trump % Johnson % Stein % Net Margin
11/07, Gravis Alaska 41 44 3 6 Trump +3
11/07, Gravis Arizona 43 45 3 5 Trump +2
11/07, Data Orbital Arizona 44 47 4 2 Trump +3
11/07, Gravis Colorado 44 43 5 2 Clinton +1
11/07, Breitbart/Gravis Florida 46 45 4 N/A Clinton +1
11/07, Trafalgar (R) Florida 46 50 2 1 Trump +4
11/07, Opinion Savvy Florida 48 46 3 1 Clinton +2
11/07, Quinnipiac U. Florida 46 45 2 1 Clinton +1
11/07, Gravis Georgia 44 48 3 3 Trump +4
11/07, CBS/Yougov Georgia 43 49 4 N/A Trump +6
11/07, Fox 2/Mitchell Michigan 47 41 N/A N/A Clinton +6
11/07, Breitbart/Gravis Michigan 46 41 3 N/A Clinton +5
11/07, Trafalgar (R) Michigan 47 49 3 N/A Trump +2
11/07, Clarity Campaign (D) Missouri 38 54 N/A N/A Trump +16
11/07, Emerson* Missouri 41 47 7 2 Trump +6
11/07, Gravis Nevada 45 43 4 N/A Clinton +2
11/07, Emerson* Nevada 47 46 4 N/A Clinton +1
11/07, Remington (R) Nevada 45 46 3 N/A Trump +1
11/07, Emerson* New Hampshire 45 44 5 3 Clinton +1
11/07, Breitbart/Gravis New Mexico 45 37 11 N/A Clinton +8
11/07, Zia Poll* New Mexico 46 44 6 1 Clinton +2
11/07, Gravis New York 55 36 2 2 Clinton +19
11/07, Breitbart/Gravis North Carolina 46 45 3 N/A Clinton +1
11/07, NYT/Siena North Carolina 44 44 3 N/A Tied
11/07, Quinnipiac U. North Carolina 47 45 3 N/A Clinton +2
11/07, Gravis Ohio 42 48 4 1 Trump +6
11/07, Emerson* Ohio 39 46 7 2 Trump +7
11/07, Gravis Oregon 44 40 6 5 Clinton +4
11/07, Gravis Pennsylvania 46 40 7 2 Clinton +6
11/07, CBS/Yougov Pennsylvania 45 43 4 N/A Clinton +2
11/07, Trafalgar (R) Pennsylvania 46 47 2 1 Trump +1
11/07, Clarity Campaign (D) Pennsylvania 47 43 4 1 Clinton +4
11/07, Gravis South Carolina 43 48 3 1 Trump +5
11/07, Starboard Comm. (R) South Carolina 36 47 3 1 Trump +11
11/07, CBS/Yougov** Utah 23 40 7 N/A Trump +16
11/07, Breitbart/Gravis Virginia 47 42 4 N/A Clinton +5
11/07, Hampton U. Virginia 45 41 N/A N/A Clinton +4
11/07, Chris. Newport U. Virginia 48 42 N/A N/A Clinton +6
11/07, Gravis Wisconsin 47 44 3 1 Clinton +3
11/07, Clarity Campaign (D) Wisconsin 47 43 4 1 Clinton +4
Jill Stein is not listed on the ballot in Nevada, South Dakota, and Oklahoma. She is not on the ballot, but eligible as a write-in candidate in Indiana and North Carolina.
*Emerson only polls landlines. The Zia Poll is 95% landlines with only a 5% cell phone supplement. Standard pollster practice is to include as much as a 45% cell phone supplement or internet panel to account for changes in the electorate.
**Evan McMullin is second in this survey, drawing 24% of the vote.
For more information on state polls, including trend lines for individual states, visit RCP and HuffPo/Pollster and click on states (note, for Pollster, you will have to search for the state in the search bar).
Update Log/Comments:
  • Any poll denoted with (R) or (D) refers to a pollster that is an internal pollster traditionally polling for one party or another. That doesn't mean their polls are wrong, but they do have a potential bias.
  • All national polls are believed to be final calls except for IBD. ABC will be releasing its final tracking poll result in the afternoon. CNN is presumably releasing its final poll at noon or 4PM EST today.
  • I updated the previous megathread a little late yesterday. 3 polls came out around 11PM-12AM EST: A Targetsmart final tracking poll of Ohio, showing Trump leading by 3 pts (previously, Clinton led); a WMUUNH poll of New Hampshire, showing Clinton leading by 11 pts (previously, Clinton was up 7); and a Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce national poll, showing Clinton up 4 pts (previously, Clinton was up 5).
  • Opinion Savvy has released its final Florida poll, showing Clinton up 2 pts. Its previous poll had Clinton up 4 pts.
  • Trafalgar has released its final Florida poll, showing Trump leading by 4 pts. The margin is identical to its previous poll.
  • Clarity Campaign, what appears to be an internal Democratic pollster, has released polling showing Clinton up 4 pts in Pennsylvania, and 4 pts in Wisconsin. Trump leads by 14 pts in Missouri.
  • Angus-Reid has released its final national poll, showing Clinton up 4 pts. This pollster used a randomized online sample from an online panel, although its methodology does not appear to be similar to the LA Times/USC panel poll.
  • Data Orbital has released what appears to be its final Arizona poll, showing Trump leading by 3 pts. Its previous poll had Trump up 8 pts.
  • ABC News tracker has updated and finds the race unchanged with the addition of its Sunday sample.
  • Trafalgar has released its final poll from Pennsylvania, showing Trump leading by 1 pt.
  • Starboard Communications has released its final poll from South Carolina, showing Trump leading by 11 pts.
  • CBS/Yougov has released final polls for Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Utah. Its Pennsylvania poll shows a 6 pt gain for Trump, who now only trails by 2 pts.
  • Hampton University has released its final poll for Virginia, showing Clinton leading by 3. Its previous poll last week showed Trump leading by 3.
  • The Economist/Yougov has released its final tracking poll, showing Clinton leading by 4 pts. Previously, Clinton led by 3.
  • Trafalgar has released its final poll for Michigan, showing Trump leading by 2 pts.
  • Gravis has released its final poll for Nevada, showing Clinton leading by 2 pts.
  • Breitbart/Gravis has released its final polls for Florida, Michigan, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Virginia. Clinton leads by 1 pt in Florida and North Carolina, 5 pts in Michigan and Virginia, and 8 pts in New Mexico.
  • CCES/Yougov has released its final 50 state survey. In its national poll, it has Clinton up 4 pts, identical to the spread with the CBS/Yougov model. Ipsos/Reuters has also released its final 50 state survey.
  • Gravis has released a multi-state final polling report of Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, and Wisconsin. It has also released its final national poll, showing Clinton leading by 4 pts.
  • Ipsos/Reuters has released its final national poll, showing Clinton leading by 3 pts. Previously, she led by 4 pts.
  • Fox 2/Mitchell has released its presumably final tracking poll of Michigan, showing Clinton leading by 6 pts. Previously, she led by 5 pts.
  • Election Results: Dixville Notch in NH has historically voted at the stroke of midnight, along with Hart's Location and Millsfield. 8 voters have voted. 4 have voted for Clinton, 2 for Trump, 1 for Johnson, and a write-in for Mitt Romney. In Hart's Location, 17 have voted for Clinton, 14 for Trump, 3 for Johnson, 2 for Sanders, and 1 for a Kasich/Sanders ticket. In Millsfield, 4 have voted for Clinton, 16 have voted for Trump, and 1 for Sanders.
Previous Thread(s): 10/02 | 10/04 - 10/06 | 10/07 - 10/09 | 10/10 - 10/12 | 10/13 - 10/15 | 10/16 | 10/17 | 10/18 - 10/19 | 10/20 - 10/23 | 10/24 - 10/25 | 10/26 | 10/27 | 10/28 - 10/30 | 10/31 - 11/02 | 11/03 | 11/04 - 11/05 | 11/06
submitted by Isentrope to politics [link] [comments]

Polling Megathread [11/03]

Welcome to the /politics polling megathread! As discussed in our metathread, we will be hosting a daily polling megathread to cover the latest released polls. As the election draws near, more and more polls will be released, and we will start to see many new polls on a daily basis. This thread is intended to aggregate these posts so users can discuss the latest polls. Like we stated in the metathread, posts analyzing poll results will still be permitted.

National Poll of Polls and Projections

Poll of Polls
Poll of polls are averages of the latest national polls. Different sources differ in which polls they accept, and how long they keep them in their average, which accounts for the differences. They give a snapshot to what the polling aggregates say about the national race right now, to account for outliers or biases in individual polls.
We have included both the 4 way race (4 way), and head to head aggregates (H2H), as they are presented this way in most polls.
Aggregator Clinton % Trump % Johnson % Stein % Net Margin
RCP (4 way) 45.0 43.0 4.1 2.1 Clinton +2.0
RCP (H2H) 46.6 45.3 N/A N/A Clinton +1.3
PollsteHuffpo (4 way) 45.9 40.4 4.9 N/A Clinton +5.5
PollsteHuffpo (H2H) 47.5 42.0 N/A N/A Clinton +5.5
Projections
Projections are data-driven models that try to make a prediction of a candidate's prospects on election day. They will incorporate polling data to give an estimate on how that will affect a candidate's chance of winning. Note: The percentages given are not popular vote margins, but the probability that a given candidate will win the presidency on election night.
Model Clinton % Trump %
Fivethirtyeight Polls Plus* 66.0 34.0
Princeton Election Consortium** 97 3
NYT Upshot 86 14
Daily Kos Elections 92 8
* Fivethirtyeight also includes Now Cast and a Polls-Only mode. These are available on the website but are not reproduced here. The Now Cast projects the election outcome if the election were held today, whereas Polls-Only projects the election on November 8th without factoring in historical data and other factors.
** Sam Wang's Princeton Election Consortium includes both a "random drift" and Bayesian projection. We have reproduced the "random drift" values in our table.
The NYT Upshot page has also helpfully included links to other projection models, including "prediction" sites. Predictwise is a Vegas betting site and reflects what current odds are for a Trump or Clinton win. Charlie Cook, Stu Rothenburg, and Larry Sabato are veteran political scientists who have their own projections for the outcome of the election based on experience, and insider information from the campaigns themselves.

Daily Presidential Polls

Below, we have collected the latest national and state polls. The head to head (H2H) and 4 way surveys are both included. We include the likely voter (LVs) numbers, when possible, in this list, but users are welcome to read the polling reports themselves for the matchups among registered voters (RVs).
National Polls
Date Released/Pollster Clinton % Trump % Johnson % Stein % Net Margin
11/03, CBS/NYT 45 42 5 4 Clinton +3
11/03, Economist/Yougov 48 45 4 2 Clinton +3
11/03, ABC/WaPo 47 45 3 2 Clinton +2
11/03, IBD/TIPP 44 44 4 2 Tied
11/03, Rasmussen 42 45 4 1 Trump +3
11/03, LA Times/USC 43 48 N/A N/A Trump +5
State Polling
Date Released/Pollster State Clinton % Trump % Johnson % Stein % Net Margin
11/03, NBC/Marist Arizona 40 45 9 3 Trump +5
11/03, Saguaro Strat. (D?) Arizona 45 44 7 N/A Clinton +1
11/03, Arkansas Poll Arkansas 31 51 N/A N/A Trump +20
11/03, PPIC/Field California 53 33 4 3 Clinton +20
11/03, Magellan (R) Colorado 44 38 7 2 Clinton +6
11/03, Breitbart/Gravis Florida 49 46 2 1 Clinton +3
11/03, Opinion Savvy Florida 49 45 3 1 Clinton +4
11/03, NBC/Marist Georgia 44 45 8 N/A Trump +1
11/03, RABA Res. Iowa 41 44 5 2 Trump +3
11/03, Fox 2/Mitchell Michigan 47 44 4 1 Clinton +3
11/03, UMass-Lowell New Hampshire 44 44 5 2 Tied
11/03, Globe/Suffolk U. New Hampshire 42 42 5 2 Tied
11/03, ARG Research New Hampshire 43 48 N/A N/A Trump +5
11/03, WBUMassINC New Hampshire 39 40 10 3 Trump +1
11/03, Breitbart/Gravis Pennsylvania 47 46 3 2 Clinton +1
11/03, NBC/Marist Texas 40 49 6 2 Trump +9
11/03, Emerson** Texas 35 49 5 4 Trump +14
11/03, Emerson* Utah 20 40 3 2 Trump +12*
11/03, Monmouth U.* Utah 28 37 4 N/A Trump +9
11/03, Rasmussen* Utah 32 42 3 N/A Trump +10
Jill Stein is not listed on the ballot in Nevada, South Dakota, and Oklahoma. She is not on the ballot, but eligible as a write-in candidate in Indiana and North Carolina.
*In the Rasmussen poll, Evan McMullin polls third, receiving 21% of the vote. In the Monmouth poll, Evan McMullin polls third, receiving 24% of the vote. In the Emerson poll, Evan McMullin polls second, receiving 28% of the vote. Note that Emerson College only polls landlines.
**Emerson College only polls landlines. Standard pollster practice is to include as much as a 45% cell phone supplement or internet panel to account for changes in the electorate.
For more information on state polls, including trend lines for individual states, visit RCP and HuffPo/Pollster and click on states (note, for Pollster, you will have to search for the state in the search bar).
Update Log/Comments:
  • Any poll denoted with (R) or (D) refers to a pollster that is an internal pollster traditionally polling for one party or another. That doesn't mean their polls are wrong, but they do have a potential bias.
  • The Times Picayune poll was released showing Clinton leading by 5 pts. A UPI/C Voter poll was released showing Clinton up 1. Both are internet non-probability sample polls.
  • PPP has teased that it may release internal polling on behalf of a client in New Hampshire later today, presumably showing Clinton ahead. UMass-Lowell are expected to release a poll at 10:15PM EDT of NH. SurveyMonkey released a poll of NH showing Clinton up 10. Standard caveat about non-probability sample polls applies.
  • UMass-Lowell has released its (presumably final) poll of New Hampshire, showing the race tied. Its previous poll in early October showed Clinton up 6 pts.
  • RABA Research has released a poll of Iowa, showing Trump up 3 pts. In its previous poll in early September, Trump led by 1 pt.
Previous Thread(s): 10/02 | 10/04 - 10/06 | 10/07 - 10/09 | 10/10 - 10/12 | 10/13 - 10/15 | 10/16 | 10/17 | 10/18 - 10/19 | 10/20 - 10/23 | 10/24 - 10/25 | 10/26 | 10/27 | 10/28 - 10/30 | 10/31 - 11/02
submitted by Isentrope to politics [link] [comments]

Citrus Bowl Expert Picks: #14 Michigan vs #13 Alabama ... WagerTalk TV: Sports Picks and Betting Tips - YouTube CFB - Michigan St. Vs. Washington St. (Betting College Football) Ohio State vs Michigan 1972 goal line plays. - YouTube Michigan Wolverines vs Wisconsin Badgers Predictions and College Football Picks (Sept 21)

The Michigan Wolverines (5-2) entertain the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-1) at Michigan Stadium Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET in a key game for both teams. Notre Dame is ranked seventh after its narrow win over USC last week.. Michigan is ranked 20th in the Amway poll, dropping four sports after a seven-point loss to Penn State last week. Notre Dame at Michigan: Betting trends and tips USC Trojans vs Iowa Hawkeyes Matchup Friday, December 27, 2019 - 08:00 PM EST. Matchup Line History Track Bets. Betting consensus USC vs Western Michigan Vegas Game Preview & Betting Odds. The Trojans started out last year 1-3, which included a shocking 6-52 loss to Alabama in the season opener. That poor start led to head coach Clay Helton benching starting QB Max Browne in favor of red-shirt freshman Sam Darnold. Needless to say it paid off. NCAA Football Betting odds, point spreads, money lines and over under totals. How to use this page: View and compare odds from several top sports betting sites; Click the blue graph icon to view a line move chart from open until now; Green boxes indicate a line move happened in the last 5 minutes College Football Odds - Live College Football Betting Lines. October 11, 2020 - Compare and find the best College Football spreads and lines anywhere on the internet!

[index] [46047] [9567] [52474] [43954] [58235] [50696] [15108] [47045] [24360] [57323]

Citrus Bowl Expert Picks: #14 Michigan vs #13 Alabama ...

Ohio State went to Rose Bowl by keeping Michigan out of the endzone from inside 5 yard line. December 20, 2017. Pros feel they have a coaching mismatch in this game. They also expect a big line move before kickoff. Handicapped by Pro Bettor Brad Powers - with Steve Fezzik from the Pregame ... WagerTalk TV is a daily sports betting channel on YouTube that prepares our audience to make the most educated bets possible with free sports picks, includin... Michigan Wolverines vs Wisconsin Badgers Predictions, Picks, and Odds for their showdown on Saturday, September 21, 2019, from Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, WI. Direct from Las Vegas, Minty ... Danny Kanell, Chip Patterson and Barrett Sallee break down The Citrus Bowl between the Alabama Crimson Tide and The Michigan Wolverines with betting advice. ...

http://forex-turck.cryptohugemining.pw